An investigation of duration dependence in the American stock market cycle

This paper investigates the duration dependence of the US stock market cycles. A new classification method for bull and bear market regimes based on the crossing of the market index and its moving average is proposed. We show evidence of duration dependence in whole cycles. The half cycles, however, are found to be duration independent. More importantly, we find that the degree of duration dependence of the US stock market cycles has dropped after the launch of the NASDAQ index.     

Objects, Words, and Bodies in Space: Bringing Materiality into Cultural Analysis

What can actor-network theory’s approach to analyzing objects offer to cultural sociology? To answer this question we ask a more specific one: How does materiality affect people’s experience of art in a museum exhibition? Research at two museums suggests that non-human agents—object and words—interact with human bodies to choreograph the art encounter. This process works through interactions between two processes of emplacement: physical position and cognitive location. Position guides location in the process of meaning-making, a relationship mediated by three mechanisms: distance, legibility, and orientation.     

Collateral coverage: media images of Afghan refugees, 2001

The paper is concerned with media coverage of the on-going refugee crisis in Afghanistan. It begins by looking at how the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center of 11 September 2001 had the result of stimulating renewed media interest in Afghan refugees. Paying special regard to the role of visual images in the reporting of disasters, the paper reviews the narrative strategies adopted by television news. It considers the factors that have instigated media response by examining some general issues arising from the media coverage of disasters. While the central focus of the study is BBC Television News Special Reports on the Afghan refugee crisis, selective comparisons are made with other television broadcast channels, Sky News and Euronews.

Based on the Afghan case study, I propose three main constituent factors contributing to the likelihood of effective media coverage of a refugee crisis. Firstly, in order to attract Western press coverage it is necessary for the crisis to be of such a magnitude that it cannot be ignored; or else it is necessary for it to be perceived as having some obvious connection with Western concerns. Secondly, the story will gain airtime if the nature of the crisis is such that it produces dramatic imagery – pictures with impact. Finally, if the style of the media coverage is sufficiently innovative it will stimulate interest in the viewers. The paper concludes with a critical review of media examples that break away from conventional news formulae.     

A model selection approach for the identification of quantitative trait loci in experimental crosses

Summary. We consider the problem of identifying the genetic loci (called quantitative trait loci (QTLs)) contributing to variation in a quantitative trait, with data on an experimental cross. A large number of different statistical approaches to this problem have been described; most make use of multiple tests of hypotheses, and many consider models allowing only a single QTL. We feel that the problem is best viewed as one of model selection. We discuss the use of model selection ideas to identify QTLs in experimental crosses. We focus on a back-cross experiment, with strictly additive QTLs, and concentrate on identifying QTLs, considering the estimation of their effects and precise locations of secondary importance. We present the results of a simulation study to compare the performances of the more prominent methods.     

Emergent Management Strategies in a Public Agency: A Case Study of Alternative Fuel Vehicles

The ability of public organizations to invest in emerging technologies is dependent upon the degree to which they can effectively manage the risks of being a lead-user in a political environment. However, little is known about the dimensions and implications of the different forms of risk faced by innovative public organizations as well as the strategies employed to manage them. This paper addresses these issues by studying how one public agency implements a program of replacing its transportation fleet with alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs).

The strange history and problematic future of the Australian census

When looking back into the first century of Australian history following white settlement we often rely on the records of musters, listings and censuses to provide information on individuals and communities. The first census of New South Wales in 1828 was little more than a directory of names of settlers and settlements, but both professional historians and genealogists regard it as invaluable. As the scientific principles of censuses were developed over the course of the nineteenth century the information collected became ever more important for social scientists and economists. In the twentieth century, professional historians in the UK and USA opened wholly new perspectives on society by looking to the census for records of common families who were not recorded in the newspapers or diaries of the time, and the community structures in which they lived. Unfortunately such innovations have not been possible in Australia. The individual records of most colonial and all Commonwealth censuses are not to be found in the libraries or archives. The destruction of original census records in Australia has been the result of misadventure and government policies reflecting great fear about the impact of popular privacy concerns on public compliance with the census operations. This paper explores the history behind the anomalous practice of destroying census records in Australia, and poses questions about the role of the census in the writing of histories of Australian people and Australian communities.     

A New Empirically Weighted Monetary Aggregate for the United States

This article uses an approach to long-run modeling proposed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (2001) to develop an empirically weighted broad monetary aggregate for the United States and to demonstrate the advantages of this type of aggregate from a monetary policy perspective. The new empirically weighted aggregate performs well in out-of-sample nominal income and inflation forecasting tests, and in respect of the latter is clearly superior to simple sum M2, Divisia M2, and simple sum M2+ (which includes stock and bond mutual funds) over the period 1991–2001.