Philosophical Views and Basic Theories of System Dynamics

System dynamics, founded by professor Forrester at Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1956, is a discipline which analyzes and studies the system of information feedback. Basic views of theories of system dynamics distinctively show its dialectical characteristics. More attention should be paid to the features of complicated nonlinear systems. The model simulation of system dynamics is a kind of structure-function simulation. One of the remarkable advantages of system dynamics is that it can handle problems of high order, nonlinear and multiplefeedback system.     

加强高校以教研室为单位的基层党组织建设

面对高校教师基层党组织建设面临的新形势和建设中存在的问题,应该以改革的精神切实加强教师基层党组织建设。支部建在教研室有利于教师基层党组织发挥战斗堡垒作用,为高校的健康、快速发展提供强有力的保证。     

论大学毕业生就业市场化

从大学毕业生就业由精英层面走向大众层面的观点入手,阐述了树立四个方面的市场化就业观,探讨了构建“大基地———大市场———大就业”格局的市场化就业方法对学校应做的工作提出了思考。     

企业源头文化本质探析

企业源头文化是一个新概念,产生于对“办企业”之基本问题的自觉思考和探索。企业源头文化的本质:是对经营使命的思考,凝结了对原始出发点的探索;是对经营根本目标的思考,凝结了对原始愿景的探索;是对经营根本思路的思考,凝结了对原始核心理念的探索;是对经营支持力量的思考,凝结了对原始精神的探索。企业应自觉打造源头文化,将企业提升到文化层面运作。     

日本面向21世纪的“教育立国”新政策

日本2008《教育振兴基本计划》核心内容的三个方面是教育振兴基本计划法律依据和相关程序;实现教育振兴基本计划的十年具体目标;保障教育振兴计划实施的具体措施。教育振兴基本计划的制定和实施,体现出日本在21世纪致力于建立一个政府、学校、社会及家庭的共同推动教育振兴计划的综合教育机制,为日本提出的新世纪教育理念和人才战略的如期实现提供了有力保障。     

A Question of Ethics

This article identifies three consulting roles—helper, leader, and colleague; recommends that statistical consultants ask more questions about basic mechanisms; suggests that statistical consultants regard their primary responsibility as providing guidance about the scientific method itself; discusses the need for continuing education to help improve consulting skills; and describes Wisconsin's Master's degree examination, which was designed to help students become effective practicing statisticians.     

多源流理论视角下《新时代基础教育强师计划》政策议程解析

以多源流理论为分析框架,对《新时代基础教育强师计划》制定过程进行深入分析。研究得出：多组客观数据指标所表征的教师思想素质、能力素养、资源配置、地位待遇等问题,在师德失范焦点事件的伴奏以及相关政策反馈信息的推动下迅速形成问题流;政府部门人员倡议、相关政策措施、专家学者利益共同体的回应汇聚成为政策流;强烈的国民情绪以及党的“办好人民满意的教育”的执政意识与理念构成政治流。三源流不断嵌套、互动、积累,在“耦合”之时,开启政策之窗,促成《强师计划》政策议程的确立。     

Quasi-optimal Bayesian procedures of many hypotheses testing

Quasi-optimal procedures of testing many hypotheses are described in this paper. They significantly simplify the Bayesian algorithms of hypothesis testing and computation of the risk function. The relations allowing for obtaining the estimations for the values of average risks in optimum tasks are given. The obtained general solutions are reduced to concrete formulae for a multivariate normal distribution of probabilities. The methods of approximate computation of the risk functions in Bayesian tasks of testing many hypotheses are offered. The properties and interrelations of the developed methods and algorithms are investigated. On the basis of a simulation, the validity of the obtained results and conclusions drawn is presented.     

Not all computerized cheating tasks are equal: A comparison of computerized and non-computerized versions of a cheating task

Computerized versions of population inferred cheating tasks (C-PICT)—i.e., tasks in which dishonesty is statistically determined on the aggregate by comparing self-reported outcomes with a known probability distribution—have become increasingly popular. To this date no study has investigated whether non-computerized population inferred cheating tasks (PICT) and C-PICT as well as different implementations of C-PICT produce similar results. The current study tackles both issues via a well-powered pre-registered online experiment (N = 3,645) with four conditions. Participants played either a non-computerized coin toss task (CTT) (C1) or one of three computerized CTT: a computerized CTT provided via an external website (C2), a computerized CTT provided within the survey framework of the study in which participants were explicitly informed that the actual outcome of the CTT was not monitored (C3), or a computerized CTT provided within the survey framework of the study in which participants were explicitly informed that the actual outcome of the CTT was monitored (C4). A priori we expected the probability of dishonesty to be higher in C1 compared to C2, C3, and C4, as well as lower in C4 compared to C3 and C2. Results show that the probability of dishonesty is higher in C1 and C2 compared to C3 and C4. Conversely, no significant difference was observed between C1 and C2, nor between C3 and C4. Taken together, our results indicate that C-PICT produce results similar to PICT when they are provided via an external website, but not when they are implemented within the survey framework of the study.