“The shock of widowhood”? Evidence from an Italian population (Parma, 1989–2000)

The purpose of our study is to assess the influence of socio-demographic factors on overall and cause-specific mortality of elderly people of Parma aged 65. In particular, the paper aims at exploring the relation between mortality and living arrangement in association with marital status. Data were obtained from the General Registry Office of Parma and from the death certificates issued by the Local Health District from 1989 to 2000. A logistic regression was performed using longitudinal data. In the male population, living alone and being never married appears to be the worst condition, while living with the wife repsresents a caring situation. In the female population, the major risk of death is associated to living with others than a spouse, while a reduced risk was detected for widows living alone. This was a common and shared result for both overall mortality and many of the causes of death here considered. The condition of widows and widowers living alone does not appear to constitute a particularly serious risk among the elderly population of Parma. Yet, in the female population the association between living alone and the status of widow seems playing a protective role. This result should be interpreted in the light of the social policy of services and support for the elderly pursued by local authorities.     

Principal components of sample estimates: an approach through symbolic data analysis

This paper deals with the analysis of datasets, where the subjects are described by the estimated means of a p-dimensional variable. Classical statistical methods of data analysis do not treat measurements affected by intrinsic variability, as in the case of estimates, so that the heterogeneity induced among subjects by this condition is not taken into account. In this paper a way to solve the problem is suggested in the context of symbolic data analysis, whose specific aim is to handle data tables where single valued measurements are substituted by complex data structures like frequency distributions, intervals, and sets of values. A principal component analysis is carried out according to this proposal, with a significant improvement in the treatment of information.     

Bayeslan Credit Ratings

In this contribution we aim at improving ordinal variable selection in the context of causal models for credit risk estimation. In this regard, we propose an approach that provides a formal inferential tool to compare the explanatory power of each covariate and, therefore, to select an effective model for classification purposes. Our proposed model is Bayesian nonparametric thus keeps the amount of model specification to a minimum. We consider the case in which information from the covariates is at the ordinal level. A noticeable instance of this regards the situation in which ordinal variables result from rankings of companies that are to be evaluated according to different macro and micro economic aspects, leading to ordinal covariates that correspond to various ratings, that entail different magnitudes of the probability of default. For each given covariate, we suggest to partition the statistical units in as many groups as the number of observed levels of the covariate. We then assume individual defaults to be homogeneous within each group and heterogeneous across groups. Our aim is to compare and, therefore select, the partition structures resulting from the consideration of different explanatory covariates. The metric we choose for variable comparison is the calculation of the posterior probability of each partition. The application of our proposal to a European credit risk database shows that it performs well, leading to a coherent and clear method for variable averaging of the estimated default probabilities.     

THE RIGHT AMOUNT OF TRUST

We investigate the relationship between individual trust and individual economic performance. We find that individual income is hump‐shaped in a measure of intensity of trust beliefs. Our interpretation is that highly trusting individuals tend to assume too much social risk and to be cheated more often, ultimately performing less well than those with a belief close to the mean trustworthiness of the population. However, individuals with overly pessimistic beliefs avoid being cheated, but give up profitable opportunities, therefore underperforming. The cost of either too much or too little trust is comparable to the income lost by forgoing college. Our findings hold in large‐scale international survey data, as well as inside a country with high‐quality institutions, and are also supported by experimental findings. (JEL: A1, A12, D1, O15, Z1)     

LONG‐TERM PERSISTENCE

We study whether a positive historical shock can generate long‐term persistence in development. We show that Italian cities that achieved self‐government in the Middle Ages have a higher level of civic capital today than similar cities in the same area that did not. The size of this effect increases with the length of the period of independence and its intensity. This effect persists even after accounting for the fact that cities did not become independent randomly. We conjecture that the Middle‐Age experience of self‐government fostered self‐efficacy beliefs—beliefs in one's own ability to complete tasks and reach goals—and this positive attitude, transmitted across generations, enhances civic capital today. Consistently, we find that fifth‐graders in former free city‐states exhibit stronger self‐efficacy beliefs and that these beliefs are correlated with a higher level of civic capital. (JEL: O43, P16, O10)     

The Dynamics of International Competitiveness: First Results from an Analysis at the Industry Level

The paper uses the key role of technology as starting point in determining trade flows and international competitiveness at industry and country level as a growing number of theoretical contributions and empirical verifications have recognized over the past decade. The paper uses a set of new data on trade, production, technology and costs at industry level for a certain number of countries to relate trade performance to a set of different economic and technological factors across countries and industrial sectors since the early 1970s. A single model of trade specialization is applied to the data in order to establish the impact of innovation, costs and country specific factors to overall performance, both in the short run and the long run, via a panel data analysis. Model specification follows the cointegration approach, where a long-run cointegrating vector is estimated along with the dynamic adjustment towards long-run equilibrium. The paper presents some preliminary results, related to a certain number of different industrial sectors for the major industrialized countries.     

Differences in life expectancy by education and occupation in Italy, 1980-94: indirect estimates from maternal and paternal orphanhood

In the present study, we use the modified orphanhood method to analyse mortality differences by socio-economic status in Italy. This technique permits the indirect estimation of adult mortality from survey-based information on parents' survival in developed populations and helps to overcome several limitations of conventional studies on mortality differences by social class. We estimate a time series of life tables by education and occupation and analyse the differences in life expectancy by socio-economic status along with their changes between 1980-84, 1985-89, and 1990-94. Whereas mortality differences between the highest social class and the other socio-economic status groups increased among men, they decreased among women. We speculate about the reasons for these sex-specific trends and evaluate the application of indirect estimation techniques to the populations of developed countries.     

The relational costs of crossing class lines

How do low socioeconomic status students navigate cross-class interactions in extremely unequal contexts? Previous research has described the high costs of college integration for underprivileged students, which in turn, negatively impact academic performance and general wellbeing. These studies tend to concentrate on cultural capital costs, such as catching up with assumed middle-class or elite capital and dealing with two worlds. Less has been said about social capital costs, the costs of making friends, especially more privileged friends. Through 61 in-depth interviews with various types of students as part of a broader ethnographic fieldwork, this article analyses the experiences of low-income scholarship holders in an elite institution in a very unequal society, Colombia. Rather than isolating themselves or resorting to safe homophilic relations, they faced their new elite environment engaging with the hidden relational cost of making friends with more affluent students. In so doing, they had to overcome fears and experiences of discrimination and micro-aggressions, as well as cultural and economic capital barriers, and employed either camouflaging or disclosure strategies, sometimes becoming culturally and socially omnivorous. Symbolic belonging to the institution and the acquisition of middle-class cultural capital were among the benefits that made overcoming the costs worthy. Our results shed light on what institutions can do to reduce the costs for underprivileged students and, theoretically, unveil an important mechanism and barrier for social mobility: building cross-class ties.     

Integration of model-based recursive partitioning with bias reduction estimation: a case study assessing the impact of Oliver’s four factors on the probability of winning a basketball game

AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis - In this contribution, we investigate the importance of Oliver’s Four Factors, proposed in the literature to identify a basketball team’s...