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991.
Thomas A. Weber 《Theory and Decision》2010,69(2):257-288
We consider a confidence parametrization of binary information sources in terms of appropriate likelihood ratios. This parametrization
is used for Bayesian belief updates and for the equivalent comparison of binary experiments. In contrast to the standard parametrization
of a binary information source in terms of its specificity and its sensitivity, one of the two confidence parameters is sufficient
for a Bayesian belief update conditional on a signal realization. We introduce a confidence-augmented receiver operating characteristic
for comparisons of binary experiments for a class of “balanced” decision problems, relative to which the confidence order
offers a higher resolution than Blackwell’s informativeness order.
Where observation is concerned, Chance favors only the prepared mind. —Louis Pasteur (1822–1895).相似文献
992.
This paper considers settings where populations of units may experience recurrent events, termed failures for convenience,
and where the units are subject to varying levels of usage. We provide joint models for the recurrent events and usage processes,
which facilitate analysis of their relationship as well as prediction of failures. Data on usage are often incomplete and
we show how to implement maximum likelihood estimation in such cases. Random effects models with linear usage processes and
gamma usage processes are considered in some detail. Data on automobile warranty claims are used to illustrate the proposed
models and estimation methodology. 相似文献
993.
Klaus-Peter Kistner 《Zeitschrift für Betriebswirtschaft》2011,81(4):55
Production Management often tried to apply queueing models to describe the flow of products and parts. These approaches usually apply very simple queueing models. Due to mathematical problems implied by general waiting line models, an adaptation to real life problems fails often. In this paper, some simple models discussed in production management are presented and it is shown why they failed to be generalized. Afterwards, we try to find a way how to model the simple case of flow shop production using generalized queueing models: First decomposition of serial waiting lines and approximation of the system by a sequence of independent stations. Afterwards the approach of recent literature to consider again the entire system simultaneously is sketched, and it is argued that these approaches are restricted as well to small problems 相似文献
994.
995.
Daniel Boduszek Gary Adamson Mark Shevlin Philip Hyland Ashling Bourke 《Journal Of Human Behavior In The Social Environment》2013,23(1):14-28
Previous research suggests a direct relationship between criminal friends and criminal thinking style; however, social identity theory proposes that identity mediates the impact of social group members on development of thinking styles. This research project is the first attempt to empirically test the mediating role of criminal social identity in the development of criminal thinking styles within a recidivistic prison sample (N = 312). The structural equation model of criminal thinking style presented and tested in this study supports the central predictions of social identity theory, with findings demonstrating an indirect effect of antisocial friend associations on criminal thinking through in-group affect and in-group ties with criminal in-group members that reflect two of three dimensions of the measure of criminal social identity applied in the current study. Further implications in relation to theory and previous studies are discussed. 相似文献
996.
Andy Sharma 《Population research and policy review》2011,30(6):817-838
I test if selective out-migration of unhealthy seniors explains why disability rates are so much lower for Florida, as compared
to the national average. This particular area of research is timely given the significant demographic changes relating to
aging. Moreover, this study contributes to the body of literature examining migration with respect to disability and widowhood.
Using State Federal Information Processing Standard (FIPS) and Public Use Microdata Areas (PUMA), I create national maps showing
disability rates for the following age-groups: 50–59, 60–69, and 70+. After creating maps in ARCGIS and conducting univariate
and clustering analysis on mobility disability and personal care limitation, I employ multinomial logit (MNL) analysis to
test if individuals with disability are more likely to out-migrate from Florida. The regression analyses lend support to the
relaxed Litwak and Longino (The Gerontologist, 27(3): 266–272, 1987) second-move hypothesis, which claims individuals with progressively worse health are more likely to undertake another move
to be closer to family and friends. I state “relaxed” because the data does not allow one to determine the reason for migration—only
that migration occurred during the past year. This research informs policy-makers to recognize that elderly in better health
may migrate to places such as Arizona and Florida due to amenity-seeking behavior, but unhealthy elderly are more likely to
leave these states due to assistance-seeking behavior. This out-migration can place excess demand on health services for the
incoming regions, which requires state and local government to ensure resources are in place. Also noteworthy, my results
are less likely to be flawed by erroneous age and sex data in the public use microdata samples (IPUMS) since I stack the 2006
and 2007 American Community Survey (ACS). A recent working studies by Alexander et al. (Inaccurate age and sex data in the
Census PUMS files: Evidence and implications. Munich: CESifo, 2010) shows inaccuracies in the IPUMS for the 1 and 5% 2000 Census, the 2003–2006 ACS, the 2005–2007 3-year ACS, and the 2004–2009
current population survey (CPS) files. 相似文献
997.
Many studies have documented the benefits of religious involvement. Indeed, highly religious people tend to be healthier,
live longer, and have higher levels of subjective well-being. While religious involvement offers clear benefits to many, in
this paper we explore whether it may also be detrimental to some. Specifically, we examine in detail the relation between
religious involvement and subjective well-being. We first replicate prior findings showing a positive relation between religiosity
and subjective well-being. However, our results also suggest that this relation may be more complex than previously thought.
While fervent believers benefit from their involvement, those with weaker beliefs are actually less happy than those who do
not ascribe to any religion—atheists and agnostics. These results may help explain why—in spite of the well-documented benefits
of religion—an increasing number of people are abandoning their faith. As commitment wanes, religious involvement may become
detrimental to well-being, and individuals may be better off seeking new affiliations. 相似文献
998.
Ralph Hakkert 《Journal of Population Research》2011,28(1):15-30
Maternal mortality measurement through special census questions will be a common practice in the 2010 census round. To check
this information or make it cause-specific, some countries have experimented with follow-up surveys containing verbal autopsies
or triangulation with administrative data. However, follow-up studies can be costly and not without complications. In order
to assess the benefits, two such experiences are discussed in detail (Bolivia, 2002; and Mozambique 2007–2008) and two others
mentioned more briefly (Islamic Republic of Iran, 1996; and Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, 2008). In the former, several
problems were apparent. In Mozambique, the follow-up survey used a cluster sample of 4.5% of deaths, from all causes. This
design was adequate for the more common causes, but not for maternal mortality. Another problem was the large proportion of
invalid cases (35.1%, plus 16% not verifiable) and the likelihood that there was a similar proportion of omitted deaths. The
Bolivian census generated many invalid cases and missing ages, due in part to the flawed design of the questionnaire. This
overburdened the follow-up, so that only 15% of the census deaths of women of reproductive age unrelated to pregnancy could
be investigated. Once the false positives were eliminated, the results seem consistent with Growth Balance analyses, but the
many classification errors compromise confidence in the results. Despite this mixed record of outcomes, it is believed that
carrying out a limited number of similar studies in the current census round may be valuable, if appropriate lessons are learned
from these experiences. 相似文献
999.
Twenty Asperger’s Syndrome (AS) participants were compared with 20 matched neurotypical controls in their decoding of postural
cues of boredom, interest, and disagreement. On a nonverbal matching task, the AS group performed as accurately as the controls,
whereas on a verbal labeling task, AS participants made significantly more mistakes in labeling bored postures. Response times
of the AS group were significantly slower than controls in their judgments of all three attitudes on both tasks, with the
exception only of disagreeing postures on the verbal labeling task. It was hypothesized that these slower response times may
reflect a feature-based cognitive processing style by AS participants. Proposed practical recommendations are to train AS
individuals in the recognition of boredom, and to improve the speed with which they can recognize different attitudes. 相似文献
1000.
Geraldine O’Sullivan 《Social indicators research》2011,101(1):155-172
The construct of eustress was studied alongside hope and self-efficacy, to explore how these constructs are related to life
satisfaction among undergraduates. Questionnaires were administered to undergraduates to test the hypotheses that (1) as eustress
levels increase, so will life satisfaction levels; (2) when eustress, hope, and self-efficacy are examined together, they
will predict life satisfaction better than eustress alone; (3) eustress, hope, and self-efficacy will all be positively correlated
with life satisfaction; and (4) self-efficacy will be the most positively correlated with life satisfaction. The results revealed
a significant positive correlation between eustress and life satisfaction. A Hierarchical Linear Regression analysis revealed
significant results supporting hypotheses 2 and 3, but not hypothesis 4. Results indicated that hope is the best predictor
of life satisfaction. The work reported provides a reliable tool for measuring eustress, examines eustress in a new way at
the academic level, and provides helpful information about student wellness to college administrators. 相似文献