对中国人口转变的再思考

论文作者通过对数十年来中国人口婚育行为模式、家庭结构与类型、死因构成模式转变的简要描述,指出仅在传统和最基本的人口动态、即人口出生、死亡和增长的角度来理解和认识人口转变、包括中国的人口转变,已远远不够,难以适应时代和人口发展的要求。提出人口转变是一个多维的动态历史过程,是一系列特定人口转变的集合。其中人口出生率、死亡率和自然增长率的变动仅仅是人口转变的表象和外壳,其内核则是通过制度、文化和技术等承载的人口行为及其动力机制,由此引致的变化才代表了人口的内在转变,强调关注人口的内在转变是理解中国特色人口转变道路的重要视角和基础。在对人口转变内涵探索的前提下,借助于对国内人口学界近些年有代表性的人口转变理论研究成果的介绍和分析,作者初步探讨了人口转变理论研究的拓展和创新问题。     

论人口老龄化程度城乡差异的转变

在中国人口老龄化过程中,农村老年人口比例日益高于城市,这是否是中国人口老龄化过程中的特有现象?本文对中国和其他国家人口老龄化过程中城乡人口老龄化的差异进行了比较研究。结果表明,在人口老龄化过程中,许多国家普遍地表现出农村人口老龄化程度高于城市的特点,即城乡倒置明显。进一步研究表明,人口老龄化城乡倒置只是人口老龄化过程中的一个阶段,它不会长期持续。当社会经济发展达到一定水平,大规模的城乡人口迁移基本完成,城市化水平大幅提高,人口因素发生改变时,人口老龄化程度农村高于城市的城乡倒置状况将发生转变,即城市老年人口比例最终将超过农村。     

Institutionalizing government public relations in Romania after 1989

Public relations are a new profession in Romania, an Eastern European former communist country which changed to a democratic regime in December 1989. It is generally considered to have emerged after 1990, although publicity and political propaganda preceded it (Rogojinaru in Sriramesh and Ver?i?, 2009, p. 553). Although the Romanian practice of public relations evolved and developed quickly aligning with the international practice, several campaigns and programs receiving awards during the last editions of IPRA Golden World Awards, SABRE Awards, Cannes Lions Awards or European Excellence Awards, there is still very little focus on research and theory. Thus, there is no major study on the history of public relations in Romania prior to 1989 to either confirm or challenge the conclusion of Grunig, Grunig and Ver?i? (2004) that there was no public relations in Eastern Europe before 1989 because the concept was not acceptable for socialism (p. 137). Even after 1989 while there is a growing body of literature on public relations in general published in Romanian, few studies addressed Romanian public relations which are more frequently described in practice than researched from the viewpoint of public relations theory. This exploratory research aims at identifying the characteristics of government public relations in Romania in 2011, the main stages in institutionalizing government public relations after 1989 and correlates them with the general evolution of public relations in Romania between 1989 and 2011.     

转型期货币供给内生决定机制：基于货币当局资产负债表的解析

 本文通过货币当局资产负债表这一新的视角分析转型期中国货币供给内生决定机制。货币当局所采取的不同资产负债管理方式,不但直接影响基础货币形成过程,而且改变公众的现金持有比率与商业银行的准备金率间接影响货币乘数。本文通过求解持有现金偏好和准备金需求的效用损失最小化函数,提出了货币当局资产负债结构影响货币乘数的微观机理。基于协整分析和误差修正模型的实证研究表明,相对于利率因素的较弱影响,以对外净资产持续上升和央行票据陡然增加为主要特征的货币当局资产负债结构调整,对货币乘数和货币供给形成过程影响显著。为缓解货币当局所承载的过度压力,货币政策调控应逐渐从以资产负债为主的数量型调整方式向以基准利率为主的价格型调整方式转变。     

Civilian Tradition and the Chinese Company Law

What is the role of company’s legislation in the Chinese transition? In the first paragraphs of the paper it will show the emergence, in a historical perspective, of some enterprise-related legal structures. These structures will be described by emphasizing model-function relations, and connecting them to the features of ‘different societies’ in which they developed. We will consider then, the role of status. The law, a legal structure as well, is used by China to manage its gradual and controlled, yet rapid, transition. By these means, it has been possible, for instance, to move status based distinctions among enterprises inside, at least formally, ‘equality’ based legal structures.     

School-to-work transitions in times of crisis: the case of Spanish youth without qualifications

This article focuses on the school-to-work transitions of Spanish youth. Herein, we study the pathways followed during a 10-year period by young people who dropped out of school without achieving any qualifications and who did not achieve any at a later date. This is a population aged 26–28 years old with an educational level of ISCED 0–1. The study adopts a plurimethodological approach that includes an initial qualitative phase whose main instrument was the biographical interview and a second phase with a quantitative focus in which data were collected using a questionnaire. The results show the effect of dropping out of education without qualifications on the pathways of the youths as well as their greater vulnerability in the current period of economic crisis, which results in a high percentage of the population that has no employment, education or training. This effect is even greater among women. This study highlights the difficulties associated to returning to education, the reproduction of educational exclusion in the population that did not obtain the diploma corresponding to compulsory secondary education, and a lack of public policies to support this specific population.     

完善我国上市公司可转换债券税收制度的思考

随着危机之后经济的逐渐回暖可转换债券以其混合融资方式的优势再次受到国内公司直接融资的青睐。然而，税收制度的非确定性造成这种融资方式在成本控制方面的不稳定。这不仅加剧了发行可转换债券公司资本运作的困境，同时也带给征税机关在税收确定方面的困难。无论从完善税收制度方面还是从缓解企业资金短缺矛盾方面看，可转换债券税收制度的完善问题都亟需解决。     

ON TRANSITION PROBABILITIES OF SKIP-FREE MARKOV CHAINS

Consider an ergodic Markov chain X(t) in continuous time with an infinitesimal matrix Q = (q_ij) defined on a finite state space {0, 1,…, N}. In this note, we prove that if X(t) is skip-free positive (negative, respectively), i.e., q_ij, = 0 for j > i+ 1 (i > j+ 1), then the transition probability p_ij(t) = Pr[X(t)=j | X(0) =i] can be represented as a linear combination of p_0N(t) (p^(m)_(N0)(t)), 0 ≤ m ≤N, where f^(m)(t) denotes the mth derivative of a function f(t) with f⁽⁰⁾(t) =f(t). If X(t) is a birth-death process, then p_ij(t) is represented as a linear combination of p_0N^(m)(t), 0 ≤m≤N - |i-j|.     

On Transition and First Hitting Time Densities and Moments of the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck Process

This paper derives transition and first hitting time densities and moments for the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck Process (OUP) between exponential thresholds. The densities are obtained by simplifying the process via Doob’s representation into Brownian motion between affine thresholds. The densities in this paper also offer easy-to-use and fast small-time approximations for the densities of OUP between constant thresholds given that exponential thresholds are virtually constant for a small time. This is of interest for estimation with high-frequency data given that extant approaches for constant thresholds impose a large demand on computing power. The moments of the transition distribution up to order n are derived within a closed-form recursive formula that offers valuable information for management. Expressions for the moments of the first hitting time distribution are also obtained in closed form by simplifying integrals via series expansions.     

Is China Affected by the Resource Curse? A Critical Review of the Chinese Literature

This meta-analysis aims to identify the relationship between natural resources abundance and economic growth in China to provide policy guidance for sustainable development. Empirical evidence was collected from 44 studies published in Chinese between 2005 and 2017 at provincial and city level. Results show that the existence of the resource curse is ambiguous. Although most of the studies conclude that the resource curse exists, particularly in the fast-growing central and western regions of China, a number of studies find the opposite. This latter finding is mainly attributed to other growth determinants and transition mechanisms, such as spillover effects driving the demand for natural resources and resulting in higher prices. Significant methodological advances have been made over the past decade, both in terms of the econometric modelling of causal relationships between economic growth and natural resources and the level of empirical control through the inclusion of new explanatory factors. However, in order to enhance the comparability of results, more attention should be paid to the types of resources and their measurement, alternative determinants of economic growth, such as new economic policies, as well as the application of appropriate econometric modeling approaches. The paper ends with policy recommendations.