《欧洲地区高等教育相关资格认可公约》述评

《欧洲地区高等教育相关资格认可公约》是欧洲地区国家在教育资格认可领域达成的第一个统一性综合公约,其实施对于该地区消除人员流动的政策、法律和其他结构性障碍有重要的促进作用,对该地区不同教育制度有重要的协调作用。由于该公约由欧洲委员会与联合国教科文组织合作制定,因此,其影响已经超越了欧洲地区。     

秦国早期婚姻习俗及其对后世政治势力和政治变革的影响

秦国早期的母系氏族残余及其婚姻状况对其后世政治势力演变和商鞅变法都有较大的影响。秦国的母系氏族残余、婚姻关系混乱,形成了独特的母系贵族势力强大的局面。这与六国一脉相承的公族势力恰好相反,母系贵族势力往往一朝而衰,形不成能动摇君权的顽固势力,因此变法顺利实现,中央集权制度得以建立,秦国逐步走向强盛,继而实现统一。     

Mobilizing personal networks into concert audiences: The differential multilevel effects in an art convention

As a specific art convention, graduating music students in college often invite network members to attend their degree recitals. This customary practice of network mobilization involves two types of tie effects that seemingly conflicted with each other, which became more acute when the practice abruptly changed during the Covid-19 pandemic. Based on invitation and attendance records collected from seventy-one recitals in a span of two decades before (N = 4866) and during the pandemic (N = 428) in Taiwan, multilevel analysis helped untangle which concert and tie features contributed to successful invitations at both the recital and invitation levels. Recruiting a larger proportion of weak ties helped boost the overall attendance at the recital level, while strong ties ensured positive responses to individual invitations in terms of both meeting at the recital hall and recalling the recital, particularly before the pandemic. More importantly, certain cross-level effects changed during the pandemic while others remained intact.     

Exact inference for the two-parameter exponential distribution under Type-II hybrid censoring

Epstein (1954) introduced the Type-I hybrid censoring scheme as a mixture of Type-I and Type-II censoring schemes. Childs et al. (2003) introduced the Type-II hybrid censoring scheme as an alternative to Type-I hybrid censoring scheme, and provided the exact distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator of the mean of a one-parameter exponential distribution based on Type-II hybrid censored samples. The associated confidence interval also has been provided. The main aim of this paper is to consider a two-parameter exponential distribution, and to derive the exact distribution of the maximum likelihood estimators of the unknown parameters based on Type-II hybrid censored samples. The marginal distributions and the exact confidence intervals are also provided. The results can be used to derive the exact distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator of the percentile point, and to construct the associated confidence interval. Different methods are compared using extensive simulations and one data analysis has been performed for illustrative purposes.     

会展中心和谐共融的营造设计研究——以重庆国际会展中心设计为例

介绍了国际会展业发展的状况，分析了国际会展中心规划建设的基本思路，以重庆国际会展中心设计为例，就如何根据当地实际，塑造自身会展业特色，从产业方向、所处地形条件、场馆设计等方面进行了探讨。     

流传与证言:现当代文学中的旱灾描述

旱灾是中国现当代文学创作中的常见题材。文学中的旱灾描述除关注到传统信仰的遗留和新变之外,更多集中在对现实世界的镜像展示:深重的苦难、有限的抗争、对立式的反抗和人性的杂糅。文化流传与历史证言之间的自我选择,使旱灾的"人间性"和写实姿态得以确立。文学于记录、回应时代方面之得,映衬出灾害书写在独立性和多样性层面之失。     

区域会展产业管理体制创新研究——以环渤海区域为例

结合当前我国区域会展产业现行管理体制暴露出的突出问题,揭示管理体制创新是解决区域会展业发展瓶颈的关键,提出政府必须以管理理念、管理能力、协调机制以及管理模式上有所创新,才能推动我国会展产业的进一步发展。以环渤海区域为例,对环渤海区域会展产业进行"整体性"和"层次性"定位,构建出以双核结构双驱动模式为动力体系、会展城市联盟为协作机制、区域性行业协会为联系纽带的环渤海区域会展业管理体制模式,为我国区域会展业的管理体制提供参考和借鉴。     

会展经济研究回顾与未来方向

文章分析了最近3年国外会展经济研究文献及“中国学术期刊全文数据库”（1999～2011）的882篇有关会展经济研究的文献,对现有文献综述进行补充和完善,在此基础上提出未来会展经济的研究可以根据研究者不同的学科背景,从四个领域（方向）重点介入：（1）“空间”视角——人文地理学背景;（2）产业组织视角——经济学背景;（3）微观领域（公司治理）——管理学背景;（4）会展参与者决策行为视角——心理学及社会学背景。     

A joint latent class changepoint model to improve the prediction of time to graft failure

Summary.  The reciprocal of serum creatinine concentration, RC, is often used as a biomarker to monitor renal function. It has been observed that RC trajectories remain relatively stable after transplantation until a certain moment, when an irreversible decrease in the RC levels occurs. This decreasing trend commonly precedes failure of a graft. Two subsets of individuals can be distinguished according to their RC trajectories: a subset of individuals having stable RC levels and a subset of individuals who present an irrevocable decrease in their RC levels. To describe such data, the paper proposes a joint latent class model for longitudinal and survival data with two latent classes. RC trajectories within latent class one are modelled by an intercept-only random-effects model and RC trajectories within latent class two are modelled by a segmented random changepoint model. A Bayesian approach is used to fit this joint model to data from patients who had their first kidney transplantation in the Leiden University Medical Center between 1983 and 2002. The resulting model describes the kidney transplantation data very well and provides better predictions of the time to failure than other joint and survival models.     

西方国家环境难民的争议与弥合路径解读

在环境变化与人口迁移的研究中，环境难民这一概念饱受争议。争议的焦点主要集中在迁移动因的识别、是否存在环境难民、环境难民能否纳入难民的范畴三个方面。导致环境难民概念分歧的原因在于移民跨学科研究进展缓慢和不同的利益相关者从自身的角度对环境难民进行建构。为了弥合环境难民存在的争议，学者采取了将环境变化引起的跨国被迫迁移人口视为环境难民；根据移民动机和救援紧迫性识别环境难民；采取“自愿—强制”二分法将环境难民纳入非自愿移民的范畴；维持现状与加强合作等四条路径。本文结合我国环境相关移民实践认为：扩大环境难民的范畴不利于问题的解决。环境难民不能囊括那些既定类型和约定俗成的移民类型；不能将非自愿移民等同于难民；概念界定本身无法解决身份识别。在实践中，需要从环境变化的影响识别需要救援的迁移人口；以集体身份划定环境难民范畴；履行政府的职责，最大程度上较少跨国环境难民；对不同环境变化影响的人口采取不同的迁移手段；整合资源进行合作以更好地安置移民。