Scenario Tree Modeling to Analyze the Probability of Classical Swine Fever Virus Introduction into Member States of the European Union

The introduction of classical swine fever virus (CSFV) into a country free of disease without vaccination may have huge consequences in terms of both disease spread and economic losses. More quantitative insight into the main factors determining the probability of CSFV introduction (PCSFV) is needed to optimally use resources for the prevention of CSFV introduction. For this purpose a spreadsheet model was constructed that calculates the annual PCSFV into member states of the European Union (EU). The scenario pathway approach was used as most probabilities in the model are very small. Probability distributions were used to take into account inherent variability of input parameters. The model contained pathways of CSFV introduction including the import of pigs and pork products, returning livestock trucks, and contacts with wild boar. All EU member states were included as possible sources of CSFV. Default results for the Netherlands showed a mean overall annual PCSFV of approximately 0.06, indicating that the Netherlands can expect CSFV introduction on average once every 18 years from the pathways and countries included in the model. Almost 65% of this probability could be attributed to the pathway of returning livestock trucks. The most likely sources of CSFV introduction were Germany, Belgium, and the United Kingdom. Although the calculated probabilities were rather low when compared with expert estimates and recent history, the most likely causes of CSFV introduction indicated by the model were considered to be realistic. It was therefore concluded that the model is a useful tool to structure and analyze information for decision making concerning the prevention of CSFV introduction.     

冲突与融合--梁实秋的自由主义思想论

梁实秋受中西文化影响,形成了一种带有古典倾向的自由主义思想,并在其政治理想、价值观念以及审美追求上留下深刻的烙印.从理性个人主义出发,他主张以节制达至自由、人性及审美的中和境界.这些赋予梁实秋自由主义思想以特有的风采,同时也带来无法解脱的内在矛盾和复杂性.     

Classical sociology and cosmopolitanism: a critical defence of the social

It is frequently argued that classical sociology, if not sociology as a whole, cannot provide any significant insight into globalization, primarily because its assumptions about the nation-state, national cultures and national societies are no longer relevant to a global world. Sociology cannot consequently contribute to a normative debate about cosmopolitanism, which invites us to consider loyalties and identities that reach beyond the nation-state. My argument considers four principal topics. First, I defend the classical legacy by arguing that classical sociology involved the study of 'the social' not national societies. This argument is illustration by reference to Emile Durkheim and Talcott Parsons. Secondly, Durkheim specifically developed the notion of a cosmopolitan sociology to challenge the nationalist assumptions of his day. Thirdly, I attempt to develop a critical version of Max Weber's verstehende soziologie to consider the conditions for critical recognition theory in sociology as a necessary precondition of cosmopolitanism. Finally, I consider the limitations of some contemporary versions of global sociology in the example of 'flexible citizenship' to provide an empirical case study of the limitations of globalization processes and 'sociology beyond society'. While many institutions have become global, some cannot make this transition. Hence, we should consider the limitations on as well as the opportunities for cosmopolitan sociology.     

吴地剑舞考

作为吴地文化的重要载体之一,剑舞具有其独特的中国传统文化特色。论述了吴文化背景推动下吴地剑舞的产生过程及其与吴文化的历史关联,阐述了剑舞在平稳发展期、鼎盛时期、多元融合期以及当代发展时期的不同状态,详细论述了剑舞在唐代的表演形式和表演风格,总结了剑舞的文化特色和发展规律。     

An Investigation of Agreement Between the Item Difficulty Coefficient Calculated in Accordance With Classical Test Theory and Item Response Theory With Bland–Altman Method

The purpose of this study is to investigate agreement between item difficulty coefficients calculated relying on classical test theory and item response theory with Bland–Altman method. According to results, although there is a high correlation between Pj and b coefficient estimated with HGLM (hierarchical generalized linear model), 1P, and 3P models, it can be said that there is no agreement between two methods and cannot be used interchangeably. It is observed that the confidence limit is wide according to Bland–Altman graphics. Therefore, it can be said that there is no agreement between item difficulty values obtained from two methods. Bland–Altman method which is used in clinical studies mostly is suggested to be used in the comparison of methods used especially in the evaluation of student performance in education, in agreement studies among specialist considerations especially in terms of providing additional information to the studies in which correlation coefficient is calculated.     

Probabilistic Modeling—From Physics to Computing Science

It is important in computing science to estimate the number of data blocks needed to answer a query. Three different answers to this problem emerged respectively in 1975, 1977, and 1982. This article investigates the basic differences of the three models and observes that the same differences were shared a long time ago by the physicists who used different models for the behavior of elementary particles to obtain the Maxwell-Boltzmann statistics, the Bose-Einstein statistics, and the Fermi-Dirac statistics.     

作为一种哲学实践的“解释学”--论列奥·施特劳斯的解释方法

施特劳斯并没有一套普遍的解释学理论，但有细致精巧的解释方法。这种方法预设了哲学的可能性，也就是作为永恒根本问题的整全的存在。经典文本是对整全的模仿，对文本的解释就是一个通往整全的起点，解释的过程就是在与被解释者交往对话的过程中追问这个根本的问题，而其最终目的则是解释者与被解释者共同向整全开放。因此施特劳斯的解释方法就是一种哲学实践，解释并非仅仅是达到理解的目的的一种手段，解释的过程本身就具有价值，因为解释的过程就是哲学化的过程。像施特劳斯那样读书，在这个意义上就可以被看成是在践行哲人的生活方式。     

无所归依的人生悲凉——《古诗十九首》感伤内涵的文化思索

《古诗十九首》的感伤内涵,表面上看来是关于相思离别、游子望乡、生命苦短、世态炎凉等日常生活中悲苦的感叹,实际上却蕴藏了更为深沉的伤痛,是一代文人处在社会大裂变时无所寄托的精神孤独、无所追求的文化哀伤、无所归依的人生悲凉。     

简论宋季遗民词对清代三大词派的影响

宋季遗民词将艺术手法与思想内涵完美结合,在唐宋词史上涂下浓墨重彩一笔,对清代词学亦产生重要影响。清代词坛三大主要流派即阳羡词派、浙西词派、常州词派,他们不论是理论批评上还是艺术创作上都受到过宋季遗民词的影响,但其侧重点却各不相同。清代三大词派在对宋季遗民词的接受过程中,或是注重作品的思想内容,或是倾向艺术手法的借鉴,或是推扬其思想理论,各取所需,借石攻玉,宋季遗民词对清代词学的发展建构起到了重要的作用。     

近代文言教育边缘化的开端：白话文如何进入国民学校

1920年初,在政府和新文化派精英的共同“运动”下,北京政府教育部终将国民学校“国文”改为“国语”。这标志着白话文以“国语”的合法身份进入知识生产体系,同时亦是文言教育传统的衰落和边缘化的开始。