论共产党内部和谐对民主党派的示范引领作用

中国共产党长期重视党内和谐,这为民主党派内部和谐提供了示范,并且也会通过共产党的执政活动影响和引领民主党派内部和谐.民主党派可以吸取共产党内部和谐的经验,以共产党内部和谐为参照,不断推进民主党派内部和谐.     

SMUGGLING HUMANS: A THEORY OF DEBT‐FINANCED MIGRATION

We introduce financial constraints in a theoretical analysis of illegal immigration. Intermediaries finance the migration costs of wealth‐constrained migrants, who enter temporary servitude contracts to repay the debt. These debt/labor contracts are easier to enforce in the illegal than in the legal sector of the host country. Hence, when moving from the illegal to the legal sector becomes more costly—for instance, because of stricter deportation policies—fewer immigrants default on debt. This reduces the risks for intermediaries, who are then more willing to finance illegal migration. Stricter deportation policies may thus, ex ante, increase rather than decrease the flow of illegal migrants. Furthermore, stricter deportation policies worsen the skill composition of immigrants. While stricter border controls decrease overall immigration, they may result in an increase of debt‐financed migration. We also show that there are complementarities between employer sanctions and deportation policies. We use available evidence to check the empirical consistency of the theory. (JEL: J61, K42, O17)     

The Civilizational Measure “Krymnash” [“Crimea Is Ours”]

The article discusses the notion of “Russian Civilization,” and the ways in which it has been challenged in the last two centuries. Central to the discussion is the question of the extent to which there is a shared Slavic set of cultural beliefs, and the degree to which Russian/Slavic civilization is prepared to move from a state-centered to an individual-centered set of values.     

The Apparent Failure of Russia's Pronatalist Family Policies

Russia has a history of pronatalist policies dating back to the 1930s. Two sets of pronatalist measures were implemented during the past 40 years. The one designed in the early 1980s proved to be a clear failure. Instead of raising fertility, completed cohort fertility declined from 1.8 births per woman for the 1960 birth cohort to 1.6 for the 1968 cohort. The government of President Putin became concerned with the dire demographic conditions of high mortality and low fertility in Russia in the 1990s and early 2000s. A comprehensive set of pronatalist measures came into effect in January 2007. The period total fertility rate increased from 1.3 births per woman in 2006 to 1.6 in 2011, which the authorities view as an unqualified success. An unbiased demographic evaluation as well as analyses of Russian experts reveals that apparently the measures mainly caused a lowering of the age at birth and shortening of birth intervals. It appears that any real fertility increase is questionable, i.e. cohort fertility is not likely to increase appreciably. The recent pronatalist measures are likely to turn out to be a failure.     

A Near Electoral Majority of Pensioners: Prospects and Policies

In the first half of this century in many of today's developed countries, the proportion of voting age populations 65 years old or older will roughly double. As voting age populations age, the proportion of net contributors to national budgets (mainly through taxes) will fall and the proportion of net beneficiaries (mainly through public pension and health care benefits) will rise. By mid‐century in many wealthy countries, a near majority of electorates will become net beneficiaries of government expenditures, producing unprecedented changes in their political landscapes. We analyze three aspects of this phenomenon in Germany, Japan, and the United States.     

The end of population growth in Asia

This paper presents probabilistic population projections for five regions of Asia (South Asia, Central Asia, China region, Pacific OECD and Pacific Asia) and Asia as a whole. Over this century, Asia will experience very heterogeneous demographic development: Central Asia is expected to almost double in population and South Asia will become by far the world’s most populous region, rapidly surpassing the China region. Simultaneously, the Pacific OECD countries are likely to shrink in population size and experience extreme population ageing. The proportion of the population aged 60 and above in these countries (with Japan having the greatest weight) is expected to reach 50 per cent of the total population (with the 95 per cent uncertainty interval ranging from 35 to 61 per cent). The China region will experience a more rapid speed of ageing, with the proportion aged 60 and above expected to increase by a factor of four from 10 per cent in 2000 to 39 per cent in 2100.     

集体生态公益林补偿政策对林农职业分化的影响研究 ——以江西为例

利用对林农连续8年跟踪调查的纵向数据,运用系统广义估计方程(GEE)的Logistic面板回归模型,揭示变量之间的调节作用和内生性等关系.结果表明:(1)不同林分结构的家庭林地资源禀赋对林农职业分化决策存在差异化影响,经济林对集体林区林农从事林业生产的吸引力最强,用材林次之,竹林最弱.(2)不同林分结构林地对林农职业分化决策的吸附效应在生态公益林补偿政策作用下进一步分化,经济林、用材林被划为生态公益林促进林农务农,而竹林被划为生态公益林则促进林农非农就业.(3)通过地理位置交互项分析可知,区域偏远因素会削弱林地资源对集体林区林农务农的吸引力.基于此,提出全面提高森林质量、根据林分结构优化轮伐政策、分类实施生态公益林补偿政策及发展绿色林业等政策建议.     

Steepest descent algorithms in a space of measures

The paper describes descent type algorithms suitable for solving optimisation problems for functionals that depend on measures. We mention several examples of such problems that appear in optimal design, cluster analysis and optimisation of spatial distribution of coverage processes.     

百米深水桩基础钻孔灌注施工技术

根据现场施工实践,介绍了在三江口上游,受迳流和潮汐影响的感潮江段进行深钻孔灌注桩成孔、成桩的主要施工技术。     

基于GMDH-Bayesian-SEM的非常规油气开发技术效应研究——以致密气生产数据为例

地质因素与技术因素是影响非常规油气开发产能水平的主要类因素群,技术作用被认为是制约非常规油气开发质量的主导因素。以S地区致密气生产数据为研究样本,构建产能水平影响因素的结构方程模型（Structural Equation Model）,通过数据分组处理（GMDH）方法提取关键指标构建结构方程模型,并依据贝叶斯估计（Bayesian Estimation）探究地质参数与技术参数对非常规油气产能评价指标的影响效应,从定量角度对比分析技术作用的实际影响效果及其影响程度。研究表明:不同技术规模下,观测指标对地质作用与技术作用的影响效应不同;地质因素是影响产能水平的主导因素,明显超出技术因素的影响程度,从而对工程施工中强调技术因素的管理方式提出挑战。因此,加强非常规油气开发领域的地质研究是提升技术本土适应性水平的关键。