世界石油市场“危机”及走向预测

上个世纪的世界石油市场曾一度染“病”在身。导致石油市场“病变”的关键因素是石油生产者丧失了对油价的控制能力。我们可以通过分析历史上的各个“危机”时期石油市场的“病因”,分析当今世界石油市场所处的状态,从短期和长期两方面预测其未来走向。     

对国际石油市场的理论分析和展望

2003年以来,随着石油价格的不断振荡攀升,经济理论界围绕当前国际石油市场在结构、发展趋势以及内在运行机制等方面的变化展开了分析和研究,在诸多问题上形成了争论。在此背景下,本文基于对国际石油市场基本组成要素的剖析,从需求和供应、OPEC的作用及其市场控制能力、市场竞争程度等三方面来探讨国际石油市场所发生的变化,指出当前石油价格暴涨的内在成因,并在此基础上展望国际油价今后的发展趋势。     

对中国消费者非转基因菜油支付意愿的研究

有关中国消费者关于转基因食品接受度的资料非常有限.本文则首次尝试对中国消费者关于非转基因(non-GM)食用油的支付意愿(WTP)问题进行评估.通过对北京的671个消费者进行调查采访,运用假设评价方法(contingent valuation),可推导出消费者对非转基因菜油的支付意愿.为避免调查者无响应引起的偏差,运用了双变量概率选择模式对调查数据进行分析.研究结果表明,消费者对非转基因菜油的支付意愿受到了许多因素的影响,比如价格、风险意识、受教育程度和知识水平等等.计算所得的WTP显示,平均而言,被调查者愿意支付33%的额外费用来消费非转基因菜油.这一结果表明,中国消费者对转基因油持有相当怀疑的态度.     

战后日本中东石油战略的调整及其启示

二战后日本中东石油战略的调整经历了获取石油开采权，建立海外石油基地；修改亲以政策，实行亲阿外交；从单纯的能源外交转向平衡外交；不愿过于依赖海湾阿拉伯国家，与伊朗联合开发油田的四个阶段。对中国的启示是重视战略石油储备的作用、增加勘探开发投入、使石油进口来源多元化。     

石油禁运--国际社会的重要制裁手段

石油最初被广泛使用的领域不是经济领域而是国防领域,因而石油禁运最初是第三国对交战国所采取的极端措施。由于经济全球化的条件不断积累,国际经济一体化程度日益加深,在国际斗争中,经济对抗手段具有不可替代的作用,甚至可以达成运用军事手段所难以达成的战略性目的。发达国家为攫取更多经济利益,就越来越多地运用经济强权,特别是石油禁运,对发展中国家进行经济压制、经济制裁、经济报复甚至经济打击。     

Quality certification, institutions and innovation in local agro-food systems: Protected designations of origin of olive oil in Spain

This article examines the interrelations between establishment of territorial quality certification systems (Protected Designations of Origin or PDOs), diffusion of innovations through local agro-food chains, and the role of the institutions overseeing geographical designations. Empirical analysis is applied to olive oil PDOs in Spain and entails a detailed case study of the “Sierra Mágina” PDO in Andalusia. Making use of the neoinstitutional concept of ‘organised proximity’—and focussing specifically on the problematic of organizational quality—the article assesses characteristics that support the competitive positions of local certified-product production systems. In particular, the authors find that collective organisation and coordination between PDO agents who are locally responsible for quality assurance and protection can enhance local competitiveness. Three hypotheses are confirmed. First, PDO labels can, through the action of PDO regulators, become quality assurance systems for distributors. Second, PDO Regulatory Boards can enhance and coordinate local inter-professional activities, particularly with respect to the diffusion of quality-enhancing innovations and knowledge. Third, the study indicates that local certified-product systems are starting to incorporate quality attributes linked to the environment and sustainable development, although much remains to be accomplished in this regard.     

中国油气能源效率变动趋势分析*

效率问题是高质量发展的关键问题。提高油气能源效率，对于保障油气能源安全、实现油气产业高质量发展、促进社会经济持续稳定安全运行具有重要意义。为此，运用非期望产出的窗口DEA模型对中国2001—2016年30个省、直辖市、自治区的面板数据进行测算，以此分析中国及各区域全要素油气能源效率。研究得出：（1）中国油气能源效率持续提高；（2）油气能源效率水平及其差距存在显著地域性差异；（3）在内外部因素共同作用下，油气能源效率差距逐步缩小。结合我国发展实际，提出如下建议：（1）积极响应绿色发展要求，推进现代能源体系建设；（2）明确能源商品属性，发挥市场配置资源的作用；（3）以产业结构调整、科学技术创新推动能源效率提升；（4）根据地区发展实际，合理规划能源发展布局；（5）把握高质量发展的内涵要义，推动能源效益变革。     

Judgment and Analysis in Oil Spill Risk Assessment

The risk of oil spills is a major environmental issue in the siting of proposed coastal refineries, oil terminals, deepwater ports, and in the leasing of offshore lands for oil exploration and development. As with any kind of risk, oil spill risk assessment is inherently judgmental and no analytic method can eliminate the need for judgment. This paper compares representative examples of oil spill risk assessments with regard to decisions about data, variables, functional relations, and uncertainty. The comparison emphasizes the judgmental basis of analytic methods.     

基于小波分析的石油价格长期趋势预测方法及其实证研究

本文将小波方法引入到油价长期趋势的预测中,利用小波多尺度分析的功能,提出了一种可以较为准确地根据油价时序列预测其未来长期走势的方法。这种方法的优点在于可以准确地提取油价的长期趋势,从总体上把握油价的非线性波动特征,从而能够很好地利用油价时间序列的历史数据,开展对未来一段时期内的多步预测。实证研究中,对Brent油价开展了时间跨度为1年的趋势预测,并将预测结果与ARIMA、GARCH、Holtwinters等方法得到的结果进行了比较,表明了基于小波分析的长期趋势预测法的预测能力是其他方法所不能比拟的,反映了本文所建立的石油价格长期趋势预测方法的有效性。     

Land‐Price Dynamics and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

We argue that positive co‐movements between land prices and business investment are a driving force behind the broad impact of land‐price dynamics on the macroeconomy. We develop an economic mechanism that captures the co‐movements by incorporating two key features into a DSGE model: We introduce land as a collateral asset in firms' credit constraints, and we identify a shock that drives most of the observed fluctuations in land prices. Our estimates imply that these two features combine to generate an empirically important mechanism that amplifies and propagates macroeconomic fluctuations through the joint dynamics of land prices and business investment.