Coverage of the population in Census 2000: Results from Demographic Analysis

Since the 1960 Census, Demographic Analysis (DA) has been used by the Census Bureau to evaluate the coverage of the population. Administrative statistics on births, deaths, immigration and Medicare enrollments as well as estimates of legal emigration and net undocumented immigration are used to produce demographic analysis estimates of the population for the census date. These estimates are compared to the Census 2000 data to evaluate coverage in the census. The results are also compared to measures of undercount obtained from dual system estimation. The DA measures substantial reduction in net undercount in Census 2000 compared to 1990. The reductions occur among all demographic categories: all broad age groups, males and females, Blacks and Non-Blacks.     

中国城乡社会安全网的覆盖面与横向公平性问题

在市场转型的过程,中国政府在社会安全网的重新编织上作出了极大的努力。社会救助体系开始制度化,近四千万贫困人群从中受益。但是,社会安全网的发展并不平衡。农村地区贫困人口多,但社会救助受益者反而少,甚至众多生活在赤贫状态下的农民没有这项权利。由于救助标准的差异,很多地区依照当地生活标准处于赤贫状态的民众也无权享受社会救助。社会安全网的健全,必须重视横向公平的实现,即让不同地区的贫困人群能够享受大体相同的社会救助。     

网络艺术传播中的社会行为

网络艺术作品的生产过程具有复合性、欣赏性、协作性和多样性的特征;网络艺术的传播具有信息流通的双向性、视听符号的统一性、现实世界与虚拟世界的交互性、传播广度的宽泛性、传播者的自控性以及传播者与受众共享性的特征。因此,无论是生产还是消费,网络艺术的传播行为都呈现出社会化的互动过程。网络艺术传播正是在这样一个双向选择与互动中得到不断深化与发展。     

北京市投资、消费、净出口与经济增长的实证研究

本文通过国际比较和建立模型,分析了北京市1978-2009年投资、消费、净出口与GDP增长的关系,结合北京市"十二五规划"提出的GDP增长率、投资率、消费率等指标,针对首都转变经济发展方式中存在的突出问题以及政府宏观调控的路径选择提出了政策建议。     

基于R_Vine Copula方法的上证行业指数相关性研究

以中国上海证券交易所的金融地产、原材料、工业、可选消费、主要消费、公用事业、能源、电信业务、医药卫生和信息技术十大行业指数为研究对象,运用能够同时考察多市场相关关系的Vine Copula方法,对这十大行业指数间的净相关关系进行实证分析。主要结果表明: 中国上证行业指数之间具有显著的非对称和厚尾相关特征;非条件下两个行业指数之间以及条件下一些3个或者4个行业指数之间有较强的相关性;而5个或5个以上行业指数之间的条件相关性表现出相互独立,因而在熊市时选择5个及以上不同行业同时投资,能够达到有效分散风险的目的;与D_Vine Copula及C_Vine Copula模型相比,R_Vine Copula模型更适合于刻画中国行业指数之间的相关关系。     

Public Perception of "Who is a Volunteer": An Examination of the Net-Cost Approach from a Cross-Cultural Perspective

Our aim is to enhance the knowledge regarding how the public assess and rate volunteerism. We begin by first developing the model for understanding the potential use of the net-cost concept in eliciting the public's subjective perceptions on the extent to which certain activities are perceived as volunteerism. Four hypotheses relevant to the use of the net-cost concept are developed. We developed a questionnaire consisting of 50 case scenarios and applied it in Canada, India, Italy, Netherlands, and Georgia and Philadelphia in the United States, each with a sample of 450 adults or more. With one exception, our net-cost hypotheses are supported, suggesting that the public perception of volunteering is strongly linked with the costs and benefits that accrue to the individual from the volunteering activity, and that this result holds true across different cultures. Finally, we suggest directions for future research that can shed further light on the relationship between net cost and public good.     

基于资源流网络优化的Max-npv项目调度

活动拖期通过资源流网络的传递会严重影响项目的净现值收益。针对该问题，本文首先在确定性环境下采用模拟退火算法(SA)构建了Max-NPV(Maximize the Net Present Value)非鲁棒性基准调度计划，然后考虑到活动工期的不确定性，设计了MEPC(Minimize Expected Penalty Cost)资源流网络优化算法，通过鲁棒性资源分配实现净现值期望惩罚成本最小化。大规模仿真对比实验结果表明，在活动工期低、中、高三种不确定性程度下，相对于采用随机资源分配算法(SA+RRAS)构建的非鲁棒性调度计划，SA+MEPC算法构建的鲁棒性调度计划在项目净现值实际收益、调度计划的“解”鲁棒性和“质”鲁棒性三个方面都取得了更好的结果，并且应对活动拖期风险的能力也更强。     

Development of a novel machine learning-based weighted modeling approach to incorporate Salmonella enterica heterogeneity on a genetic scale in a dose–response modeling framework

Estimating microbial dose–response is an important aspect of a food safety risk assessment. In recent years, there has been considerable interest to advance these models with potential incorporation of gene expression data. The aim of this study was to develop a novel machine learning model that considers the weights of expression of Salmonella genes that could be associated with illness, given exposure, in hosts. Here, an elastic net-based weighted Poisson regression method was proposed to identify Salmonella enterica genes that could be significantly associated with the illness response, irrespective of serovar. The best-fit elastic net model was obtained by 10-fold cross-validation. The best-fit elastic net model identified 33 gene expression–dose interaction terms that added to the predictability of the model. Of these, nine genes associated with Salmonella metabolism and virulence were found to be significant by the best-fit Poisson regression model (p < 0.05). This method could improve or redefine dose–response relationships for illness from relative proportions of significant genes from a microbial genetic dataset, which would help in refining endpoint and risk estimations.