A Conditional Approach for Regression Analysis of Longitudinal Data with Informative Observation Time and Non-negligible Observation Duration

Recently, there has been a great interest in the analysis of longitudinal data in which the observation process is related to the longitudinal process. In literature, the observation process was commonly regarded as a recurrent event process. Sometimes some observation duration may occur and this process is referred to as a recurrent episode process. The medical cost related to hospitalization is an example. We propose a conditional modeling approach that takes into account both informative observation process and observation duration. We conducted simulation studies to assess the performance of the method and applied it to a dataset of medical costs.     

微型案例在管理教学中的应用

利用微型案例组织教学，使知识性、真实性、趣味性融为一体，有利于促进教学方法的改革，提高学生学习的积极性和主动性，提高学生分析问题和解决问题的能力。     

高职数学“自主探究”教学模式的实验研究

探讨“自主探究”教学模式对高职数学教学具有重要的作用。研究结果表明：（1）学生的自主探究能力与学生学习兴趣、学习态度之间有密切联系。（2）“自主探究”教学模式在培养学生自主探究能力方面是有效的，并且效果显著。（3）“自主探究”教学模式在提高学生的数学成绩方面是有影响的。     

FDI’s Impact on Transitional Countries, Serbia as a Rational Choice: The FIAT-ZASTAVA Case

The privatization process and foreign direct investments (FDI) are among the most important economic issues in transitional countries. FDI has enormous influence on transitional countries that need serious structural changes. In this paper we will study FIAT’s decision to invest in the Serbian automotive industry. We will try to rationalize FIAT’s decision because Serbian car manufacturer ZASTAVA was not the only alternative for FIAT to invest in the Balkans. In order to justify FIAT’s decision we will apply the Mullins model of horizontal and vertical FDI, examine the importance of the cooperating history between two car manufacturers and compare macroeconomic conditions and Global Competitiveness of Serbia and Romania, which was the main alternative for FIAT. Finally, we will also try to explain why FIAT decided to announce the investment at the end of political campaign in Serbia when pools gave anti-European parties higher chances for victory, instead of waiting to see the outcome of the elections.

解放思想与坚持马克思主义核心理念

中国改革源于时代条件的巨大变化,而它30年来的成绩取决于解放思想,即依据客观实际摆脱本本主义禁锢.解放思想的基本原则是在坚持马克思主义核心理念--从规律意义上认识并实现无产阶级即全人类的解放--基础上,实事求是地确定了中国特色社会主义的政治路线和实践准则.如果说,迄今为止的解放思想主要涉及马克思主义策略原则的话,那么,新一轮解放思想将需要涉及马克思主义逻辑原理.     

基于ITIL的远程教育IT服务管理模型设计

为了解决目前远程教育中IT服务存在的问题,对网络教育学院的IT服务和信息技术基础设施库（ITIL）标准进行了深入研究,提出了适合远程教育的IT服务管理（ITSM）模型,并以北京邮电大学网络教育学院为例,重点描述了模型中的需求分析及需求变更管理、远程教育组织结构设计、应用和基础设施监控管理三个核心流程的设计与实施,该模型为远程教育IT服务提供了解决方案。     

The weighted jackknife for ratio estimation

Using the idea of impirical influence function, Hinkley (1977), the weighted jackknife technique is extended to ratio estimation. A weighted jackknife variance estimator for the ratio estimator is developed. Using the prediction theory approach, the properties of the weighted jackknifed variance estimator are examined. The implications of the failures of regression model on the behaviour of the weighted jackknifed variance estimator, for ratio estimation, are also studied.     

Bayesian Analysis in Regression Models Using Pseudo-Likelihoods

This article deals with the issue of using a suitable pseudo-likelihood, instead of an integrated likelihood, when performing Bayesian inference about a scalar parameter of interest in the presence of nuisance parameters. The proposed approach has the advantages of avoiding the elicitation on the nuisance parameters and the computation of multidimensional integrals. Moreover, it is particularly useful when it is difficult, or even impractical, to write the full likelihood function.

We focus on Bayesian inference about a scalar regression coefficient in various regression models. First, in the context of non-normal regression-scale models, we give a theroetical result showing that there is no loss of information about the parameter of interest when using a posterior distribution derived from a pseudo-likelihood instead of the correct posterior distribution. Second, we present non trivial applications with high-dimensional, or even infinite-dimensional, nuisance parameters in the context of nonlinear normal heteroscedastic regression models, and of models for binary outcomes and count data, accounting also for possibile overdispersion. In all these situtations, we show that non Bayesian methods for eliminating nuisance parameters can be usefully incorporated into a one-parameter Bayesian analysis.     

对高等学校会计制度改革的探讨

2009年8月,财政部会计司下发了《高等学校会计制度（征求意见稿）》的通知后,各高校财务工作都按照《高等学校会计制度（征求意见稿）》要求执行,但高校会计核算工作中还是出现不少新问题,焦点主要在高校固定资产管理、会计科目设置等方面。这主要是由于在高等学校的会计制度中引入权责发生制,而过去高等学校的会计核算采用的是收付实现制。高校会计核算体制虽然有很大改革,但还不够彻底。本文主要针对高等学校会计制度改革中出现的新问题进行了探讨。