金融发展与经济波动的联系:一个文献综述

从金融发展视角研究经济波动属于一个前沿主题。本文归纳了金融发展与经济波动发生联系的理论机制,并对国内外经验文献进行了梳理。总的来看,理论研究与经验研究都未形成一致的结论,因此有关金融发展与经济波动联系的研究仍然是一个有待进一步探索的开放领域。     

中国式财政分权的宏观经济绩效——基于限制型VAR模型的经验分析

本文从中央政府与地方政府行为角度构建了中国式分权与宏观经济绩效之间的关联框架,指出中国式分权体制下的地方政府竞争行为构成了中国经济增长以及周期性过热的主导力量。由于中国不同省份的自然历史、地理位置以及发展政策差异极大,即使是同样的分权程度也可能产生不同的经济绩效与激励效果,这也就使得面板数据模型回归结论对其设定形式非常敏感。因此,本文采用受限VAR模型来实证分析中国式财政分权对于经济增长率和通货膨胀率的作用效应,结论证实了本文的理论预期。     

德国对外国投资者并购德国公司的安全审查制度及其法律对策

通过对《德国对外经济法》《德国对外经济条例》改革的介绍及其与欧盟法、《关贸总协定》的比较,认为应对这两个德国法中的"公共安全和国家秩序"进行更加准确的界定,并分析了这次改革对我国企业在德国以及欧盟范围内并购德国企业所产生的法律风险,进而提出事先和事后的应对策略。     

马克思经济价值批判解析

马克思的价值批判蕴涵着他对现代社会中人之生存的物化和异化状态的反思和批判,在马克思的《资本论》手稿中,他着重分析了交换价值带有资本主义社会历史特征的特殊性,指出交换价值形式是人的物化存在形式。在这种特殊历史条件下的货币(交换价值)制度,实质上反映了社会异化状态下的自由与平等的丧失。而作为价值总体的资本,反映的是资本与劳动之间以交换为形式产生的对立,而这种阶级对立的解决将是人的自由全面发展的社会条件之一。     

Costs of promoting cancer screening: Evidence from CDC’s Colorectal Cancer Control Program (CRCCP)

The Colorectal Cancer Control Program (CRCCP) provided funding to 29 grantees to increase colorectal cancer screening. We describe the screening promotion costs of CRCCP grantees to evaluate the extent to which the program model resulted in the use of funding to support interventions recommended by the Guide to Community Preventive Services (Community Guide). We analyzed expenditures for screening promotion for the first three years of the CRCCP to assess cost per promotion strategy, and estimated the cost per person screened at the state level based on various projected increases in screening rates. All grantees engaged in small media activities and more than 90% used either client reminders, provider assessment and feedback, or patient navigation. Based on all expenditures, projected cost per eligible person screened for a 1%, 5%, and 10% increase in state-level screening proportions are $172, $34, and $17, respectively. CRCCP grantees expended the majority of their funding on Community Guide recommended screening promotion strategies but about a third was spent on other interventions. Based on this finding, future CRC programs should be provided with targeted education and information on evidence-based strategies, rather than broad based recommendations, to ensure that program funds are expended mainly on evidence-based interventions.     

The Brazilian organic food sector: Prospects and constraints of facilitating the inclusion of smallholders

The Brazilian organic food sector has experienced important growth during the last two decades. Brazilian smallholders, however, are facing huge challenges to enter and benefit from this growth in a sustainable way. Combining the lens of New Institutional Economics and socio-anthropology, we analyze six experiences of Brazilian smallholders who converted to organics in the 1990s’. Three different food systems are featured in this analysis: an alternative food system, which is strongly interwoven with the Brazilian Agro-ecological movement and two commercial food procurement systems oriented towards domestic and an export markets driven mainly by supermarket chains. The analytical focus was on 1) the governance of these food systems, 2) the constraints farmers are facing within these food systems and, 3) the benefits that they can expect from market inclusion. We highlighted the roles that NGOs, Faith-based organizations and public-related agencies play in supporting the inclusion of smallholders into all three food systems. We confirmed the arguments in support of pursuing the agro-ecological development based model in Brazil, but underlined that there is a critical lack of support for farmers included in the commercial market-oriented food systems. Such a lack is even more critical as the food systems driven by expanding supermarket chains are characterized by strong asymmetric power relations at the expense of smallholders. Considering the reluctance of NGOs and Faith-based organizations to support these farmers, we call for efforts to be made to provide a policy framework to enable public-related entities to secure sustainable inclusion into these systems and exit strategies for those experiencing exclusion from these highly competitive food systems.     

An integrated model based on statistical process control and maintenance for two-stage dependent processes

The close relationship between quality and maintenance of manufacturing systems has contributed to the development of integrated models which use the concept of statistical process control (SPC) and maintenance. This article demonstrates the integration of the Shewhart individual-residual (Z_X ? Z_e) joint control chart and maintenance for two-stage dependent processes by jointly optimizing their policies to minimize the expected total costs associated with quality, maintenance and inspection. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed model, two stand-alone models—a maintenance model and an SPC model—are proposed. Then a numerical example is given to illustrate the application of the proposed integrated model. The results show that the integrated model outperforms the two stand-alone models with regard to the expected cost per unit time. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to develop insights into time parameters and cost parameters that influence the integration efforts.     

Testing hypotheses for the growth curve model when the data are incomplete

Kleinbaum (1973) developed a generalized growth curve model for analyzing incomplete longitudinal data. In this paper the small sample properties of several related test statistics are investigated via Monte Carlo techniques. The covariance matrix is estimated by each of three non-iterative methods. The null and non-null distributions of these test statistics are examined.     

高等教育人口规模对经济增长的影响：地区异质性检验

近年来我国高等教育人口规模不断扩张，对经济社会产生了积极的影响。本文通过建立数理模型阐释了高等教育人口扩张对经济增长的影响机理，并使用1995年到2013年的省级面板数据考察了我国高等教育人口扩张对经济增长的作用，以及这一作用在不同地区的异质性。固定效应和随机效应模型表明，我国高等教育人口扩张促进了地区经济增长，且中西部地区的促进作用要大于东部地区。为了克服由反向因果引起的内生性偏误，本文使用2SLS方法进行了相应处理，结果依旧稳健。本文的研究对于制定高等教育发展的相关政策具有一定的参考意义。     

Gap and Integration - Volunteer Service for Western China and College Students＇ Growth

大学生志愿服务西部计划的目的之一是大学生通过奉献社会来实：观个人成长。他们能否真正地成为当地社会中的一员，是实现这一目的的关键。在异文化环境之中，想短时间内成为其中一员并非易事，因为有一道浅浅的沟壑存在于青年文化与当地文化、当地人与外来人、青年人与长辈之间。为实现志愿服务效果的最大化，西部志愿者应该积极主动地融入当地社会．当地社会应对他们抱持开放的态度，他们与当地长辈之间应该展开对话，他们更应该战胜和超越自我。