Dual Role Transition among First Time Pregnant Social Work Student Trainees

Since most social work student trainees are women of child bearing age, every year at least some of them become pregnant in the course of their fieldwork. This study investigates the dual transitions of becoming a mother while becoming a professional among 10 married social work student trainees whose fieldwork training coincided with their first pregnancy. The findings obtained from a cross-case thematic analysis of the contents of semi-structured interviews show that these trainees come to their fieldwork preoccupied with their pregnancy, torn between that and their clients, and feeling guilty and, in some cases, professionally inadequate as a result. They also show that some of them cope with their pregnancies by pushing themselves to over-function in matters that do not involve direct client interaction. The paper ends with practical recommendations to help pregnant trainees free up room for their clients' needs by providing them with opportunities to talk about their own.     

Early traces of the Second Demographic Transition in Bulgaria: A joint analysis of marital and non-marital union formation, 1960–2004

We explore trends in first-union formation in Bulgaria from 1960, using data from the national Gender and Generations Survey of 2004. We analyse jointly the transition into cohabitation and directly into marriage. The standardized marriage rate falls dramatically from the early 1980s; the corresponding rate of entry into cohabitation has already increased from the early 1960s but (surprisingly) falls moderately toward the end of our period. Cohabitation also tends to last progressively longer in more recent periods. The analysis shows that a pregnancy leads to a dramatic increase in the rate of both kinds of union formation: the increase is by a factor of almost 20 for marriage formation and about 10 for entry into cohabitation, ceteris paribus. Our findings suggest that, in Bulgaria at least, some manifestations of the Second Demographic Transition can be detected as early as the 1980s.     

从一次人口转变到二次人口转变——现代人口转变及其启示

在扼要解析狭义人口转变及其经典模型的基础上,认为第二次人口转变的提出,是结合人口"中间变量"从广义上阐释了人口变化的内在动因与作用机理,进而在宏观、中观和微观三个层面引入了对现代人口转变与社会变迁关系的思考。主张人口转变是一个多维的动态历史过程,蕴涵着婚姻、生育、家庭、健康、人口调控等系列转变。提出第二次人口转变在中国的城市地区已露端倪。最后特别指出人口转变不仅仅是人口变化,更重要的是将其嵌套的社会变迁,两者关系的空前紧密折射着社会变化与社会需求。过去30年中国通过计划生育让人口"适应"了经济腾飞,而今后三、五十年以至更长时间,应使人口的"主体"地位逐步复归,让经济社会发展适应新的人口变化与社会需求,提高人口生存与生命质量,这才是发展的目的本身。     

人口转变:一个可以无限拓展的概念?

人口转变的概念从提出到现在已有80多年的历史。数十年来,许多学者对人口转变的研究和贡献,使之成为人口学最有影响的理论之一。它概括了人类在从传统社会向现代社会转变的过程中人口再生产的演变特点以及这种演变的原因和社会经济后果。到了上个世纪80年代后期,欧洲学者范德卡及其同事提出了"第二次人口转变"的概念,以此概括二战以后发生在西欧的一系列人口和婚姻家庭的变化以及生育率现象。20世纪90年代后,又有学者用"第三次人口转变"表述欧美国家持续的低生育率和高迁入率导致的人种结构的变化。文章认为,"第二次人口转变"和"第三次人口转变"的提出者们的研究是非常有启发性和有价值的,但并不赞成他们将自己的研究内容冠以"人口转变"。     

Single Attribute Control Charts for a Markovian-Dependent Process

In a production process, sequence of observations related to the quality of a process need not be independent. In such situations, control charts based on the assumption of independence of the observations are not appropriate. When the characteristic under study is qualitative, the Markovian model serves as a simple model to account for the dependency of the observations. In this article, we develop two attribute control charts for a Markovian dependent process: the first is based on controlling the error probabilities; the second is based on minimizing the average time to get a correct signal.

The charts are developed under uniform sampling. Under uniform sampling, the two consecutive samples are far enough apart, so that for all practical purposes, two consecutive samples can be considered as if they are being independent. Optimal values of the design parameters of both the control charts are obtained. A procedure to estimate the values of the in-control parameters is also described. The chart's performance is evaluated using the probability of detecting shift. When we implement the proposed charts for the data simulated under given manufacturing environments, the charts exhibit the desired properties of error probabilities and average time to signal.     

我国社会转型的内涵把握及特征解析

文章从“社会转型”的定义入手,分析了社会转型的内涵和本质,阐述了社会转型中所体现的五个特征,即利益结构的重组、社会结构的改变、社会冲突的加剧、主体意识的凸现、价值观念的冲突。     

转型期的中国经济波动特征

本文使用1978-2013年的中国宏观经济数据,从总需求、产业、生产力、就业与工资、价格水平、货币与利息6个方面考察了改革开放以来我国经济波动的规律。不同于已有的研究结果,我们发现其具有明显的“转型经济”特征,主要体现在以下两个方面：一、经济周期大致可分为两个阶段：1978-1990年和1991-2013年。前一阶段,主要是供给面因素造成经济波动,且波动率较大。后一阶段,经济波动表现为需求驱动型,波动幅度明显减弱。二、第一产业就业人数与第二、三产业就业人数之和的比值具有明显的反周期特征。这反映了在我国的工业化进程中,农村剩余劳动力在空间上频繁迁移的特点,即宏观经济景气时,农村剩余劳动力迁移到城市;反之,则迁移回农村。     

粮食价格波动对物价水平的非对称影响——基于STR模型的实证分析

依据中国1998年1月-2011年6月的季度数据,运用平滑转换回归模型研究粮食价格波动对物价水平的影响,研究表明:粮食价格对物价水平存在单向Granger因果关系,其影响呈现非线性和不对称特征;当粮食价格处于高机制状态时,粮价波动对物价水平影响程度较大,CPI自我驱动能力较小;当粮食价格处于低机制状态时,粮价波动对物价水平影响程度微弱,CPI自我驱动能力较强.     

李约瑟之谜与经济转型的模型分析

以经济活动的数学模型为基础,通过演绎,可以得到资源、资本和社会力三种经济方式。从对资源的劳动积累角度考察经济活动的资源转型,只有社会力经济方式才能实施转型,资源和资本两种经济方式与经济转型无关,这一结论暗示"李约瑟之谜"中论及的科技和经济等主要条件不构成经济转型的因素。在"李约瑟瓶颈"的情境中实施以生活质量正向改善为目标的经济转型,模型演绎的结论是:必须首先对社会力进行正向调整,而后进行负向调整。史实佐证了这一结论。     

从政府主导到大学自律：我国研究生教育质量保障的制度转型

质量保障伴随着我国研究生教育发展的全程。从社会实践的角度看,过去30年中我国实施政府主导的、以外部保障为主的研究生教育质量保障框架。这一体系体现了研究生教育质量的国家和社会公共利益取向,保证了研究生教育的基本质量,但是,也在一定程度阻碍了研究生培养主体的质量自觉意识和质量自律机制的培育。从历史和逻辑相统一的角度看,大学形成维护质量的文化信念,建立一套特色化的、严格的内部质量保障机制,是我国研究生质量保障制度革新的原点和基石。