20世纪金宋关系史论著目录--建国前

据不完全统计，1911至1949年间共出版、发表涉及金宋关系史著作、论文205余部、篇，其中著作49部，论文156余篇。目录分为著作、史料与文献、金宋和战、经济交流、人物、其他6类。     

南海地缘形势与中国政府对南海权益的维护——以20世纪六七十年代南海争端为考察中心

20世纪六七十年代,美、前苏联出于争夺世界霸权的需要,对南海争端采取了不同的政策,南海地区＂边缘地带＂特性进一步凸显。在此背景下,菲律宾、越南和马来西亚等国强占南海岛礁、瓜分海域、掠夺资源。在维权斗争中,中国政府不断地进行南海诸岛主权宣示,抗议周边国家对中国海洋国土主权的践踏,收复被占西沙岛礁,并采取切实措施加强海疆国防建设。     

外国新闻史教材存在问题及对策分析

外国新闻史是新闻传播类专业本科阶段的必修课,师生共同关心教材的选用。综观目前正规出版的教材,问题不容忽视,包括翻译不规范、基本史料表述不一、史观带有浓厚的意识形态色彩等。这些问题给学生带来困惑,给教学带来困难。解决的办法首先是要重视规范,遵守约定俗成的规则,其次要改变既有思维,学会客观、理性地对待他国新闻传播史。     

Who is a Distracted Driver? Associations between Mobile Phone Use while Driving,Domain‐Specific Risk Taking,and Personality

Mobile phone use while driving (MPUWD) is an increasingly common form of distracted driving. Given its widespread prevalence, it is important for researchers to identify factors that may predict who is more likely to engage in this risky behavior. The current study investigates associations between MPUWD risk behaviors, domain‐specific risk perceptions, and broad personality dimensions. An Italian community sample (n = 804) completed a survey regarding MPUWD risk perceptions and engagement in MPUWD, in addition to the HEXACO‐PI‐R, a broad six‐factor personality inventory (honesty‐humility, emotionality, extraversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness, openness to experience), and the DOSPERT, a six‐factor domain‐specific self‐report risk‐taking measure (health/safety, recreational, social, ethical, gambling, and investment). With respect to domain‐specific risk taking, greater frequency of SMS use while driving most strongly was associated with greater risk taking for the health/safety, gambling, and ethical risk domains. Further, greater honesty‐humility and conscientiousness, two traits related to cognitive control and risk behaviors, and to a lesser extent openness to experience, were associated with less frequent MPUWD, and positively associated with MPUWD risk perceptions. With growing public safety concern surrounding MPUWD, understanding associated personality factors is not only important for identifying psychological mechanisms underlying risk behavior, but also for more effective prevention and intervention programs.     

法治视野下科研事业单位国有资产监管体制的风险拷问

科研事业单位的国有资产,不能因其资产的非生产性、无偿使用性、公共利益性就脱离法律监管的视域,因为法治精神意味着法律权威在监管主体和监管对象之间要建立约束与契约关系,故而以法治精神为参考坐标,可以清楚地认识到当前我国的科研事业单位国有资产监管体制存在着诸多漏洞和风险。     

Empirical Uncertain Bayes Methods in Area‐level Models

Random effects model can account for the lack of fitting a regression model and increase precision of estimating area‐level means. However, in case that the synthetic mean provides accurate estimates, the prior distribution may inflate an estimation error. Thus, it is desirable to consider the uncertain prior distribution, which is expressed as the mixture of a one‐point distribution and a proper prior distribution. In this paper, we develop an empirical Bayes approach for estimating area‐level means, using the uncertain prior distribution in the context of a natural exponential family, which we call the empirical uncertain Bayes (EUB) method. The regression model considered in this paper includes the Poisson‐gamma and the binomial‐beta, and the normal‐normal (Fay–Herriot) model, which are typically used in small area estimation. We obtain the estimators of hyperparameters based on the marginal likelihood by using a well‐known expectation‐maximization algorithm and propose the EUB estimators of area means. For risk evaluation of the EUB estimator, we derive a second‐order unbiased estimator of a conditional mean squared error by using some techniques of numerical calculation. Through simulation studies and real data applications, we evaluate a performance of the EUB estimator and compare it with the usual empirical Bayes estimator.     

Disability and employment policy in the Israeli welfare state: between exclusion and inclusion

Based on the social model(s) of disability, this article seeks to analyse the historical development of Israeli employment policy toward disabled people during the first decade and a half of its existence (1948–1965). Findings from primary and secondary sources suggest that throughout this period disabled people, mainly immigrants, found themselves at the lowest echelons of Israeli society and the labour market. Furthermore, the Israeli welfare state offers an interesting case study of the gap between a welfare state’s stated adherence to social justice and the more limited, and even contradictory, outcomes of its policies. Our discussion suggests that a valuable way of reframing our findings can be found in the critique of de-commodification as an inadequate concept and in the use of related concepts such as re-commodification and quasi-commodification.     

思想自由·独立思考·大胆质疑——“史学现代化”国际学术研讨会概述

学者们在"史学现代化"国际学术研讨会上就会议主题包括历史的规律、属性、功能与原因、史学观念以及主体与客体、史学现代化的内涵与趋向等史学理论和方法诸重要议题进行了热烈而深入的探讨,并且在有关问题上达成了一定的共识。这无疑会有益于丰富、充实史学的内容,从而把史学现代化推向新高度。     

国学引领文化产业繁荣论

中华国学是民族智慧结晶，是文化创意火种，重视它才能认识并开发广州龙文化、羊文化、节庆文化的底蕴，以龙舟竞渡精神，将南海神庙、黄埔古港、南沙天后宫串联成线，利用广东文化强省的政策优势、传媒优势、智力优势、制造业、文化产业优势、商都消费优势等，建好广州棋都以及国际会展集团、名城旅游集团、海上丝绸之路、越秀中华文化城、南粤演艺大观园、羊城国艺创意园等，以中华国学创意促进广州文化产业大繁荣。     

Using Multilevel Statistical Models in Social Work Intervention Research

ABSTRACT

Statistical analyses of data from a classroom-based study illustrate the need to account for intra-class clustering in studies involving schools, classrooms, and other higher order units of analysis. Students were clustered in homerooms that were assigned to intervention and comparison conditions. Standard multiple linear regression analysis yielded a significant group effect but incorrectly ignored intra-cluster response correlations. A multilevel model appropriately accounting for the dependency among responses in the same cluster yielded a nonsignificant group effect. Implications for the analysis of intervention research data are discussed.