Development of a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Human Salmonellosis Through Household Consumption of Fresh Minced Pork Meat in Belgium

A quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) according to the Codex Alimentarius Principles is conducted to evaluate the risk of human salmonellosis through household consumption of fresh minced pork meat in Belgium. The quantitative exposure assessment is carried out by building a modular risk model, called the METZOON-model, which covers the pork production from farm to fork. In the METZOON-model, the food production pathway is split up in six consecutive modules: (1) primary production, (2) transport and lairage, (3) slaughterhouse, (4) postprocessing, (5) distribution and storage, and (6) preparation and consumption. All the modules are developed to resemble as closely as possible the Belgian situation, making use of the available national data. Several statistical refinements and improved modeling techniques are proposed. The model produces highly realistic results. The baseline predicted number of annual salmonellosis cases is 20,513 ( SD 9061.45). The risk is estimated higher for the susceptible population (estimate  4.713 × 10⁻⁵; SD 1.466 × 10⁻⁵  ) compared to the normal population  (estimate 7.704 × 10⁻⁶; SD 5.414 × 10⁻⁶)  and is mainly due to undercooking and to a smaller extent to cross-contamination in the kitchen via cook's hands.     

Ground beetle (Coleoptera: Carabidae) communities on green roofs in Switzerland: synthesis and perspectives

Urban Ecosystems - Green roofs have recently gained recognition for their potential contribution to urban ecosystems by providing, among other services, habitat for plants and animals, and stepping...     

Implementing a Multidimensional Poverty Measure Using Mixed Methods and a Participatory Framework

Recently, there have been advances in the development of multidimensional poverty measures. Work is needed however on how to implement such measures. This paper deals with the process of selecting dimensions and setting weights in multidimensional poverty measurement using qualitative and quantitative methods in a participatory framework. We estimate the multidimensional poverty measures developed by Alkire and Foster for a particular group: persons with psychiatric diagnoses in the United States. To select relevant dimensions and their relative ordering, two discussion groups are convened: one consisting of persons with lived-experience expertise and the other consisting of people with mental health service provision or research expertise. Several methods are used to convert dimension rankings into weights. The selection and ordering of dimensions differed between the two discussion groups, as did the resulting poverty measures. For instance, the poverty headcount using the dimensions and weights of the ‘lived experience’ group ranged from 20.61 to 26.96% as compared to a range of 18.62–33.19% using those of the ‘provider/researcher’ group. One of the main results of this study is that the Alkire Foster method is sensitive to the selection of dimensions and the methods used to derive rankings and weights. It points toward the limitation of relying exclusively on small scale qualitative methods for the selection and ranking of dimensions. In addition, the participatory framework used in this study was found to be essential in interpreting results, in particular with respect to the limitations of the data set in measuring relevant dimensions.     

DEPENDENCE AND INDEPENDENCE

The contributions that adult men and women make to households in terms of paid and unpaid work have undergone substantial change, particularly in respect of women's responsibility for income generation, and have been seen as part of the processes of individualization. Recent contributions to the literature have suggested that children are now acquiring independence earlier as part of those same processes. The paper uses qualitative methods to explore the way in which parents in two-parent families, where both are employed, perceive the risks attached to children's exercise of greater independence, how they seek to ‘manage’ those risks and how far the perceptions of parents accord with those of children. We find parents’ perceptions of risk to be strong, but to have little to do with working patterns. In addition, they are often at odds with the actual behaviour of the child. Risks are managed by negotiation, in which children played an active part. We are also able to make some preliminary comments on the difficulties of interpreting scale measures in relation to interview evidence.     

Estimation of parameters in incomplete data models defined by dynamical systems

Parametric incomplete data models defined by ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are widely used in biostatistics to describe biological processes accurately. Their parameters are estimated on approximate models, whose regression functions are evaluated by a numerical integration method. Accurate and efficient estimations of these parameters are critical issues. This paper proposes parameter estimation methods involving either a stochastic approximation EM algorithm (SAEM) in the maximum likelihood estimation, or a Gibbs sampler in the Bayesian approach. Both algorithms involve the simulation of non-observed data with conditional distributions using Hastings–Metropolis (H–M) algorithms. A modified H–M algorithm, including an original local linearization scheme to solve the ODEs, is proposed to reduce the computational time significantly. The convergence on the approximate model of all these algorithms is proved. The errors induced by the numerical solving method on the conditional distribution, the likelihood and the posterior distribution are bounded. The Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimation methods are illustrated on a simulated pharmacokinetic nonlinear mixed-effects model defined by an ODE. Simulation results illustrate the ability of these algorithms to provide accurate estimates.     

Alliances Across Ideologies: Networking with NGOs in a Tourism Dispute in Northern Bali

This paper explores how local actors form alliances and join networks with (inter-)national NGOs working on religious, political and environmental issues in a dispute over tourism development in northern Bali. All of these actors construct a particular concept of landscape which serves their respective goals to contest or defend the planned large-scale tourism projects. Three of these conceptual framings are identified as playing a major role in the conflict: (1) a spiritual Hindu-Balinese perspective mobilised by tourism protesters and NGOs; in alliance with (2) views on landscape based on sustainability and conservation powerfully represented by international NGOs; clashing with (3) a material and economic view of landscape by international investors, who consider land primarily as a commodity generating economic value. These three contrasting views and resulting networks provide an instrument of moral and political pressure for the contending parties in this conflict over natural resources and tourism development.     

Middle class fractions, childcare and the 'relational' and 'normative' aspects of class practices

The emphasis in class research remains on the structural aspects of class, class processes are neglected. This paper focuses upon some relational and normative aspects of class through an examination of social divisions produced and constructed within middle class families’ choices of childcare. Working with data from two contrasting settings in London (Battersea and Stoke Newington) three issues are addressed in the paper; the extent to which childcare arrangements both substantively and structurally position children differently within long term educational careers; the ways in which the use of choice in a market system of child care and education, works to produce patterns of social closure that quietly discriminate via the collectivist criterion of class and racial membership; and the ways in which child care choices also point‐up and perpetuate subtle distinctions and tensions of values and lifestyle within the middle class, between class factions. Concepts drawn from the work of Bourdieu are deployed throughout.     

PUBLIC WEALTH,PUBLIC HEALTH,AND PRIVATE STEALTH: EXAMINING THE BLACK MARKET IN CIGARETTES IN AUSTRALIA

Taxes on tobacco provide a significant income for the Australian government — $5.1 billion in 2001. At the same time, health officials are making strenuous efforts to reduce smoking, particularly among teenagers. Some economists suggest that raising taxes on tobacco will produce more revenue while at the same time lowering smoking rates, particularly among youths who have less discretionary spending power than adults. But a by‐product of excise tax in Australia has been the emerging market in “chop‐chop,” tobacco diverted from legal channels by growers who receive considerably higher prices for a part of their yield than they can obtain from legal manufacturers. The article details this situation and suggests that only bold solutions may be able to reduce tensions in tax policies, smoking rates and the “chop‐chop” black market.     

Developing a framework for monitoring child poverty: results from a study in Uganda

In 2002 Save the Children UK carried out a study of child poverty in Uganda, as part of the on‐going Uganda Participatory Poverty Assessment Programme. Using participants from all regions of the country, the researchers asked children about their perceptions of poverty and anti‐poverty strategies, as well as questioning adult key informants about trends in child poverty, vulnerable groups and the effectiveness of government policies in tackling child poverty. This article reports on one aspect of the study, looking at the different indicators that children use to assess poverty, and comparing these with official poverty monitoring indicators. It finds that while some areas—notably, health, education and water and sanitation—are well documented, others, which may be as, or more significant to children's welfare, such as child abuse or quality of parental care, are almost totally neglected. A more holistic framework for assessing child poverty is proposed.