论政党关系和谐的基本功能

政党关系和谐不仅是社会和谐的重要内容,也是社会和谐的重要保障.这种和谐政党关系有助于解决贫富差距过大问题,实现科学发展;有助于扩展有效政治参与渠道,维护政治稳定;有助于化解社会利益矛盾冲突,达到社会整合;有助于发挥民主党派监督作用,遏制腐败现象.     

Marriage and Fertility in Russia of Women Born between 1900 and 1960: A Cohort Analysis

In this paper we present a demographic analysisof the marital and fertility careers of Russianwomen, born between 1900 and 1960 and based onindividual retrospective life histories,collected in the most recent (five percent)microcensus of the Russian Federation from1994. It extends an earlier analysis of womenborn between 1910 and 1935. Although politicalevents often had profound effects on themarital life course, none of the observedcrises in Russia has succeeded in exerting adecisive influence on the fertility transition.The fertility decline started late, but takinginto account infant and child mortality thatcontinued to be very high until the fifties,all generations born since 1920 had a completedfertility near or below replacementlevel.     

Search With Dirichlet Priors: Estimation and Implications for Consumer Demand

This article is an empirical application of the search model with an unknown distribution, as introduced by Rothschild in 1974. For searchers who hold Dirichlet priors, we develop a novel characterization of optimal search behavior. Our solution delivers easily computable formulas for the ex-ante purchase probabilities as outcomes of search, as required by discrete-choice-based estimation. Using our method, we investigate the consequences of consumer learning on the properties of search-generated demand. Holding search costs constant, the search model from a known distribution predicts larger price elasticities, mainly for the lower-priced products. We estimate a search model with Dirichlet priors, on a dataset of prices and market shares of S&P 500 mutual funds. We find that the assumption of no uncertainty in consumer priors leads to substantial biases in search cost estimates.     

中国人口的不确定性研究

文章对2000年人口普查所反映的生育水平、出生性别比和人口年龄结构等主要人口指标存在的不确定性进行了梳理,并运用概率人口预测方法系统讨论了中国未来人口变动趋势过程中相关人口变量的不确定性问题。结果显示,当前对中国生育率水平、出生性别比和低龄儿童人口数量的估计都存在很大的差异。这些差异直接影响中国人口目前和未来的不确定性。     

反思历史与关怀现实的学者——历史学家王明珂专访

王明珂教授以其深厚的历史学功底和丰富的民族志田野经验,对西南少数民族,尤其是川西北羌族作了多年的考察和研究.近年来他的史学和人类学的互证方法,社会记忆、结构性叙事、表征、文类、社会场景和历史心性等方面的独到的研究,渐为中国史学界和人类学界所熟知.王明珂教授在访谈中,回顾了他在哈佛大学的受教经历,对典范史学的概念和方法的存疑,以及他在岷江上游的考察和史语所的工作经历,并且从其著述经历中阐释了他的史学和人类学跨学科的研究取向,这对目前中国历史人类学的发展具有一定的借鉴意义.     

Practical usage of O'Brien's OLS and GLS statistics in clinical trials

Multivariate techniques of O'Brien's OLS and GLS statistics are discussed in the context of their application in clinical trials. We introduce the concept of an operational effect size and illustrate its use to evaluate power. An extension describing how to handle covariates and missing data is developed in the context of Mixed models. This extension allowing adjustment for covariates is easily programmed in any statistical package including SAS. Monte Carlo simulation is used for a number of different sample sizes to compare the actual size and power of the tests based on O'Brien's OLS and GLS statistics.     

The “Question of the Ethnic Russians” in the Context of Ethnic Relations in the Russian Federation

The author examines the current and likely future position of the Russian ethnic group within Russia's systems of interethnic and ethnofederal relations. He also examines the meaning of the term nationalism as used in Russian politics and warns about the danger of growing imbalances in state regulation of federal and ethnic relations. He proposes a new federalism that would eliminate asymmetries in relations between ethnic Russians and other ethnic groups inhabiting the Russian Federation.