黑龙江省农业社会化服务体系问题探索

黑龙江省发展农业社会化服务体系 ,在总体上 ,应选择以“乡村集体经济组织 农户”为基础 ,以“合作经济组织 农户”为主导 ,以“政府 农户”为依托 ,以“公司 农户”为补充的多元化模式 ;并建立相应的竞争机制、利益分配机制、激励机制和约束机制。     

家庭功能变迁中的养老选择

进入人口老龄化的中国正处于高速转型期。社会结构、社会的价值观念等都发生着剧烈的变化。而这一切又正冲击着家庭的养老功能,形成养老方式多样化的格局。不过无论这些养老方式走向何方,居住方式皆是养老选择的一项重要影响因素。     

Comments on Montague J. Lord's “distributional effects of international commodity price stabilization: Do the aggregate gains apply to individual producing countries?” [JPM 3:61–75 (1981)]

Lord discusses the impact of international commodity price stabilization on Latin American producing country export revenues. He correctly emphasizes that the directions and magnitudes of such effects may vary substantially across producers, depending on the degree of segmentation of the commodity markets and the nature and distribution of the shocks. However his potential contribution may be lost because of a number of inaccuracies, which I discuss under three general topics.     

浅析社保基金入市实现基金增值

社会保障基金进入资本市场运营是其实现保值增值的重要途径。加强对社保基金入市的目标、投资管理方式、投资管理机构、投资工具以及监管模式的选择,坚持市场化运作,使社保基金有效地实现基金的保值增值,具有重大的战略意义。     

Helping families when child sexual abuse is suspected but not proven

This paper reports from a project investigating reactions within families when intra‐familial child sexual abuse was suspected, and family members’ responses to a therapeutic approach. Data were obtained from therapeutic sessions and follow‐up interviews with mothers, children and alleged perpetrators. Before treatment the mothers felt uncertain as to how to interpret the children’s unclear signs. The children had severe symptoms, but had seldom disclosed abuse. The alleged perpetrators were often not informed about the suspicions. The families were in a state of crisis and shock, and communication within the family was characterized by uncertainty about what to talk about and whether the suspicions should be shared. In most cases after treatment the conflicts had been reduced, the children had few symptoms, supervised contact had been established, and the clients were satisfied with the treatment. One conclusion is that therapeutic sessions, where family members share information about concerns and take part in the decisions of how to protect children, seem relevant and helpful to the clients in unclear abuse cases.     

“五十年时期”雅典对外政策的变化

从希波战争到伯罗奔尼撒战争的"五十年时期"在希腊史上占有非常重要的地位.而雅典作为希腊世界的主角之一,其力量在这一阶段得到了急剧的发展,但却在伯罗奔尼撒战争中一败涂地.从"五十年时期"雅典对波斯和希腊大陆的外交政策的变化,从"五十年时期"雅典对外政策的角度出发,可以探求出雅典力量的兴衰.     

International cooperation in stockpiles and tariffs for coping with oil supply disruptions

This paper provides a unified treatment of oil stockpiling and demand restraint as policy responses for enhancing energy security and examines the implications of recent changes in the structure and performance of the international oil market for the design of policies. These issues are addressed using a dynamic programming framework in which international policy actions of key oil-importing countries are modeled as a Nash dynamic game. Significant policy implications from the analysis include: (1) the result that, with realistic assumptions about disruption risks and inventory capacities, differences between noncooperative and coordinated stockpile policies appear to be minor and (2) significant mutual gains could be reaped from a modest degree of collective restraint on normal market oil demand. The broader role of international cooperation in enhancing energy security is also discussed.     

A model of the Canadian global exchange rate: A test of the 1970s

This comment points out some methodological weaknesses in the Canadian global exchange rate model and the associated efficiency tests of Marwah and Bodkin. The model is found to be inadequate for policy analysis.     

The determinants of international creditworthiness and their policy implications

The present paper utilizes an empirical measure of creditworthiness based on bankers' perceptions to estimate the effect of various variables hypothesized to influence assessments of countries' debt-servicing capacity. The data pertain to a cross section of countries within the period 1979–1983. Such estimates necessarily employ a ceteris paribus assumption, which prevents a realistic assessment of the effects generated by policy changes. The second part of the paper develops, therefore, a dynamic simulation model of a hypothetical average economy. The simulations allow analysis of changes in macroeconomic variables and creditworthiness over time within a system that maintains accounting identities and behavioral constraints. Several changes in policy variables are considered that highlight the importance of export expansion. The latter is, of course, an often suggested policy objective, but the present paper demonstrates its effectiveness in terms of a somewhat nonstandard criterion.     

The linkage effects of raw material processing in economic development: A survey of modeling and other approaches

Processing of primary raw materials has become an important and widely recommended strategy for economic development. Yet, even as the councils of many LDCs call for primary commodity producers to gain greater participation in downstream activities, there remain doubts on fundamental questions:What comparative advantage and what disadvantages do processing activities have in the LDCs?What linkages do processing activities offer?What is the potential contribution of processing to economic goal attainment in the LDCs?In this article we survey the material on processing, particularly with respect to modeling direct and indirect linkages between processing and the LDC economies. The article examines the following topics: (1) the literature on processing in economic development; (2) modeling processing linkages; and (3) outstanding questions regarding processing linkages.We focus on quantifiable linkages between the processing industry and the rest of the economy. There is also the possibility of other linkages, such as the development of entrepreneurship and management talent and technology, that are more difficult to quantify. It is important to distinguish between micro linkages, which refer to the direct impact on supplier and user sectors, and macro linkages, which include indirect general economic effects transmitted through government revenue and expenditures, the money supply, and foreign exchange availabilities.