农民生育成本分析：城乡比较的视角

从生育成本与收入比视角,对我国农村居民的生育成本进行分析。指出：人口迁移流动与城市化发展,使城乡生育成本出现趋同;与市民相比,农民生育成本相对较低,但收入更低,结果是农民的生育支出与收入的比值更高。因此,仅从生育绝对成本出发,得出农民因生育成本低而倾向于多生的结论值得商榷。     

生育意愿的代际差异分析 ———以江苏省为例

利用江苏省"生育意愿和生育行为研究"调查数据,文章从意愿生育子女数、意愿子女性别、意愿生育年龄等三个维度出发,考察了不同代际(60后、70后、80后)育龄妇女生育意愿和生育观念的差异.研究发现,80年代出生的育龄妇女少生、晚生、优生的意愿趋势明显,以孩子为中心的观念也在弱化,性别选择更趋向无偏好化.新型生育文化及观念在我国发达的农村地区已成现实,这些事实对生育政策的调整具有重要参考意义.     

昆山农村婚育观现状及其对策

江苏省昆山市农村群众婚育现状的调查结果说明 ,苏南农村育龄群众的婚育观基本上与国家的计划生育政策一致 ,但在子女个数、养老等问题上仍有一定距离 ,应采取强化宣传教育、发展经济、健全社会养老保障机制等措施加以改变     

An Empirical Test of a Neo-Malthusian Theory of Fertility Change

Some neo-Malthusians regard fertility as being kept in check by scarcities and constraints and, conversely, as being raised by economic prosperity. Since out-migration to developed countries and the receipt of food aid from developed countries relax the constraints imposed by a country’s carrying capacity, both will have a positive effect on fertility rates in developing countries. Moreover, better economic prospects will also raise fertility, all other things equal. This article provides an empirical test of these hypotheses derived from a neo-Malthusian theory of fertility change. The results fail to confirm the theory and often contradict it.

Population Density is a Key Factor in Declining Human Fertility

In studying the complex determinants of human fertility, social scientists have given little attention to population density, although reproduction has been shown to be density-dependent for a wide variety of other species. Using fixed effects models on the time series of 145 countries and controlling for key social and economic variables, we find a consistent and significant negative relationship between human fertility and population density. Moreover, we find that individual fertility preferences also decline with population density. These findings suggest that population density should be included as a variable in future studies of fertility determinants.

A constitutional theory of the family

The paper re-examines the idea that a family can be viewed as a community governed by a self-enforcing constitution, and extends existing results in two directions. First, it identifies the circumstances in which a constitution is renegotiation-proof. Second, it introduces parental altruism. The behavioural and policy implications are illustrated by showing the effects of public pensions and credit rationing. These implications are not much affected by whether altruism is assumed or not, but contrast sharply with those of more conventional models.

Dynamic microeconomic models of fertility choice: a survey

We review existing approaches to the specification and estimation of dynamic microeconomic models of fertility. Dynamic fertility models explain the evolution of fertility variates over the life-cycle as the solution to a dynamic programming model involving economic choices. Dynamic models may be classified into structural and reduced-form models. Structural models generally require solution of the underlying dynamic programming problem. Reduced-form models, while based on a structural specification, do not. Recent innovations in estimation methodologies make both types practical and realistic alternatives to static models of lifetime fertility. JEL classification: J13, C41, C61 Received August 26, 1994/Accepted October 23, 1996     

裕固族妇女生育观念与生育意愿的调查分析

本文采用自编问卷，对肃南县裕固族妇女的生育观念和生育意愿进行了调查与分析。结果发现：（1）裕固族妇女生育目的注重情感效用；（2）裕固族妇女生育年龄相比较于过去普遍推迟；（3）裕固族妇女生育孩子没有显著的性别偏好；（4）裕固族妇女意愿生育数量少。文章在分析裕固族妇女生育观念和生育意愿现状的基础上提出了相应的对策和建议。     

The earned income tax credit and fertility

Government programs designed to provide income safety nets often restrict eligibility to families with children, creating an unintended fertility incentive. This paper considers whether dramatically changing incentives in the earned income tax credit affect fertility rates in the USA. We use birth certificate data spanning the period 1990 to 1999 to test whether expansions in the credit influenced birthrate among targeted families. While economic theory would predict a positive fertility effect of the program for many eligible women, our results indicate that expanding the credit produced only extremely small reductions in higher order fertility among white women.

The role of intergenerational transfers,land, and education in fertility transition in rural Kenya: the case of Nyeri district

This qualitative study reveals how population pressures, land availability, inheritance norms, and educational opportunities intertwine to influence fertility decline in rural Kenya. Focus group discussions with men and women whose childbearing occurred both before and after the onset of rapid, unexpected fertility transition in Nyeri, Kenya allowed individuals who actually participated in, or witnessed, the fertility transition to “voice” their perceptions as to the mechanisms underlying the transition. Findings suggest that, since land inheritance is a cultural norm, land scarcity and diminishing farm size often influence fertility decision-making and behavior via preferences for fewer children. Further, education does not appear to be the driving cause of fertility behavior change, but rather is adopted as a substitute for land inheritance when land resources are scarce. These findings have implications for our understanding of fertility behavior as well as for improving predictions of fertility transition in other rural sub-Saharan African contexts.