藏彝走廊的自然灾害与灾难应对本土 实践的人类学考察

藏彝走廊是一个生态多样、文化多元,同时也是自然灾害频发的民族地区。从灾难的社会属性出发,文章通过考察该地区的自然灾害和灾难应对的本土实践,分析了一些特定的自然灾害作为当地环境系统中的一种常态性特征是如何历史性和结构性地融人人们生活世界的经验图景之中的,并探讨了当地各民族如何在特定的生态环境系统和社会文化体系中如何应对具体的自然灾害风险场景。从而指出,人类学的灾难研究并非只是关注灾害现象和灾难应对本身,更是要理解人们的生活世界在可持续性方面所面临的种种困境、挑战和机遇。     

基于巨灾的灾害民族志研究及其方法

"民族志(亦称民俗学)"是人类学研究的重要手段。"灾害民族志"是将"民族志"用于减灾防灾研究的大胆尝试。它通过对选定的灾害经历者进行田野采访,收集大量个人采访资料并进行整理。通过灾害经历者自己的表述来了解和重现灾害发生和发展的过程以及人们面对灾害的反应,从中总结出规律和重要经验教训,对灾害应对和应急管理人才培训很有意义。我国在这方面研究较为薄弱,应以汶川地震救灾减灾为契机,尽早开展巨灾灾害民族志研究。     

Communicating risk to parents and those living in areas with a disaster history

This study explored how publics respond to risk communication in high probability but time-indeterminate natural disaster situations when parts of the area have been involved in a similar disaster before. An impending rockslide is expected to produce a tsunami in the fjord around Åknes in Norway. Waves may run up above sea level as high as 82 m or 269 ft. All residents (18 and older) of the four most threatened communities received a questionnaire to determine what they perceived to be useful risk information. Three hundred and eighty-two (43.6% of 875) responded. Results indicated that parents of children living within the tsunami risk zones perceived the risk information to be the most useful. Those who lived in communities that experienced a similar disaster in 1934 reported public meetings less useful than written or mediated information. Publics who lived in communities with such disaster history and those who were not parents posed special challenges in risk communication because they perceived information from the government agencies as lacking in usefulness. Therefore, committing the resources necessary to foster dialogues with a diversity of publics exposed to risk would be well served to fully understand the nature of risk communication responses, and to be able to save human lives.     

网络集群的自组织特征——以“南京梧桐树事件”的微博维权为个案

近年来,伴随着急剧的社会结构转型,我国新的社会身份和社会认同群体也随之产生,在网络中的政治表达和利益维护活动增多,在这些网络讨论的集群内部,参与者会自发形成一定的秩序,推动事件的进行。本研究利用自组织理论作为分析框架,选取"南京梧桐树事件"的微博维权集群为研究对象,重点考察网络集群参与者之间从无序到有序的互动过程、整个系统的演变规律及其与外界的互动机制,由此总结出网络集群中的自组织特征,从而相对准确地把握虚拟社区系统的发展、演化阶段,为更好地理解互联网的社会功能起到借鉴作用,也为政府有关部门做好群体事件的预防工作提供理论和策略上的支持。     

Staying connected under fire: Effects of individual roles and organizational specialization on the robustness of emergency-phase communication networks

Communication network connectivity is central to organizational performance, but maintaining connectivity can be difficult during periods of disruption. During the World Trade Center (WTC) disaster of September 11th, 2001, both emergency response-specialized organizations and organizations without such specialization forcibly adapted to a radically altered environment. Their dynamic communication networks necessarily entailed trade-offs between competing demands for efficiency and robustness to disruption. Of particular importance is whether organizations concentrated activity within a small number of “hub” nodes, and whether those with existing coordinative roles were critical to maintaining connectivity. We examine these questions by analyzing seventeen organizational communication networks in the WTC disaster. We find that organizations maintain connectivity through relatively small numbers of coordinators, but the realization of institutionalized coordinative roles depends upon organizational context. Further, we find distinct patterns of robustness, with the removal of key players leading to mass isolation in specialist networks versus a gradual pattern of failure in non-specialist networks. These results suggest that organizations responding to disruptions within their usual domain of operations will be more likely to retain institutionalized roles when building emergent networks, although this increases the network's fragility in the event of the loss of one of those coordinators. Organizations responding to novel threats may reconfigure more radically, limiting vulnerability to the loss of institutionalized—but not emergent—coordinators.     

同年关系与北宋"庆历同年党"事件

"庆历同年党"事件是宋仁宗庆历初的宰相吕夷简为排击政敌宋庠等人而精心策划的一起"莫须有"的朋党事件.吕夷简利用了宋庠等人密切的同年关系及仁宗对朋党行为的忌讳心理,将宋庠与几位同年的私交关系指为朋比结党,从而以同年结党的名义将他们逐出朝廷.     

系统视角下的灾害社会工作

重大灾害给受灾者的生理、心理和社会各层面带来深重的影响,以助人为天职的社会工作者如何发挥专业作用以帮助受灾案主走出灾害困境?本文以此为构思的出发点,通过对灾害救助特点以及社会工作在其中角色定位的思考,引发出从系统视角开展灾害社会工作的设想,尝试建构系统视角下灾害社会工作的实践框架。     

1923年鲁尔事件与欧洲格局巨变

鲁尔事件是一战后初期国际关系调整的转折点,帝国主义列强为争夺欧洲霸权而展开的激烈斗争,促使凡尔赛体系迅速解体,为欧洲新的政治格局的形成铺平了道路。     

韦昭度之死与吴融的诗歌创作

从吴融和韦昭度关系的角度可见吴融的政治命运和其诗歌创作。韦昭度之死是唐末藩镇势力侵陵帝室的结果;韦昭度之死作为吴融的重要的人生记忆影响了他的一生和其诗歌创作;韦昭度之死给吴融诗歌增加了一种凝重的品格。     

个人所得税减免有助于中国城镇家庭提高消费吗?

预期效应的准确识别往往是政策评估的重点和难点。本文基于中国城镇住户调查2010-2012年月度数据研究发现:第一,2011年6月底个人所得税法修正案获得通过时,工薪家庭消费便已显著增加,并在2011年9月正式实施时达到最大,随后逐步下降,两个月后达到较高稳态(约为0. 20),但在统计意义上并不显著。与既往研究不同,这说明税收减免只在短期提高家庭消费,忽略家庭预期将会导致减税效应低估。第二,家庭增加的支出以服务消费和食物消费为主,耐用消费和债务支出并未显著调整,这可能与减免力度有关。第三,与常规认知不同,政策边际消费倾向更多地随着减税率(而非收入水平或者流动率)增加单调递减。本文通过改进Kueng(2018)所提理论模型,对此进行了解释。