简析《德伯家的苔丝》的悲剧性及其成因

哈代在《德伯家的苔丝》中成功地塑造了女主公苔丝的形象,其文中所描写的苔丝出外谋生和一失足千古恨的悲剧,具有巨大的悲剧研究的社会价值。通过从社会和个人性格两个不同的方面分析了苔丝悲剧产生的原因,使读者在理性地欣赏其作品的同时,更深刻地感受到作品所营造的悲剧效果和艺术感染力。     

Economic and economic statistical designs for three-level control charts

In some situations, an appropriate quality measure uses three or more discrete levels to classify a product characteristic. For these situations, some control charts have been developed based on statistical criteria regardless of economic considerations. In this paper, we develop economic and economic statistical designs (ESD) for 3-level control charts. We apply the cost model proposed by Costa and Rahim.[Economic design of X charts with variable parameters: the Markov chain approach, J Appl Stat 28 (2001), 875–885] Furthermore, we assume that the length of time that the process remains in control is exponentially distributed which allows us to apply the Markov chain approach for developing the cost model. We apply a genetic algorithm to determine the optimal values of model parameters by minimizing the cost function. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the performance of the proposed models and to compare the cost of the pure economic and ESD for three-level control charts. A sensitivity analysis is also conducted in this numerical example.     

Extending social security coverage to the rural sector in China

In late 2009 China launched an innovative, voluntary programme that by 2011 had extended pension coverage to 326.4 million people in the rural sector, including contributors and beneficiaries. It requires one contribution per year and provides a flat‐rate benefit and a contributions‐related benefit through a contributory individual account, with a government guarantee that the benefit will continue for life. The programme encourages participation of persons who do not pay income taxes, and thus have no tax incentive to participate, by providing substantial government subsidies. As a further incentive, old‐age benefits are provided to older parents when all their adult children participate in the contributory programme.     

Electronic payment mechanisms in social security: Extending the reach of benefit and contribution transactions

More often than not, the existing modes of contribution collection and benefit payment of social security organizations are adapted to the collective arrangements that characterize employer‐employee relationships. Extending coverage to individuals in difficult‐to‐reach groups, however, may require new modalities of service that can cope with many separate, secure transactions rather than a few bulk data transfers between organizations. Recent developments in electronic payment show its wide applicability in enabling huge volumes of such individual transactions. It is in this light that the article explores the potentials of this technology and identifies possible arrangements through which electronic payments could surmount barriers that stand in the way of covering difficult‐to‐reach groups. The high level of mobile phone penetration on a global scale augurs well for using e‐payment mechanisms to collect social security contributions and to deliver social security benefits and services. A generic model is used to describe the requisite elements to implement electronic payments in social protection programmes. Based on empirical evidence of current social protection practices from around the world, five scenarios are presented to describe possible configurations for electronic payment, from the simplest to the most sophisticated. The broader objective is to contribute in a practical manner to the international commitment to extend social protection to all, as defined by the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals.     

永泰县城区空气中主要污染物类别及其影响因素分析

经监测,永泰县城区大气污染物主要为PMl0、PM2.5、O3,影响O3的因素主要有汽车尾气排放、日照,PMl0、PM2.5浓度大小除与车流量、烟花爆竹燃放相关外,还与降水、风速等气象因素密切关联。针对这些影响因素,该文提出了相应的防治措施。     

An Integrated Risk Assessment Model of Township‐Scaled Land Subsidence Based on an Evidential Reasoning Algorithm and Fuzzy Set Theory

Land subsidence risk assessment (LSRA) is a multi‐attribute decision analysis (MADA) problem and is often characterized by both quantitative and qualitative attributes with various types of uncertainty. Therefore, the problem needs to be modeled and analyzed using methods that can handle uncertainty. In this article, we propose an integrated assessment model based on the evidential reasoning (ER) algorithm and fuzzy set theory. The assessment model is structured as a hierarchical framework that regards land subsidence risk as a composite of two key factors: hazard and vulnerability. These factors can be described by a set of basic indicators defined by assessment grades with attributes for transforming both numerical data and subjective judgments into a belief structure. The factor‐level attributes of hazard and vulnerability are combined using the ER algorithm, which is based on the information from a belief structure calculated by the Dempster‐Shafer (D‐S) theory, and a distributed fuzzy belief structure calculated by fuzzy set theory. The results from the combined algorithms yield distributed assessment grade matrices. The application of the model to the Xixi‐Chengnan area, China, illustrates its usefulness and validity for LSRA. The model utilizes a combination of all types of evidence, including all assessment information—quantitative or qualitative, complete or incomplete, and precise or imprecise—to provide assessment grades that define risk assessment on the basis of hazard and vulnerability. The results will enable risk managers to apply different risk prevention measures and mitigation planning based on the calculated risk states.     

Using In Vitro High‐Throughput Screening Data for Predicting Benzo[k]Fluoranthene Human Health Hazards

Today there are more than 80,000 chemicals in commerce and the environment. The potential human health risks are unknown for the vast majority of these chemicals as they lack human health risk assessments, toxicity reference values, and risk screening values. We aim to use computational toxicology and quantitative high‐throughput screening (qHTS) technologies to fill these data gaps, and begin to prioritize these chemicals for additional assessment. In this pilot, we demonstrate how we were able to identify that benzo[k]fluoranthene may induce DNA damage and steatosis using qHTS data and two separate adverse outcome pathways (AOPs). We also demonstrate how bootstrap natural spline‐based meta‐regression can be used to integrate data across multiple assay replicates to generate a concentration–response curve. We used this analysis to calculate an in vitro point of departure of 0.751 μM and risk‐specific in vitro concentrations of 0.29 μM and 0.28 μM for 1:1,000 and 1:10,000 risk, respectively, for DNA damage. Based on the available evidence, and considering that only a single HSD17B4 assay is available, we have low overall confidence in the steatosis hazard identification. This case study suggests that coupling qHTS assays with AOPs and ontologies will facilitate hazard identification. Combining this with quantitative evidence integration methods, such as bootstrap meta‐regression, may allow risk assessors to identify points of departure and risk‐specific internal/in vitro concentrations. These results are sufficient to prioritize the chemicals; however, in the longer term we will need to estimate external doses for risk screening purposes, such as through margin of exposure methods.     

A general central limit theorem and a subsampling variance estimator for α‐mixing point processes

We establish a central limit theorem for multivariate summary statistics of nonstationary α‐mixing spatial point processes and a subsampling estimator of the covariance matrix of such statistics. The central limit theorem is crucial for establishing asymptotic properties of estimators in statistics for spatial point processes. The covariance matrix subsampling estimator is flexible and model free. It is needed, for example, to construct confidence intervals and ellipsoids based on asymptotic normality of estimators. We also provide a simulation study investigating an application of our results to estimating functions.     

The arithmetic of outcome editing in financial and social domains

Outcome editing refers to a set of mental rules that people apply when deciding whether to evaluate multiple outcomes jointly or separately, which subsequently affects choice. In a large-scale online survey (n = 2062) we investigate whether individuals use the same outcome editing rules for financial outcomes (e.g., a lottery win) and social outcomes (e.g., a party with friends). We also test the role of numeric ability in explaining outcome editing. Our results show that people’s preferences for combining or separating events depend on whether those events are in the financial or the social domain. Specifically, individuals were more likely to segregate social outcomes than monetary outcomes, except for when all outcomes were negative. Moreover, numeric ability was associated with preferences for outcome editing in the financial domain but not in the social domain. Our findings extend the understanding of the arithmetic operations underlying outcome editing and suggest that people rely more on calculations when making choices involving multiple financial outcomes and more on feelings when making choices involving social outcomes.     

Social health protection in Cambodia: Challenges of policy design and implementation

The Government of Cambodia is implementing ambitious reform initiatives to improve the country's social health protection system. In January 2018, it was announced that the Health Equity Fund (HEF), which is fully subsidized by a joint government‐donor initiative for the reimbursement of user fees for the poor at public health facilities, is to be expanded to some segments of informal workers belonging to associations, as well as to commune and village chiefs. Since 2017, the National Social Security Fund (NSSF) has provided social health insurance for formal economy workers in enterprises with eight employees or more. In January 2018, it was expanded to civil servants and all employees regardless of the size of the enterprise. However, this article highlights that the new ambitious reforms are not accompanied by careful planning as regards funding, service delivery, human resources and institutional design. This article therefore aims to examine key policy issues and challenges for Cambodia's ambitious reform of its social health protection system in terms of resource generation, population coverage, strategic purchasing and governance.