DOES THE BETTER‐THAN‐AVERAGE EFFECT SHOW THAT PEOPLE ARE OVERCONFIDENT?: TWO EXPERIMENTS

We conduct two experimental tests of the claim that people are overconfident, using new tests of overplacement that are based on a formal Bayesian model. Our two experiments, on easy quizzes, find that people overplace themselves. More precisely, we find apparently overconfident data that cannot be accounted for by a rational population of expected utility maximizers who care only about money. The finding represents new evidence of overconfidence that is robust to the Bayesian critique offered by Benoît and Dubra (Jean‐Pierre Benoît and Juan Dubra (2011). “Apparent Overconfidence.” Econometrica, 79, 1591–1625). We discuss possible limitations of our results.     

REFERENCE POINTS,SOCIAL NORMS,AND FAIRNESS IN CONTRACT RENEGOTIATIONS

How does an ex‐ante contract affect behavior in an ex‐post renegotiation game? We address this question in a canonical buyer–seller relationship with renegotiation. Our paper provides causal experimental evidence that an initial contract has a highly significant and economically important impact on renegotiation behavior that goes beyond the effect of contracts on bargaining threat points. We compare situations in which an initial contract is renegotiated to strategically equivalent bargaining situations in which no ex‐ante contract was written. The ex‐ante contract causes sellers to ask for markups that are 45% lower than in strategically equivalent bargaining situations without an initial contract. Moreover, buyers are more likely to reject given markups in renegotiations than in negotiations. These effects do not depend on whether the contract was written under competitive or monopolistic conditions. Our results provide strong evidence supporting the hypothesis that contracts serve as reference points that shape and coordinate the expectations of the contracting parties.     

UNBUNDLING THE INCUMBENT: EVIDENCE FROM UK BROADBAND

We consider the impact of a regulatory process forcing an incumbent telecom operator to make its local broadband network available to other companies (local loop unbundling, or LLU). Entrants are then able to upgrade their individual lines and offer Internet services directly to customers. Employing a very detailed data set covering the whole of the United Kingdom, we find that, over the course of time, many entrants have begun to take advantage of unbundling. LLU entry only had a positive effect on broadband penetration in the early years, and no longer in the recent years as the market reached maturity. In contrast, LLU entry continues to have a positive impact on the quality of the service provided, as entrants differentiate their products upwards compared to the incumbent. We also assess the impact of competition from an alternative form of technology (cable) which is not subject to regulation, and what we discover is that inter‐platform competition has a positive impact on both penetration and quality.     

The Role of Project and Organizational Context in Managing High‐tech R&D Projects

High‐tech organizations often struggle to manage different types of R&D projects. Evidence from research and practice suggests that managers frequently categorize and manage projects based on the extent of change triggered in product, process, technology, and market dimensions. However, this can create challenges in high‐tech organizations. This study investigates how high‐tech organizations manage R&D projects based on their learning goals. First, we argue for the benefits of categorizing R&D projects based on the degree of exploration and exploitation learning goals. A qualitative case study from four high‐tech business units involving 10 R&D projects helps understand the different types of projects based on their learning goals. The case study shows that R&D projects in high‐tech organizations typically fall into three categories based on their learning goals: Radical innovation projects, Incremental innovation projects, and Hybrid projects. Second, we iterate between literature and evidence from our qualitative data to theorize how project context and organizational context affect project performance depending on the type of project. The data for the empirical analysis come from a multilevel survey of 110 R&D projects across 34 high‐tech business units. Results show the importance of designing project and organizational context differently for the three types of R&D projects. Collectively, this study offers a new perspective on how to manage high‐tech R&D projects.     

Estimating intrahousehold allocation in a collective model with household production

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the intra-family distribution of income and the individual demand for leisure and household production from Swedish cross-sectional household data. As a basis for the analysis, we use a collective model where each individual is characterized by his or her own utility function and divides total time between leisure, household production and market work. For the purpose of comparison, we also estimate a version that is consistent with a more traditional model of labor supply, the unitary model. Received: 14 April 2000/Accepted: 12 January 2001     

对比分析吉特鲁德和七巧的变态反叛意识

通过对劳伦斯和张爱玲的代表作<儿子与情人>和<金锁记>中的女主人公吉特鲁德和七巧由于婚姻不幸,从天真烂漫的少女变成了变态的母亲的描述,对比分析她们身上反映出来的男权社会下的女性反叛意识.     

钛酸锶钡溶胶制备研究

用锶、钡的有机酸盐和钛酸丁酯为原料,以溶胶-凝胶法制备了钛酸锶钡溶皎。考察了有机酸分子量、溶胶的水解方法对溶胶亲润性、湿敏性、二氧化碳敏感性、成膜均匀性、热解性等的影响。实验得出:先将钛酸丁酯的乙酸乙酯溶液部分水解,然后与锶、钡的正辛酸盐、2-乙基己酸盐或壬酸盐的乙酸乙酯溶液充分混合,所得的溶胶具有较好的综合性能。     

符号与空间的神秘隐喻——从二维抽象符号与三维形象空间解读左江崖画的宗教意蕴

左江崖画有不少较为抽象的图像符号,包括各种环形圆圈和飞禽图像,这些二维抽象符号所隐喻的原始宗教意蕴不能不引起我们的注意。另外,左江崖画在大空间上有两个特点,一是朝南,二是做于临江悬崖。这些空间特点显然暗含着古人的某些神秘观念,因此,有必要从宗教文化学的角度解读左江崖画的二维抽象符号和三维形象空间所隐喻的文化指向。     

技术创新能力及其测度指标研究综述

首先对国内外有关学者对于技术创新能力的认识加以综述,接着探讨了评价技术创新能力的指标体系,重点介绍了几个主要指标。文章的最后对现阶段研究的现状加以总结概括。     

能源-经济-环境(3E)系统协调度评价模型研究

能源系统与经济系统、环境系统存在着相互影响、相互制约的发展关系，三者的协调发展是3E系统发展的最终目标。虽然有关系统协调的研究较多，但大多现有模型与方法难以解决如3E 系统这样的复杂社会系统的协调问题，因此通过研究系统协调的概念与内涵，以解决社会复杂系统的协调发展问题为主要目标，从系统发展速度的角度重新给出了系统协调度的数量表达式，并在此基础上建立了3E系统协调度评价模型。通过实证研究证明该模型能够定量化的表达3E 系统协调发展状况，从而为3E 系统协调发展策略的制定与选择提供决策依据。