中国各民族人口发展状况的度量

人口是社会生活的主体,人口发展是社会发展的重要组成部分。但度量社会发展的方法还存在一些难以解决的问题。利用现有的评价方法,尚不能全面准确地反映中国各民族人口发展的现状。为了更加全面准确地把握人口发展状态,构建了衡量人口发展的指标体系,按照这个指标体系,分析中国各民族人口的发展现状、各民族在发展过程中所处的位置,以及他们目前存在的突出问题。     

Investigating the Structural Validity of Ryff’s Psychological Well-Being Scales Across Two Samples

Ryff’s (1989b) Psychological Well-Being (PWB) scales measure six related constructs of human functioning. The present paper examined the validity of Ryff’s 6-factor PWB model, using data from a life events study (N = 401) and an organisational climate study (N = 679). Previous validation studies, using Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA), have identified alternative PWB models, but limitations include the use of shorter scale versions with items relating to a number of life domains within the same PWB factor, and failure to examine the influence of participants’ socio-demographic characteristics on PWB. In this study, Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) mostly found consistency in the PWB items and structure between the two studies whereby a 3-factor model delineated between items relating to Autonomy, Positive Relations and a super-ordinate factor comprising the other PWB factors. Using CFA, Goodness of Fit indices reached acceptable levels for the adjusted PWB model identified by the EFA, whilst differences between adjusted models of PWB previously identified in the literature were hardly evident. Post-hoc analysis by gender demonstrated socio-demographic effects on the structure and items that comprise PWB. Further development of PWB measures is needed to reflect its hierarchical and multi-dimensional nature. In the scales’ current form, the construct validation of the PWB factors will continue to be problematic and will fail to adequately evaluate the nature and impact of PWB.     

A time-varying measurement error model for age of onset of a psychiatric diagnosis: applied to first depressive episode diagnosed by the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI)

A substantial degree of uncertainty exists surrounding the reconstruction of events based on memory recall. This form of measurement error affects the performance of structured interviews such as the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI), an important tool to assess mental health in the community. Measurement error probably explains the discrepancy in estimates between longitudinal studies with repeated assessments (the gold-standard), yielding approximately constant rates of depression, versus cross-sectional studies which often find increasing rates closer in time to the interview. Repeated assessments of current status (or recent history) are more reliable than reconstruction of a person's psychiatric history based on a single interview. In this paper, we demonstrate a method of estimating a time-varying measurement error distribution in the age of onset of an initial depressive episode, as diagnosed by the CIDI, based on an assumption regarding age-specific incidence rates. High-dimensional non-parametric estimation is achieved by the EM-algorithm with smoothing. The method is applied to data from a Norwegian mental health survey in 2000. The measurement error distribution changes dramatically from 1980 to 2000, with increasing variance and greater bias further away in time from the interview. Some influence of the measurement error on already published results is found.     

The classification accuracy of four problem gambling assessment instruments in population research

Improved methodology was used to re-examine the weak correspondence between problem and pathological gamblers identified in population surveys and subsequent classification of these individuals in clinical interviews. The SOGS-R, the CPGI, the NODS and the Problem and Pathological Gambling Measure (PPGM), as well as questions about gambling participation and expenditures, were administered to a total of 7272 adults. Two clinicians then assessed each person's status, based on comprehensive written profiles derived from these questionnaire responses. Instrument classification was then compared to clinical classification. All four instruments correctly classified most non-problem gamblers (i.e. had good to excellent sensitivity, specificity and negative predictive power). However, the PPGM was the only instrument with good classification of problem gamblers (i.e. excellent sensitivity and positive predictive power). The CPGI and SOGS-R had weak positive predictive power and the NODS had only adequate sensitivity and positive predictive power. Improvement in the classification accuracy of the CPGI occurred when a 5+ cut-off was used and when a 4+ cut-off was used with the SOGS. In general, the classification accuracy of the NODS, SOGS and CPGI is better than prior research suggested but overall accuracy is still modest. With adjusted cut-offs, all three instruments are reasonably congruent with clinical ratings.     

Reflections on Changes in the Library and Serials Literature

Abstract

Johnson describes changes in library journal literature topics over the past one hundred years, with a focus on the period between her first Balance Point column in 2003 and this one, her last. She reminisces on her experience as a Balance Point column editor.     

公允价值会计——理论基础与现实选择

会计计量是财务会计的核心问题。作为一种新的会计 ,公允价值会计为知识经济时代大量涌现的无形资产、衍生金融工具提供了更加合理、更加有用的会计计量模式。文章重点讨论的公允价值会计产生的背景和历程以及公允价值会计的实质。公允价值会计的核心是现值的运用。公允价值会计的发展和使用已是大势所趋 ,为我国未来会计准则的制定导向也必然会带来影响。     

交易费用计量与广义价格

分析了新制度经济学家在交易费用计量研究上出现难题的原因,找到了一个可行的交易费用计量路径,指出了交易费用计量与广义价格的关系,提出了交易费用计量问题的解决办法和"交易费用的有机构成"概念。     

Prevalence Rates of Youth Gambling Problems: Are the Current Rates Inflated?

While there is a general consensus in the literature that it is common for youth to gamble, considerable variability in the reported prevalence rates of youth problem gambling has been found. More recently, issues concerning the possible overestimation of these rates have been raised. Arguments underlying the proposition that problem gambling rates for youth are inflated are examined. It is acknowledged that more rigorous research is required, including the need for the development and refinement of current adolescent instruments and screening tools, agreement upon a gold standard criterion for adolescent problem gambling, and clarity of nomenclature issues. The advancement of scientific knowledge concerning the underlying risk factors associated with the onset and course of youth gambling involvement and the role of effective adolescent prevention and treatment programs will require these fundamental research questions to be addressed.     

On the analysis of multivariate repeated measures designs

The relationship between the mixed-model analysis and multivariate approach to a repeated measures design with multiple responses is presented. It is shown that by taking the trace of the appropriate submatrix of the hypothesis (error) sums of squares and crossproducts (SSCP) matrix obtained from the multivariate approach, one can get the hypothesis (error) SSCP matrix for the mixed-model analysis. Thus, when analyzing data from a multivariate repeated measures design, it is advantageous to use the multivariate approach because the result of the mixed-model analysis can also be obtained without additional computation.     

再利用逆向供应链绩效的TFOWA评价法

文章针对某包装类产品再利用逆向供应链,在对平衡记分卡方法的理解基础上进行改进和扩展,并结合关键绩效指标KPI方法,研究了再利用逆向供应链整体绩效评价体系的构建问题;考虑到数据来源环境的模糊不确定性,引入TFOWA算子对其进行评价,给出了其在应用过程中的具体步骤.最后通过算例说明了方法的可行性和有效性.