Working and disability expectancies at older ages: The role of childhood circumstances and education

The ability to work at older ages depends on health and education. Both accumulate starting very early in life. We assess how childhood disadvantages combine with education to affect working and health trajectories. Applying multistate period life tables to data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) for the period 2008–2014, we estimate how the residual life expectancy at age 50 is distributed in number of years of work and disability, by number of childhood disadvantages, gender, and race/ethnicity. Our findings indicate that number of childhood disadvantages is negatively associated with work and positively with disability, irrespective of gender and race/ethnicity. Childhood disadvantages intersect with low education resulting in shorter lives, and redistributing life years from work to disability. Among the highly educated, health and work differences between groups of childhood disadvantage are small. Combining multistate models and inverse probability weighting, we show that the return of high education is greater among the most disadvantaged.     

Modelling financial satisfaction across life stages: A latent class approach

We explore the determinants of financial satisfaction using a modelling framework which allows the drivers of financial satisfaction to vary across life stages. Given that financial satisfaction is measured as an ordered variable, our modelling approach is based on a latent class ordered probit model with an ordered probit class assignment function. Our analysis of household survey data indicates that four life stages are supported by the data. Our results suggest that such flexibility is important in understanding the drivers of financial satisfaction over the life cycle since there is a substantial amount of parameter heterogeneity across the four classes.     

威布尔分布场合步加试验和步降试验的效率比较分析

 本文通过大量的Monte-Carlo模拟，在四个不同的准则下就威布尔分布比较了步进应力加速寿命试验和步降应力加速寿命试验的效率，认为步降应力加速寿命试验很值得推广，尤其是针对耗损型产品。     

Effect of a new selection procedure on adaptive estimation

Adaptive estimation of parameters of some failure time distributionsis considered. A new procedure named the F-procedure has beendeveloped for selecting an appropriate model out of two possible models by Pandey et.al. (1991). Applying this F-procedure adaptive estimatorsof parameters of exponential, Wei bull, inverse Gaussian (IG) and Wald failure time distributions have been proposed in this paper. Comparison of these estimators has been undertaken with MLE's of the respective parameters and with some previous adaptiveestimators by simulation of samples using the Monte Carlo method.Adaptive estimation of parameters of some failure time distributions is considered. A new procedure named the F-procedure has been developedfor selecting an appropriate model out of two possible models by Pandey et.al. (1991). Applying this F-procedure adaptive estimators of parameters of exponential, Wei bull, inverse Gaussian (IG) and Wald failure time distributions have been proposed in this paper. Comparison of these estimators has been undertaken with MLE's of the respective parameters and with some previous adaptive estimators by simulation of samples using the Monte Carlo method.     

浅析民众注重口头传承英雄史诗《岭·格萨尔王传》的缘由

本文主要从《格萨尔王传》接受者的角度 ,探讨这部英雄史诗在藏民族中盛传不衰的原因 ,提出了一种新的思路和新的方法。     

试论《格萨尔王传》中古代藏族先民的自然保护意识

自古以来,藏族与大自然和谐相处,以独特的方式保护着大自然,进而产生了独特的自然保护意识和生态意识,深心地影响着世世代代的藏族人民。通过藏族英雄史诗《格萨尔王传》可窥探古代藏族先民对自己生活的环境——大自然的朦胧认识、崇拜到竭力保护这一过程,本文阐述了人类不是大自然的主宰者,人类与自然和谐相处,均衡互利,人与自然和谐发展才是永恒的主题与朴素观念。     

Female Labor Supply,Human Capital,and Welfare Reform

We estimate a dynamic model of employment, human capital accumulation—including education, and savings for women in the United Kingdom, exploiting tax and benefit reforms, and use it to analyze the effects of welfare policy. We find substantial elasticities for labor supply and particularly for lone mothers. Returns to experience, which are important in determining the longer‐term effects of policy, increase with education, but experience mainly accumulates when in full‐time employment. Tax credits are welfare improving in the U.K., increase lone‐mother labor supply and marginally reduce educational attainment, but the employment effects do not extend beyond the period of eligibility. Marginal increases in tax credits improve welfare more than equally costly increases in income support or tax cuts.     

抗日文学光环掩盖下的文革

何顿的抗日题材长篇小说《来生再见》,其写作的重心不在抗日,而在文革;作家关注的不是历史,而是普通人在极端政治条件下人性的挣扎。生存环境险恶严酷的抗战时期,主人公黄抗日能够应用自己的生存哲学虎口脱身,回到家中安静地生活;但在文革的政治环境下,他却被逼得装疯、吃屎,家破人亡,生活、人格肢解得体无完肤。作品通过这种对比竖起了一座文革无字碑,形成对文革无言的控诉。     

论《封神演义》的作者

关于《封神演义》的作者目前有两种说法:一是明舒载阳刻本卷二题署“钟山逸叟许仲琳编辑”;二是清乾隆时编篡的《传奇?考》卷七《顺天时》传奇题解云:“《封神演义》系元时道士陆长庚所作,未知的否。”近数十年来已有很多学者坚持陆西星是《封神演义》的作者这一说法,但仍缺少强有力的论据以证此说。本文一方面借鉴柳存仁的论证方法,通过《封神演义》与陆西星的著述进行文本的细读和互勘,找出相同或相似之处,从而推断出于一人之手笔;另一方面从陆西星的丹道思想中分析并推理与《封神》相同之处。     

Eliciting Subjective Survival Curves: Lessons from Partial Identification

When analyzing data on subjective expectations of continuous outcomes, researchers have access to a limited number of reported probabilities for each respondent from which to construct complete distribution functions. Moreover, reported probabilities may be rounded and thus not equal to true beliefs. Using survival expectations elicited from a representative sample from the Netherlands, we investigate what can be learned if we take these two sources of missing information into account and expectations are therefore only partially identified. We find novel evidence for rounding by checking whether reported expectations are consistent with a hazard of death that increases weakly with age. Only 39% of reported beliefs are consistent with this under the assumption that all probabilities are reported precisely, while 92% are if we allow for rounding. Using the available information to construct bounds on subjective life expectancy, we show that the data alone are not sufficiently informative to allow for useful inference in partially identified linear models, even in the absence of rounding. We propose to improve precision by interpolation between rounded probabilities. Interpolation in combination with a limited amount of rounding does yield informative intervals.