Profile likelihood approaches for semiparametric copula and frailty models for clustered survival data

ABSTRACT

In clustered survival data, the dependence among individual survival times within a cluster has usually been described using copula models and frailty models. In this paper we propose a profile likelihood approach for semiparametric copula models with different cluster sizes. We also propose a likelihood ratio method based on profile likelihood for testing the absence of association parameter (i.e. test of independence) under the copula models, leading to the boundary problem of the parameter space. For this purpose, we show via simulation study that the proposed likelihood ratio method using an asymptotic chi-square mixture distribution performs well as sample size increases. We compare the behaviors of the two models using the profile likelihood approach under a semiparametric setting. The proposed method is demonstrated using two well-known data sets.     

Olympic Films and Public Memory

How is our memory of mega‐events structured? This article investigates the relationship between cinema and the Olympic Games. To this end, it first unravels the historical origins of the strong link between the two, as both are symbolic products of the 20th century. The Olympics reaffirm the image of the modern nation‐state; the cinematic medium visually represents the Games as spectacle. Leni Riefenstahl's film, Olympia (1938), recorded at the 1936 Berlin Olympic Games, supplies the most enduring imagery of this type. In addition to Riefenstahl's thoughts and methods, this study delves into Kon Ichikawa's Tokyo Olympiad (1965), which was influenced by Olympia. Ichikawa's film, which reflects his artistry and showcases his various skills, won critical acclaim and, intriguingly, precipitated the “document or art” controversy that involved the Japanese state and the mass media. Whether document or work of art, this film has supplied the public with imagery for the 1964 Tokyo Olympic Games—various images that most of us recognize—and thereby played a key role in constituting our memory of them. Therefore, our experience of the Games is a mediated experience through the construction of our public memory. Our memory culture is composed of “prosthetic memories” that are technologically assembled through cinema and act as Freudian “screen memories.”     

Career Education in Japan: Its Current Status and Condition

The Japanese vocational, or career, guidance movement dates back to 1915 and derives largely from advances and developments in the United States system of vocational guidance. Extracurricular or social welfare activities in the U.S. initially spawned vocational guidance efforts and programming in Japan. Subsequently, the Japanese Ministry of Education included vocational guidance in its primary curriculum as early as 1920. At that time, graduates of Japanese educational programs received placement guidance services. By the decade spanning 1930 to 1940, however, policies resulting from the war between Japan and China, as well as from World War II interrupted vocational guidance programming established in educational settings. In 1947, on the heels of the recently ended war, the Japanese Constitution, the Fundamental Law of Education, and the School Education Law were established to regularize the 6-3-3-4 school system. Specifically, the Japanese Constitution prescribed “freedom of vocational choice,” the Fundamental Law of Education advanced the “idea of personal accomplishment,” and the School of Education Law (Article 36, 42) decreed that a primary purpose of the secondary school concerned cultivating students' abilities to make career decisions. In support of this decree, the Ministry of Education published a Course of Study in 1949, which directly addressed vocational guidance in the schools. Moreover, by 1953 vocational guidance educators appeared in secondary schools and in 1958 the term career guidance replaced vocational guidance consequent to the School of Education Law.     

Multivariate normal distribution approaches for dependently truncated data

Many statistical methods for truncated data rely on the independence assumption regarding the truncation variable. In many application studies, however, the dependence between a variable X of interest and its truncation variable L plays a fundamental role in modeling data structure. For truncated data, typical interest is in estimating the marginal distributions of (L, X) and often in examining the degree of the dependence between X and L. To relax the independence assumption, we present a method of fitting a parametric model on (L, X), which can easily incorporate the dependence structure on the truncation mechanisms. Focusing on a specific example for the bivariate normal distribution, the score equations and Fisher information matrix are provided. A robust procedure based on the bivariate t-distribution is also considered. Simulations are performed to examine finite-sample performances of the proposed method. Extension of the proposed method to doubly truncated data is briefly discussed.     

The Association Between Generalized Trust and Physical and Psychological Health Across Societies

This paper estimates a Multidimensional Poverty Index for Gauteng province of South Africa. The Alkire–Forster method is applied on Quality of Life survey data for 2011 and 2013 which offer an excellent opportunity for estimating poverty at smaller geographical areas. The results suggest that the Multidimensional Poverty Index for Gauteng is low but varies markedly by municipality and by ward, as well as across income groups. Not only are low income households more likely to be multidimensionally poor, they also suffer from higher intensities of poverty. Multidimensional poverty is highest in areas of low economic activity located on the edges of the province. However, pockets of multidimensional poverty do prevail even in better performing municipalities. Government, at all spheres, needs to devise policies that channel investments into lagging areas and avoid approaches that are indifferent to the heterogeneities that exist across localised geographical extents.     

R routines for performing estimation and statistical process control under copula-based time series models

Modeling serial dependence in time series is an important step in statistical process control. We provide a set of automatic routines useful for simulating and analyzing time series under a copula-based serial dependence. First, we introduce routines that generate time series data under a given copula. Second, we provide fully automated routines for obtaining maximum likelihood estimates for given time series data and then drawing a Shewhart-type control chart. Finally, real data are analyzed for illustration. We make the routines available as “Copula.Markov” package in R.     

Comparative Political Economy of Long‐Term Care for Elderly People: Political Logic of Universalistic Social Care Policy Development

Despite there being common socio‐demographic pressures across advanced industrialized countries, the public elder care programmes therein tend to vary. While the current literature on social care devotes itself to describing the care arrangements of each country and pigeonholing welfare/gender regime types, it does not sufficiently address this empirical puzzle. This study looks to specify the causal relationship between political institutions and public long‐term care programmes. It argues that countries with personal‐vote‐oriented electoral systems and/or fragmented party systems have difficulties in developing universalistic public elder care programmes, whereas countries with party‐vote‐oriented electoral systems and cohesive party systems are likely to develop generous elder care programmes. For whilst the former types of political institutions prioritize patronage‐based, particularistic benefits, the latter types encourage political actors to appeal to broader constituencies through universalistic welfare programmes. This study tests this claim by examining pooled time‐series and cross‐section data of advanced democracies, from 1980 until 2001. The empirical results suggest that politicians' reliance on personal votes and the fragmentation of ruling coalitions impede the expansion of public spending for elder care.     

Relation between exploitation and production in experimental populations ofPoecilia reticulata

Summary In order to make researches on the effect of exploitation upon fish populations, six populations of guppy were maintained during a period of 331 weeks under conditions of space, light, temperature, pH, and food controlled as much as possible. The six populations were divided into three groups two by two: a control group without exploitation, a 10% rate of exploitation group and a 20 and 33% rate of exploitation group. All the populations repeated an increase and a decrease in number and in biomass about once a year. The exploitation affected the age composition in the populations: in the non-exploited population adults occupied the largest part, and the more intensive the exploitation the larger the part fry occupied. The exploitation decreased the biomass of exploited populations, but productivity increased with increasing of of rate of exploitation. The relationship between adult and fry could be represented byRicker's reproduction curve. The form of the curve was changed by an intensity of exploitation. It was thought that exploitation acts as a preventer of aging of populations by removing old fish and results increasing number of fry and productivity.     

HEALTH CARE INFLATION AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR MONETARY POLICY

Motivated by recent findings on the cyclical movement of both health and health spending, we construct a general equilibrium model that distinguishes health care demand from the demand for other goods. Using this model, we are able to generate inflation dynamics and cyclicality of health that match the US data. When the model is subjected to an expansionary monetary policy shock, it yields different output and inflation responses compared with a two‐sector model with homogeneous demand. We show that the trade‐off between leisure and health spending plays an important role in model dynamics. The model further predicts different degrees of inflation stabilization across sectors when a shift in the monetary policy occurs. (JEL E52, E31, E32, I10)