Nonparametric smoothing in the analysis of air pollution and respiratory illness

While most of epidemiology is observational, rather than experimental, the culture of epidemiology is still derived from agricultural experiments, rather than other observational fields, such as astronomy or economics. The mismatch is made greater as focus has turned to continue risk factors, multifactorial outcomes, and outcomes with large variation unexplainable by available risk factors. The analysis of such data is often viewed as hypothesis testing with statistical control replacing randomization. However, such approaches often test restricted forms of the hypothesis being investigated, such as the hypothesis of a linear association, when there is no prior empirical or theoretical reason to believe that if an association exists, it is linear. In combination with the large nonstochastic sources of error in such observational studies, this suggests the more flexible alternative of exploring the association. Conclusions on the possible causal nature of any discovered association will rest on the coherence and consistency of multiple studies. Nonparametric smoothing in general, and generalized additive models in particular, represent an attractive approach to such problems. This is illustrated using data examining the relationship between particulate air pollution and daily mortality in Birmingham, Alabama; between particulate air pollution, ozone, and SO₂ and daily hospital admissions for respiratory illness in Philadelphia; and between ozone and particulate air pollution and coughing episodes in children in six eastern U.S. cities. The results indicate that airborne particles and ozone are associated with adverse health outcomes at very low concentrations, and that there are likely no thresholds for these relationships.     

太湖地区水利工程与环境生态

太湖流域水利建设取得了一定的成绩,然而水利工程对该流域的水情、水质、渔业及地方病等也带来若干环境生态问题。所以应该重视水利工程环境影响评价和运用管理,及对水域环境生态指标考核等工作。     

上海市空气污染造成人群健康经济损失的研究

文章通过对上海市空气污染季节性状况的描述 ,分析了各种污染物的污染程度和变化趋势 ,并利用对上海某市级医院的实地调查数据 ,对空气污染物与医院呼吸系统疾病患者日门诊量之间的相关关系进行研讨 ,建立了多元分析模型 ,探讨了患者健康经济损失的计量方法 ,并对由空气污染造成呼吸系统疾病患者健康经济损失进行了估算。研究表明 ,在其他条件不变的情况下 ,NOX 日指数每增长 10 % ,被调查医院呼吸系统疾病患者的日门诊人次增加 7 7人次 ,而这些疾病患者由于患病产生的年度健康经济损失为 2 11万元。据此作保守的推断估计 ,上海市一年内因NOX 超标而发生的呼吸系统疾病门诊行为造成的健康经济损失可以达到 4 2亿元。同样 ,SO2 和TSP造成门诊患者的健康经济损失分别为 1 5亿元和 0 86亿元     

The Role of Cancer Risk in the Regulation of Industrial Pollution

The extent of carcinogen regulation under existing U.S. environmental statutes is assessed by developing measures of the scope and stringency of regulation. While concern about cancer risk has played an important political role in obtaining support for pollution control programs, it has not provided the predominant rationale for most regulatory actions taken to date. Less than 20% of all standards established to limit concentrations of chemicals in various media address carcinogens. Restrictions on chemical use are more frequently based on concerns about noncancer human health or ecological effects. Of the chemicals in commercial use which have been identified as potential human carcinogens on the basis of rodent bioassays, only a small proportion are regulated. There is an inverse relationship between the scope of regulatory coverage and the stringency of regulatory requirements: the largest percentages of identified carcinogens are affected by the least stringent requirements, such as information disclosure. Standards based on de minimis cancer risk levels have been established for only 10% of identified carcinogens and are restricted to one medium: water. Complete bans on use have affected very few chemicals. The general role that carcinogenicity now plays in the regulatory process is not dramatically different from that of other adverse human health effects: if a substance is identified as a hazard, it may eventually be subject to economically achievable and technically feasible restrictions.     

开征环境污染税的理论和现实思考

随着我国工业经济的发展和人口的持续增加 ,环境污染愈益成为影响和制约我国经济可持续发展的重要问题。近年来 ,理论界和实务界一直在探索有关环境保护的有效手段。其中 ,开征环境保护税成为保护环境、促进经济可持续发展的一个重要方略。本文在分析我国适时开征环境保护税的理论依据和实践效应的基础上 ,评析了我国现行有关环境保护的税费政策 ,并借鉴西方国家的可行作法和有益经验 ,对我国适时开征环境保护税提出了初步设想     

自然环境变化的加速度规律

自然环境越来越受到社会的关注 ,近些年来 ,自然环境污染破坏日益严重 ,严重威胁着人类的生存和发展。就森林减少、生物物种减少和土地沙漠化、空气、水体污染加剧等几个方面进行了讨论 ,并分析了自然环境变化的原因 ,同时还对未来自然环境变化进行了预测 ,提出了自然环境变化存在一个加速度的观点     

潘金莲:从《水浒传》到《金瓶梅》

《金瓶梅》的故事框架是从《水浒传》第22回到第31回中移植过来,又加进了作者天才的创造。细比较二书对于同一人物的描写,有助于对《金瓶梅》作者的创作初衷、《金瓶梅》一书主题等方面的探究。文章选用潘金莲作为剖析的材料,发现存在诸多差异,而且这种差异正与二书的主题、表现重点各有不同等息息相关。     

生态环境建设与渭河污染治理研究

据渭河流经陕西区域经济社会发展状况及渭河水质现状，通过国家地表水环境质量标准与有关工业、生活污水管理排放标准比较分析，提出在加强监督管理和污染治理的同时更应重视渭河流域生态环及环境建设与保护在渭河污染治理、恢复其应有功能所起到的重要作用。     

西安环境污染经济损失估算与分析

为有效监测、控制环境污染,保护城市环境,采用市场价值法、修正人力资本法和工程费用法等估算方法,对2002年西安市大气污染、水污染和固体废弃物污染造成的经济损失进行测算评估,通过各项指标和数据分析环境污染状况,给出西安市因大气、水和固体废弃物污染造成的经济损失估算结果。结论认为,西安市环境状况依然十分严峻,2002年因环境污染造成的直接经济损失高达7.30亿元。城市污染治理和城市环境保护由此成为西安市经济可持续发展的首要前提。     

论可持续发展战略下环境成本的计量方法

随着经济的不断发展,环境污染的日益加重,人们也越来越重视环境会计的研究。环境会计在处理数据、生成和传递环境信息的过程中,所涉及的关键问题便是环境会计的计量。而环境成本的计量又是环境会计研究中最重要的一环,在实践中可运用环境成本计量的基本方法及基本的计量模型。正确计量环境成本是环境成本核算的前提,对企业拥有的自然资源中可以计量的部分进行合理的估计,有利于满足社会各方面对环境问题提出的客观要求。