双斜率因子动态Nelson-Siegel利率期限结构模型及其应用

利率期限结构是利率产品定价的基础和核心,对利率市场化具有重要意义。根据我国债券市场的特点,本文对动态Nelson-Siegel模型进行扩展,引入第二个斜率因子,构造双斜率因子动态利率期限结构模型,增强收益率曲线近端的静态拟合和动态预测能力。本文提出的模型嵌套了动态Nelson-Siegel模型,是对动态Nelson-Siegel模型的实质性推广,极大似然比检验证明了第二个斜率因子引入的必要性。本文以状态空间模型的卡尔曼滤波构造样本似然函数,采用双折线优化算法计算模型参数的极大似然估计。基于我国银行间市场债券交易收益率数据的实证分析表明,双斜率因子模型能够显著改善动态Nelson-Siegel模型对收益率曲线近端的拟合能力,同时对短期预测能力也有改善。此外,第二个斜率因子反映出宏观经济活动对利率期限结构的滞后影响,扩展后的模型能捕捉我国利率期限结构更多的动态变化特征,给相关主体提供更具价值的参考信息。     

中国商品期货回报与现货价格变化测度研究——基于便利收益模型的视角

本文基于便利收益模型(CYM)的视角推导出商品期限结构、期货回报并对期货回报进行分解。选取我国三个商品期货交易所相关数据作为样本,对我国商品期货回报与现货价格变化进行测度研究。研究发现,在样本期内,商品期货回报和现货价格变化之间不存在密切关系;以展期收益或预期现货价格变化为条件的商品风险溢价具有时变性;平均展期收益反映了现货价格变化对风险溢价的预期偏离;期货期限结构、便利收益和展期收益准确地预测了现货价格变化。上述研究结果为我国商品期货回报与现货价格变化的测度和管理以及商品期货投资决策设计提供了一些有帮助的理论借鉴和操作性较强的方法选择。     

Employers' attitudes towards long‐term unemployed people and the role of activation in Switzerland

Over the last few years, most OECD countries have extended their activation policy to new groups of non‐working people, including the long‐term unemployed (LTU). However, it is widely known that employers tend to regard LTU people as potentially problematic persons. This is likely to constitute a major obstacle for long‐term unemployed jobseekers. On the basis of a survey among employers in a Swiss canton (N = 722), this article aims to shed light on the perception employers have of the long‐term unemployed and whether this may matter for their recruitment practices. It also asks what, from the employer point of view, may facilitate access to employment for an LTU person. A key finding is that large companies have a worse image of the long‐term unemployed and are less likely to hire them. Furthermore, independent of company size, a test period or the recommendation of a trustworthy person is seen as the factors most likely to facilitate access to jobs for LTU people.     

大学校长该任多久 --对哈佛大学校长任期的考察及思考

通过对哈佛大学校长任期的考察,可以看出,首先要办成一所优秀的大学,校长任期制至关重要,其次,让年富力强,有开创精神的人走上大学校长的领导岗位,是大学校长长期任职的保证.     

Assessment of supplier performance based on product-development strategy by applying multi-granularity linguistic term sets

Measuring supplier performance possesses the properties of multi-dimension and multi-scale, it increases the complexity of the aggregation and assessment process. A focal company must develop an effective procedure for overcoming the complexity of performance measurement. Furthermore, the assessment of supplier performance must conform to the product-developed strategy of the focal company. This study is a further research deeper into the concept already introduced in Chang et al. [1] [Applying fuzzy linguistic quantifier to select supply chain partners at different phases of product life cycle. International Journal of Production Economics 2006; 100(2):348–59]; using multi-granularity linguistic variable and numerical ration scale to represent the overall supply performance. By unifying the derived information, the measurement complexity could be resolved. The fuzzy preference was constructed to adjust the consistent direction and transform information into fuzzy relationship. Finally, fuzzy linguistic quantifier guided ordered weighted aggregation (FLQG-OWA) operator with maximal entropy was computed and aggregated with all indicators to meet the current policy of the focal company.     

从中西称谓语看其文化内涵

在汉语和西方语言中,称谓语的使用有极大的不同。在亲属称谓方面,汉语比西语更加细化,不但讲究礼数,区分谦辞和敬辞,还区分直旁系远近亲等。在社会称谓方面,汉语的表达方式也更加丰富。造成这种差异的原因主要可以归结为中西不同的历史、观念和宗教信仰。只有掌握其文化内涵,才能正确理解和使用两种语言中的称谓语,从而顺利完成跨文化交际。     

西昌黄联关镇客话的亲属称谓

本文运用田野调查的方法,系统收集整理了四川省西昌市黄联客家方言岛的亲属称谓词。试从血亲、姻亲和其他关系三个方面来对黄联客家话亲属称谓词做一个系统的描写分析,并对其中部分称谓做了语音上的分析或传统文化含义的阐释。     

后殖民主义视角解读《强者的力量》中印第安人众生相

美国文学作品中的印第安人具有一定的模式特征:愚昧、凶残和难以逃脱的厄运。杰克.伦敦在短篇小说《强者的力量》中塑造了形形色色的印第安形象,他们的姓名奇特、相貌丑陋、行为粗野,长期处于落后和边缘化的状态,部落之间的纷争和内部的争斗导致了他们必然灭亡的悲剧命运。印第安人模式化形象的塑造和悲惨的结局是殖民主义话语的重要组成部分,他们的形象符合霸权文化和白人殖民者的双重要求,虚假的印第安形象使殖民主义者的掠夺和杀戮合法化。     

西印度所见舍卫城大神变佛教造像十例

古印度笈多时期普遍流行一种取材于“舍卫城大神变”的佛教造像,描绘佛陀在舍卫城降服外道六师,包括三个主要情节：芒果树奇迹、水火双神变、大神变。造像通常舍弃了叙事性,转而倾向于礼拜性,形成了以佛陀为主尊集结化佛天众的宏大场景,作为程式化的造像遍布于西印度诸石窟。就西印度石窟所见,这类造像有繁简不同的造像图像,但均以“并蒂莲花”、“千佛化现”和“双龙擎莲”为图像特征,并影响了耆那教造像和印度教造像,也是古印度后期密教造像的图式渊源之一。“舍卫城大神变”系列造像对中国佛教美术的影响,尚没有得到充分的重视。     

Methods of, and Reasons for, Emotional Expression and Control in Children with Internalizing, Externalizing, and Somatic Problems in Urban India

Although cross-cultural research concerning children's emotions is growing, few studies have examined emotion dysregulation in culturally diverse populations. This study compared 6- to 8-year-old children's reported methods of expressing and controlling anger, sadness, and physical pain, and their justifications for doing so across four groups in urban India: those with internalizing problems (N = 31), externalizing problems (N = 32), somatic complaints (N = 25), and an asymptomatic control group (N = 32). Results revealed that in comparison to physical pain, Indian children were less likely to report expressing anger and sadness through direct facial/verbal means. Control-group children reported expressing anger and sadness through indirect verbal cues more so than pain, whereas the internalizing and externalizing groups considered their expressions of anger and sadness uncontrollable and reported crying and utilizing aggressive behaviors, respectively, more than the control group. The somatic complaints group considered emotions trivial and reported withdrawing more than the control group.