中国流通A股市场投资者实现回报率研究

现实中的股票市场不可能完全符合资本市场有效性假设,因而把股票成交价格看作是股票的市场价值,并据此计算股票投资回报率的传统做法存在着明显的弊端。投资者实际实现的回报率对现实股票市场,特别是规范程度很低的我国股票市场的研究具有重要意义。本文提出了无需完全有效市场假设的现金概念及以此为基础的投资者实现回报率概念,并给出了现有条件下的投资者回报率计算公式和沪深两市的计算结果。     

Migrant and asylum-seeker children returned to Kosovo and Albania: predictive factors for social–emotional wellbeing after return

The return of rejected asylum seekers has a high priority on the national agendas of European States. In order to make well-informed asylum decisions involving children, knowledge of how asylum-seeker children fare after their return to their countries of origin is needed. This study aims to gain knowledge about the child-rearing environment and the social–emotional wellbeing of migrant children who have returned to Kosovo and Albania after a stay in a European host country. Based on a sample of 106 returned families, the study investigated the predictive factors for children’s social–emotional wellbeing using regression analyses. The findings show that procedural characteristics and ethnicity predict wellbeing, mediated through the quality of the child-rearing environment. The most vulnerable children did not have a stable resident status in the host country, belonged to a minority ethnic group and were older adolescents. The findings indicate that the wellbeing of returned children is not only dependent on conditions after repatriation, but also on the conditions which the families left in the host country. To enable sustainable return in a child’s best interests, the needs of vulnerable families and children should be thoroughly assessed prior to return, and reintegration support should be tailored to their situation.     

Heteroscedasticity-robust estimation of autocorrelation

This paper proposes estimators of the first-order autocorrelation that are based on suitably transformed ratios of successive observations. The new estimators are given by simple functions of the observations. Numerical optimization is not required. Simulations show that they are highly robust against extreme values and clusters of high volatility and are therefore particularly useful for the estimation of serial correlation in return series. Besides, the results of the simulation study also call into question the common practice of correcting the small-sample bias of conventional estimators.     

The mixture of left–right truncated normal distributions

This paper introduces the mixture of left–right truncated normal distributions, from the spreads between bid and ask prices, as a statistical model for handle non-normality of asset price returns. It has been proved that there is only one maximum for the likelihood function of the new model.     

ALGORITHMS FOR RETURN PROBABILITIES FOR STOCHASTIC FLUID FLOWS

Abstract

We consider several known algorithms and introduce some new algorithms that can be used to calculate the probability of return to the initial level in the Markov stochastic fluid flow model. We give the physical interpretations of these algorithms within the fluid flow environment. The rates of convergence are explained in terms of the physical properties of the fluid flow processes. We compare these algorithms with respect to the number of iterations required and their complexity. The performance of the algorithms depends on the nature of the process considered in the analysis. We illustrate this with examples and give appropriate recommendations.     

Reply

Beginning with the 1990 Census and the January 1992 Current Population Survey (CPS), the Bureau of the Census changed the emphasis of its educational-attainment question from years of education to degree receipt. Using a matched sample from the 1991 and 1992 March CPS, this article addresses how to reconcile the old and new questions. The effects of those methods on the estimated return(s) to education are then examined. Both the estimated linear return and the estimated college–high-school wage differential are slightly larger using information from the new question.     

“体道”的必要性、原理及方法——《老子》道篇首章新解

文章在吸取学术界已取得的相关学术成果的基础上,从探讨《老子》道篇首章首二句该怎样断句入手,对该章做了异于常见的新解,认为本章主要内容是论述＂体道＂的必要性、原理及方法的。文章对＂常道＂与＂常名＂、＂常无欲＂与＂常有欲＂等概念、术语做了深入细致的分析,阐述了潜藏于其中而至今尚鲜为人知的意义。     

民间视阈下的《红高粱》与《还乡》的女性叙事

莫言和哈代都是民间文化的表述者,他们的小说都展现了民间文化的生命力,在此文化视域下塑造了诸多女性形象,其中以《红高粱》中的凤莲和《还乡》中的游苔莎最为典型。在两人的女性叙事中,既有相同又有差异：首先,他们都描述了女性的本能欲望,但对欲望的态度不同;其次,都描述了女性的反叛,但反叛的基点不同;最后,从两个作家对女性的理想化书写中,深层揭示差异性背后蕴涵的文化意义。     

美国CRB指数波动对我国期货市场收益率的影响研究

随着我国期货市场的迅速发展,商品期货逐步显示出金融属性。本文运用自回归分布滞后模型结合GARCH族模型对CRB指数波动与我国上海期货交易所沪铜、沪铝、沪锌、天然橡胶、燃料油期货价格波动之间的动态关系展开研究,以考察宏观经济运行对我国期货市场的影响。     

论康德的永久和平思想及其意义

康德的"永久和平"思想是贯穿整个康德哲学及其发展历程的一个重要主题,也是判断和衡量人类的道德进步和现世幸福的最高尺度。文章从三个方面分析了"永久和平"这一思想的理论内涵,并肯定了这一思想的积极意义。