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61.
We study, from the standpoint of coherence, comparative probabilities on an arbitrary familyE of conditional events. Given a binary relation ·, coherence conditions on · are related to de Finetti's coherent betting system: we consider their connections to the usual properties of comparative probability and to the possibility of numerical representations of ·. In this context, the numerical reference frame is that of de Finetti's coherent subjective conditional probability, which is not introduced (as in Kolmogoroff's approach) through a ratio between probability measures.Another relevant feature of our approach is that the family & need not have any particular algebraic structure, so that the ordering can be initially given for a few conditional events of interest and then possibly extended by a step-by-step procedure, preserving coherence. 相似文献
62.
The Abu Sayyaf is an organization which has left a trail of mayhem and murder in the southern Philippines for more than a decade. It has gained international notoriety through several high profile mass kidnappings. This article looks at how the Abu Sayyaf has managed to survive and at times prosper despite the state's efforts to eradicate it. By using organizational analysis the paper demonstrates how the Abu Sayyaf has developed structures and processes which make it such a deadly force. The organization has succeeded in gaining considerable fit with the environment in which it operates. 相似文献
63.
On the Effect of Probability Distributions of Input Variables in Public Health Risk Assessment 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
A central part of probabilistic public health risk assessment is the selection of probability distributions for the uncertain input variables. In this paper, we apply the first-order reliability method (FORM)(1–3) as a probabilistic tool to assess the effect of probability distributions of the input random variables on the probability that risk exceeds a threshold level (termed the probability of failure) and on the relevant probabilistic sensitivities. The analysis was applied to a case study given by Thompson et al. (4) on cancer risk caused by the ingestion of benzene contaminated soil. Normal, lognormal, and uniform distributions were used in the analysis. The results show that the selection of a probability distribution function for the uncertain variables in this case study had a moderate impact on the probability that values would fall above a given threshold risk when the threshold risk is at the 50th percentile of the original distribution given by Thompson et al. (4) The impact was much greater when the threshold risk level was at the 95th percentile. The impact on uncertainty sensitivity, however, showed a reversed trend, where the impact was more appreciable for the 50th percentile of the original distribution of risk given by Thompson et al. 4 than for the 95th percentile. Nevertheless, the choice of distribution shape did not alter the order of probabilistic sensitivity of the basic uncertain variables. 相似文献
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Examining Localized Patterns of Air Quality Perception in Texas: A Spatial and Statistical Analysis 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Environmental and human health issues associated with outdoor air pollution, such as ozone, sulfur dioxide, and other pollutants in metropolitan regions, are an area of growing concern for both policy officials and the general public. Increasing attention from the news media, new health data, and public debate over the effectiveness of clean air regulations have raised the importance of air quality in the public consciousness. While public perceptions of air quality have been studied thoroughly dating back to the 1960s, little empirical research has been conducted to explain the spatial aspects of these perceptions, particularly at the local level. Although recent studies suggest characteristics of local setting are important in shaping perceptions of air quality, the roles of proximity, neighborhood characteristics, and location have not been clarified. This study seeks to improve understanding of the major factors shaping public perceptions of air quality by examining the spatial pattern of local risk perception, the role of socioeconomic characteristics in forming these perceptions, and the relationship between perceived and scientifically measured air pollution. First, we map the spatial pattern of local air quality perceptions using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) across the Dallas and Houston metropolitan areas. Next, we explain these perceptions through local contextual factors using both bivariate correlations and multivariate regression analysis. Results indicate that perceptions of air quality in the study areas are not significantly correlated with air quality based on readings of air monitoring stations. Instead, perceptions appear to be influenced by setting (urban vs. rural), state identification, access to information, and socioeconomic characteristics such as age, race, and political identification. We discuss the implications of the findings and provide direction on how further research can provide a deeper understanding of the local contextual factors influencing public perceptions. 相似文献
68.
从现在到2020年是打赢脱贫攻坚战的关键时期,从农民自身角度研究搬迁意愿,对加快实施易地扶贫移民搬迁具有重要意义。研究依据西方微观人口迁移理论:地方效用理论、计划行为理论和效价[CD*2]期望理论,整合构建了中国国情下由政府引导的易地扶贫搬迁意愿的理论分析框架。以陕南移民搬迁为例,在验证性因子分析的基础上,运用有序Logit模型和最优尺度模型对理论假设进行检验。结果显示:①心理因素、政策和预期因素、环境因素对搬迁意愿具有显著影响 ②控制变量中家庭人口数、非农劳动力比例、家庭成员求学婚姻等控制变量与搬迁意愿显著相关;③没有搬迁的主要的顾虑是搬迁后找不到工作、城镇生活成本高、搬迁成本高、搬迁后的适应等问题。研究建议政府部门在搬迁补助、就业安置、搬迁后适应等方面加大支持力度,增强搬迁的信心。 相似文献
69.
耿言虎 《河海大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2018,20(3):57-63
目前学界对小地域空间内跨社区环境治理研究较少。生态补偿是治理跨界环境问题的重要手段,市场主导的跨社区生态补偿机制与政府主导的跨行政区生态补偿机制在补偿主体、补偿模式上有明显差别。基于云南M县的田野调查,探讨上下游村庄围绕水问题的跨社区生态补偿机制的构建。实践探索中的跨社区生态补偿存在补偿资金不足、补偿意愿较低、协商机制不健全和支付主体分散的困境。结合已有成功实践,从补偿定价机制、补偿协商机制、补偿支付方式、村庄治理能力建设等4个方面提出跨社区生态补偿机制的建构对策。跨社区生态补偿机制可以为我国大地域空间市场化、多元化生态补偿机制的构建积累有益经验。 相似文献
70.
党的十八、十九大均指出,生态文明建设功在当代、利在千秋。十九大进一步明确提出要构建“政府主导、社会协同、公众参与、法治保障”的生态文明建设新局面。《环境保护公众参与办法》的出台为公众参与环境保护提供了强有力的制度保障,但公众的参与程度与许多因素有关。在积极发动和鼓励公众参与生态文明建设的过程中,政府可发挥新媒体协商平台的作用,提高新媒体的回应能力,为公众参与生态文明建设提供保障;公众应借助新媒体互动平台的功能,进一步提升生态意识,践行生态行为,自觉维护生态环境;环保组织要发挥新媒体的聚焦作用,推动环保组织的成长壮大。 相似文献