A hybrid ARIMA and support vector machines model in stock price forecasting

Traditionally, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model has been one of the most widely used linear models in time series forecasting. However, the ARIMA model cannot easily capture the nonlinear patterns. Support vector machines (SVMs), a novel neural network technique, have been successfully applied in solving nonlinear regression estimation problems. Therefore, this investigation proposes a hybrid methodology that exploits the unique strength of the ARIMA model and the SVMs model in forecasting stock prices problems. Real data sets of stock prices were used to examine the forecasting accuracy of the proposed model. The results of computational tests are very promising.     

Optimization Model and Algorithm for Crew Management During Airline Irregular Operations

Airline irregular operations have long been a realm where human experience and judgement are the most important tools to utilize. Crew management during irregular operations is usually the bottleneck of the whole system-recovering process due to complicated crew schedules and restrictive crew legalities as well as the size and scope of the hub-and-spoke networks adopted by major carriers. A system-wide multi-commodity integer network flow model and a heuristic search algorithm for the above purpose are presented and discussed in this paper. The computational experiences show that the algorithm is efficient enough to solve problems of realistic size and also has the flexibility to accommodate practical business requirements.     

On the effectiveness of cognitive feedback from an interface agent

The objective of this study was to determine the impact of task information (TI) provided by an interface agent during the idea evaluation and integration step of the problem formulation stage of the problem solving process. The effectiveness assessment was based on solving diagnostic decision problems in the domain of complex industrial machinery. Ten domain experts participated in this study. Decision support was provided by a case-based reasoning system. Findings suggest that TI provided by the interface agent had no effect on the decision maker's performance, nor on the associated cognitive effort. However, a verbal protocol analysis revealed that the ten subjects used the interface agent to verify their decision processes. The results and their implications are discussed with respect to current findings in the area of decision support systems.     

一种新的高分辨定位去噪方法

高分辨定位技术在近几年得到人们的广泛注意,在这方面的研究工作相当活跃。本文提出一种新的多目标阵列接收信号协方差矩阵的去噪方法,并对结果进行了计算机模拟。     

社会网络对民间金融风险的作用——基于社会网络结构的理论与实证分析

社会网络对民间金融风险的影响已被广泛认可,但是,究竟什么样的网络结构有抑制风险的作用,什么样的网络结构有扩增风险的作用？以资金互助会为例,将互助会涉及的社会网络按结构特征分为单个会的会内网络和多个会的会间网络,研究可知：（1）越紧密的会内网络结构以及越大的网络规模越有利于民间金融风险的控制。（2）跨会网络具有抑制和扩增风险两种作用,它是协同监督和惩罚机制生效的基础,因而对风险具有控制作用,但这种作用只在中介成员为会首时才显著;同时,它也构成了风险传播的通道,导致资金被分散到多个会中,因而提升了系统性风险。     

Residential Instability,Family Support,and Parent–Child Relationships Among Ethnically Diverse Urban Families

From a social disorganization standpoint, neighborhood residential instability potentially brings negative consequences to parent–child relationship qualities, but family social support and racial/ethnic identity may modify this association. Using data (n = 3,116) from the Project on Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods, this study examines associations between neighborhood residential instability and parent–child warmth and conflict, whether family social support moderates associations between residential instability and parent–child relationships, and variation by race/ethnicity. Multilevel models reveal that residential instability undermines parent–child relationship qualities, particularly for non‐White individuals. Family support is a protective factor for families in less stable neighborhoods and specifically buffers the association between neighborhood residential instability and reduced parent–child warmth. Among Hispanics, family support mitigates the association between residential instability and heightened parent–child conflict. Findings highlight residential instability as a detriment to parent–child relationships; families in unstable neighborhoods may benefit from family social support.     

“社会养老”是否淡化了“子女责任”观念？--来自中国农村居民的经验证据

参保行为与养老观念存在双向因果关系，倾向于子女养老的居民参加养老保险的概率较低，而参加养老保险也改变着居民的养老观念。通过联立方程模型以及工具变量控制内生性后，得出了养老保险淡化“子女养老”观念的净效应，进而指出养老保险制度不仅挤出了子女对老人的经济支持，同时也弱化了人们的家庭养老观念。国家大力推行的养老保障体系在行为与观念两个层面上挤出了家庭养老，以国家制度化养老保障体系为主体的社会养老模式对家庭养老模式具有替代性。在养老模式的变迁中要综合考虑各主体的功能与责任，联合各界力量共同承担社会养老责任。     

Problem‐ and solution‐focused characteristics of parenting support, 3 years after implementation of the solution‐focused approach: A qualitative content analysis

In recent years, solution‐focused parenting support has been developed and implemented as a promising brief and strength‐based approach. Given the fundamental differences between solution‐focused and the historically more common problem‐focused parenting support and the complexity of transforming professional practice, an actual shift towards solution‐focused parenting support can be expected to be limited up to now. However, because research into the specific communication characteristics of professional parenting support is currently lacking, no conclusion can be drawn at present. Therefore, this study aims to explore the current problem‐ and solution‐focused characteristics of parenting support in the Dutch youth healthcare (YH). In total, 15 support sessions performed by 10 public health nurses were audio recorded and transcribed verbatim. A detailed qualitative content analysis of professional communication was conducted to identify problem‐ and solution‐focused factual, expressive, relational and appealing aspects of parenting support. Problem‐focused characteristics dominated all sessions of parenting support. This study is the first to thoroughly analyse the problem‐focused and solution‐focused communication characteristics of professional parenting support using a qualitative content analysis. Parenting support practice in the Dutch YH did not shift substantially to a solution‐focused approach. More effort is required to stimulate and facilitate this professional transformation.     

Early Pregnancy Assessment Services in Australia: What psychosocial support is available? A qualitative study

ProblemWomen commonly experience emotional distress following miscarriage but do not receive the support they need from healthcare providers.BackgroundMiscarriage can result in psychological morbidity; however, appropriate support at the time of a miscarriage can lead to better psychological outcomes. Early Pregnancy Assessment Services (EPASs) are dedicated outpatient services considered the “gold standard” for miscarriage care. Little is known about the psychosocial support EPASs provide in Australia.AimsThe aim of this study was to explore the provision of psychosocial support in Australian EPASs.MethodsSemi-structured interviews were conducted with 29 purposively sampled key-informants from 13 EPASs. Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed, and thematically analysed.FindingsConsiderable variation was found in how EPASs functioned and their provision of psychosocial support. Many services were co-located with antenatal services, run by doctors with limited experience and most did not offer any psychosocial training to staff specific to EPAS. Referrals for additional support were generally not offered for first trimester miscarriages, and follow-up typically focused on physical management rather than emotional wellbeing. All EPAS staff demonstrated a strong commitment to providing best possible care to women within their own clinical setting and acknowledged the need for improved psychosocial support.ConclusionThis study provides the first exploration of Australian EPASs’ provision of psychosocial support. It has shown that while health care professionals working in EPASs are dedicated to providing the best possible care to women within their clinical setting, psychosocial support is very limited and could be improved.     

论鲜卑段部的源流和兴衰

段部出于东部鲜卑,其远祖为先秦时期的屠何,早期活动于徒河地区,北朝时段部与慕容部、乌桓又同称为徒何。段部的兴衰与晋末十六国时期的政局变化有着密切关系,段部与司马越、王浚结援,在司马越当政之时而走向强盛,随着司马越集团的败亡及临敌石赵、慕容燕的崛起而逐渐走向衰亡。同时,段部的兴衰也对晋末十六国政局产生了很大影响。