中国宏观经济2011年形势走向分析

中国经济结构调整的外部环境正在发生变化,因此必须寄希望于通过扩大人均收入,提高消费能力,使中国市场逐步走向世界的前列。但在目前消费和出口双重疲软的情况下,中国经济仍然需要靠投资拉动增长。2011年下半年经济下行风险不是很大,物价上涨是经济增长最主要障碍,预计货币政策偏紧。     

外商在华直接投资区位选择影响因素实证分析

当前,外商直接投资在我国存在着明显的地区分布失衡问题,为此重点研究吸引外资选择投资区位的决定性因素。运用回归模型,对我国各省区2009年的截面数据进行了实证分析,结果表明:市场规模、工资水平、基础设施是吸引外商直接投资的主要因素,而劳动力素质在外商直接投资区位选择中的影响效果较小。这些因素对我国有效吸引外商直接投资具有重大启示。     

基于改进粒子群算法的神经网络优化证券投资组合方法

采用人工神经网络对证券投资进行预测与分析的研究过程中,提高神经网络各个节点参数的优化能力是极其关键的。传统的神经网络存在学习速度慢、易陷入局部极小值、预测结果精度较低等缺点,一种玫进型粒子群（Improved Particle Swann Optimizer,IPSO）算法．可以优化BP（Back Propagation）神经网络．并将优化后的BP神经网络应用于优化证券投资组合中。实验结果表明：该研究方法能够在预测精度和稳定性方面明显优于传统的PSO—BP神经网络优化证券投资组合方法。     

Capacity Investment and Product Line Decisions of a Multiproduct Leader and a Focus Strategy Entrant

In this article, I investigate the capacity investment cost conditions where a multiproduct market leader may respond to a focus strategy entrant by using different strategies such as changing the product mix, production volumes, quality levels, and/or by investing in more capacity. The products offered in the market are quality differentiated and customers are heterogeneous in their willingness to pay for quality. The capacity investment costs of the two firms (i.e., the leader and the entrant) may also be different. The classical Stackelberg model predicts that an incumbent does not change its position in response to entry. However, when heterogeneous customer base, product differentiation, and capacity costs are taken into consideration, I find that the leader with a low capacity cost may choose to expand its product line and increase its production. The leader with low capacity cost may introduce a product that it was holding back when the entrant has to bear the high‐capacity cost and cannibalization threat is relatively small. Nevertheless, the extent of production volume strategies reduces as the capacity cost increases for the leader. I also find that when the leader has the power to set the industry standards by deciding the quality levels, as a response to a high‐quality focused entrant, the leader increases both levels of quality and production of the low‐quality product. Moreover, when the capacity investment cost is high for both the entrant and the leader, I find that market prices may increase with entry.     

Transaction‐Specific Investments,Relational Norms,and ERP Customer Satisfaction: A Mediation Analysis*

Integrating the perspectives of transaction cost economics, the resource‐based view, and resource dependency theory, this study analyzes the institutional settings of enterprise resource planning (ERP) implementations in China. Specifically, it examines how bilateral transaction‐specific investments (TSIs) and relational governance mechanisms influence customer satisfaction with ERP implementations. The model is empirically tested using data from on‐site interviews with 208 ERP customers in China. The results demonstrate that the effects of vendors’ and customers’ TSIs on customer satisfaction are facilitated by multiple‐stage micromediational chains. The influence of TSIs on customer satisfaction is mediated by relational norms, and the impact of relational norms on customer satisfaction is bridged by perceived service quality and customer trust. Furthermore, the influence of vendors’ TSIs is stronger than the influence of customers’ TSIs. The findings contribute to business research and practice by providing valuable insights into how ERP vendors and customers should strategize TSIs to enhance relationship performance.     

环境容量约束下旅游税收优惠政策的经济学分析

旅游税收优惠政策为旅游业的发展引进资金创造了良好的条件。当考虑景区的旅游环境容量约束时,税收优惠政策可能会导致旅游投资激励不足或过度激励。向旅游消费者征收生态税或消费税,鼓励旅游企业改善投资结构是旅游税收政策改进的重要方向。     

公共项目管理研究内容框架及其走向分析

公共项目投资额大、投资回收期长,对国家和地区的经济发展和社会环境产生了显著影响。关于公共项目研究,嘲内外研究文献大都集中在公共项目投资、合作、决策到项目评价再到项目管理,其中涉及许多问题,与许多学科交叉应用,并且能够也需要运用多种方法进行分析与研究,从这三方面着手归纳总结了公共项目的研究基础、方法及研究内容,并指明了公共项目领域的研究方向。     

“第三条道路”的社会福利主张对我国构建和谐社会的重要启示

在构建和谐社会的过程中,应当吸收、借鉴国内外推行社会福利方面政策的经验。作为引起了20世纪80年代以来世界各国社会福利领域发生重大变化的“第三条道路”强调“无责任即无权利”的新原则,提出了积极的福利政策,主张建设社会投资型国家。其中注重人力资本投资、积极的福利政策和发展公民社会对我国构建社会主义和谐社会提供了重要启示。     

农业投资与云南农业的发展

农业投资对农业发展具有重要的影响.云南的农业投资就总体而言,都表现为投资不足.占据主导地位的政府投资之所以不足,有着多方面的原因,基于此,本文提出了一些改进建议或者说对策.     

少数民族地区教育投入的统计研究

在现有条件下,以应用经济统计学和教育经济学为指导,对少数民族相对集中一些典型地区的教育投入与效益作可行性分析,为学校和政府的教育经费投入提供合理化建议和可操作的方法,为我国同类型、同层次民族地区提供教育经费统计和分析模型,具有十分重要的意义.完成这一任务,需要把握一系列切实可行的方法和步骤,对有代表性的方面作出突破.