Simulation of close-to-reality population data for household surveys with application to EU-SILC

Statistical simulation in survey statistics is usually based on repeatedly drawing samples from population data. Furthermore, population data may be used in courses on survey statistics to explain issues regarding, e.g., sampling designs. Since the availability of real population data is in general very limited, it is necessary to generate synthetic data for such applications. The simulated data need to be as realistic as possible, while at the same time ensuring data confidentiality. This paper proposes a method for generating close-to-reality population data for complex household surveys. The procedure consists of four steps for setting up the household structure, simulating categorical variables, simulating continuous variables and splitting continuous variables into different components. It is not required to perform all four steps so that the framework is applicable to a broad class of surveys. In addition, the proposed method is evaluated in an application to the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC).     

Extension,Compression, and Beyond: A Unique Classification System for Mortality Evolution Patterns

A variety of literature addresses the question of how the age distribution of deaths changes over time as life expectancy increases. However, corresponding terms such as extension, compression, or rectangularization are sometimes defined only vaguely, and statistics used to detect certain scenarios can be misleading. The matter is further complicated because mixed scenarios can prevail, and the considered age range can have an impact on observed mortality patterns. In this article, we establish a unique classification framework for realized mortality scenarios that allows for the detection of both pure and mixed scenarios. Our framework determines whether changes of the deaths curve over time show elements of extension or contraction; compression or decompression; left- or right-shifting mortality; and concentration or diffusion. The framework not only can test the presence of a particular scenario but also can assign a unique scenario to any observed mortality evolution. Furthermore, it can detect different mortality scenarios for different age ranges in the same population. We also present a methodology for the implementation of our classification framework and apply it to mortality data for U.S. females.     

How can multimodality be used to design usable interfaces in IPS2 for older employees?

Main objective of the recently started collaborative research project SFB/TR29 B4 is to provide cross-generational assistance to human operators working in industrial product-service systems (IPS(2)). By combining the ideas of action-specificity and multimodality a more immediate and purposeful reaction towards warnings is assumed. For this purpose, an action-specific warning system in form of a glove has been developed. It provides either visual, auditory or haptic feedback or a combination of all modalities. In a first study this prototype was compared with a conventional warning system, where multimodal devices were directly mounted to the machine. The test scenario used in this study is the 'changing of a spindle' on a replica of a micro milling machine. It was conducted with 42 participants. The experimental design is a within-design in terms of the two warning systems and a between-design concerning the three modalities and its combinations. Results of the two-way ANOVA with repeated measures on both factors 'system' and 'modality' show a significant main effect for the 'modality' and a significant interaction effect between both factors. Especially the haptic warnings on the action-specific glove were described as "that kind of warning, which evokes the fastest response".     

Negotiating the Organizational Effectiveness of Social Ventures among Multiple Stakeholders

When planning their social ventures, entrepreneurs generally need to consider multiple stakeholders with conflicting views of organizational effectiveness. We propose a scoring technique that is often used for the analysis of multiple-issue negotiations to analyze and manage the stakeholder conflicts. We show how the quantitative assessment of stakeholders’ preferences results in a one-dimensional subjective measure of organizational effectiveness for each stakeholder. Our approach complements recent research by contributing to a quantitative discussion of organizational effectiveness. Due to typical structural features of the employed scoring template, we are able to derive general principles concerning the conflict structure and the interaction of multiple stakeholders. We find that an increase in the number of stakeholders required for an agreement tends to decrease the perceived organizational effectiveness for the initial negotiators. On the other hand, the multitude of possible agreements is also reduced, thereby sharpening the focus on acceptable proposals to the stakeholders involved.     

Multistate modelling extended by behavioural rules: An application to migration

We propose to extend demographic multistate models by adding a behavioural element: behavioural rules explain intentions and thus transitions. Our framework is inspired by the Theory of Planned Behaviour. We exemplify our approach with a model of migration from Senegal to France. Model parameters are determined using empirical data where available. Parameters for which no empirical correspondence exists are determined by calibration. Age- and period-specific migration rates are used for model validation. Our approach adds to the toolkit of demographic projection by allowing for shocks and social influence, which alter behaviour in non-linear ways, while sticking to the general framework of multistate modelling. Our simulations yield that higher income growth in Senegal leads to higher emigration rates in the medium term, while a decrease in fertility yields lower emigration rates.     

Stabilität und Wandel der nationalen Identität in der deutschen BevölkerungContinuity and change of national identity in the German public

In this article we study the content dimension of German national identity at three points in time. We run multigroup confirmatory factor analyses with data from the ISSP modules on national identity to demonstrate that in 1995, 2004, and 2014 three distinct latent dimensions can be identified in the meaning Germans attach to their nation, namely civic pride, ethnoculturalism, and chauvinism. These dimensions correlate substantially higher in 1995 than in 2004 and 2014. Exploratory latent class analyses show both continuity and change in the combination of positions citizens manifest on these dimensions. We discuss the implications of these findings for the conceptualization and measurement of national identities as well as for the development of German citizens’ relationship to their nation in the period studied.     

Gender inequality in the one percent: A look under the hood of high incomes in Germany

Gender differences in economic outcomes are important topics in social science research. However, the study of gender differences among economic elites—“the top one percent”—has received surprisingly little attention, likely also due to a lack of empirical data. This paper investigates gender differences in individual and household income among the top one percent of individual monthly net incomes and top two percent of net household incomes using data from the German Microcensus from 2006 to 2016 covering more than 3.3 million individuals. I find that women account for only around 14% of the one percent in individual incomes. Additionally, regarding the household level, women's incomes are sufficient to achieve two percent status in fewer than 10% of all households. Both numbers did hardly change over the decade from 2006 to 2016. Furthermore, women's pathways to belonging to a high-income household are far more dependent on their partner's education and employment status than men's. Overall, the findings thus show dramatic gender differences among the German economic elite that do not narrow over time.     

The Imperial Origins of Nation-States: Revisiting Hannah Arendt's Genealogy of Totalitarianism1

Against the backdrop of World War II, Hannah Arendt explores the origins of totalitarian rule, arguing that they date back to as early as the late nineteenth century. Alongside anti-Semitism, overseas colonialism and pan-nationalism paved the way for the totalitarian regimes that crystallized a few decades later by weakening the system of nation-states from within. Using the example of Germany, I will argue in this article that we need to revise Arendt's narrative. It focuses too narrowly on how nationalism turned into its categorical opposite, imperialism, neglecting the complementary dynamics of how empire facilitated the nation-state. Only then can we acknowledge the deep rupture that World War I brought about when it created in its wake a dynamic that culminated in the destruction of European nation-states.