浅谈约旦穆斯林兄弟会与政府的关系

长期以来，约旦穆斯林兄弟会与政府保持着良好的合作关系。穆斯林兄弟会不仅未受政府的压制，反而处于上升的态势。这有别于埃及和其他国家穆斯林兄弟会与政府之间纷繁多变的关系，这种合作关系在整个中东地区的伊斯兰运动中都是罕见的。鉴于此，本文拟就约旦穆兄会与政府的关系作一论述。     

The debt trap: A two-compartment train wreck… and how to avoid it

We explore sustainable paths out of a debt trap with a highly stylized two-sector differential equations model for the stocks of money in Government and Society. The model fits the data for the U.S. between 1981 and 2012 with a coefficient of correlation of 0.996. The solutions provide detailed “escape conditions” from the debt trap. A primary surplus is required. Then a government can escape its debt trap either through sustained annual monetary outflows from society to the government (taxation) but with a low initial growth rate, or through annual monetary inflows into both sectors (stimulus) with higher initial growth rate. We illustrate the use of our model with simulations which show how five indebted countries can escape their debt trap in 30 (or 70) years.     

灵魂的投影内心的独白——谈美国诗人 E.E.肯明斯的几首诗

E.E.肯明斯是美国著名的先锋诗人。他的诗歌形式变异,语言分裂,在世界诗坛独树一帜。多年来,一些学者主要从他的语言和形式上探讨他的诗歌,认为他过分追求诗歌的形式,难免在主题上缺少应有的深刻度。但笔者认为,与其说肯明斯是用一种特立独行的方式与世界对话,倒不如说他标新立异的诗句正是他灵魂的投影,内心的独白。本文将依据文学批评的相关理论,探讨肯明斯诗歌的主题。     

中西网络政府及其行政权力运行之比较

建立网络政府、倡导网络政治是当代社会发展的一股潮流，西方发达国家已经先行一步。中国政府也在积极探索建立网络政府，推进行政权力网上公开透明运行的必由之路，并且取得了一系列重要成果。比较中西在网络政府建设中的不同举措，总结各自的经验教训对于我国网络政府的建设以及达成“权力在阳光下运行”的目标或许有所启迪。     

Global imbalances and household savings: The role of wealth

Many claim that fluctuations in U.S. private savings help to create and to sustain global imbalances because of their influence on the current account deficit. To test this claim, this paper investigates the determinants of aggregate household savings using a panel of 18 developed countries for the period 1980–2005. We weave two strands of literature: the first strand from consumer theory, considering specifically the ‘wealth effect’, the second strand from aggregate private savings theory. The original contribution of this paper derives from the main explanatory variables of the household savings function: two measures of household wealth, the first a financial variable and the second a variable for tangible/housing stock. The salience of these variables has not been tested before. The model is then enriched with variables taken from the private savings literature. To find the best technique to estimate the long run savings function, unit root and cointegration tests are carried out, from which evidence of a cointegrating relationship is found. The group means FMOLS is used to estimate the model. The empirical evidence suggests effects consistent with theory: an increase in wealth negatively affects household savings. Furthermore, when important explanatory variables, such as government savings and population dependency ratios, are included in the model, tangible wealth becomes the only kind of wealth to (weakly and negatively) influence household savings in developed countries. In the U.S. however, wealth does not seem to affect household savings negatively, it seems instead that government savings and population changes better explain the decline of savings during the past two decades. This finding provides additional evidence on the issue of global imbalances, and suggests that the recent booms of the stock and the real estate markets should not be blamed for the decline in U.S. household and private savings.     

服务型政府视野中的公共服务分工

建设服务型政府要求强化政府的公共服务能力.公共服务分工是指政府在强化公共服务职能和财政责任的同时,还要充分发挥市场在配置资源和社会在整合资源方面的特有作用,发展公共服务规划者和生产者的专业优势.尽管公共服务分工有利于弥补政府直接生产的局限性,但也不可避免地存在交易成本,需要进行有效的合同治理.对于公共服务分工而言,选择能够节省交易成本和具备激励机制的制度安排至关重要.公共服务的分工还有助于防止政府、市场与社会组织之间的相互对抗,重建新的权利和责任体系,有效地促进社会和谐.     

从吉尔吉斯斯坦政变看政府合法性的构建

政府合法性既是民众对政府的一种心理认同，又是一种行为接受，如果政府不能有效地满足“被领导者”的要求，就会出现合法性危机。此次吉尔吉斯政变不仅有合利益性缺失、社会异质度高、政治精英失范等内部原因，更有美俄力量角逐等外部原因。所以，政府合法性要在增强政权有效性、“刻写一反刻写”的合法性求证和坚持本土化的民族发展模式中进行构建。