Integrating risk and performance management in quality management systems for the development of complex bespoke systems (CBSs)

Abstract

Risk and performance management are at the core of complex bespoke systems (CBSs). CBSs are developed to customer–specified requirements in terms of structure, functionality and conformance. This article examines how risk and performance management are integrated as essential systems in the successful development of projects across multi-organizational functions in complex bespoke system (CBS) organizations. The article argues for the development of a quality management system that consists of two sub-processes: quality control and quality development. Using three case studies from engineering companies, we provide evidence and insights of the way change control, quality development and quality performance are developed in innovating business solutions.     

PCA likelihood ratio test approach for attributed social networks monitoring

Abstract

One of the most important factors in building and changing communication mechanisms in social networks is considering features of the members of social networks. Most of the existing methods in network monitoring don’t consider effects of features in network formation mechanisms and others don’t lead to reliable results when the features abound or when there are correlations among them. In this article, we combined two methods principal component analysis (PCA) and likelihood method to monitor the underlying network model when the features of individuals abound and when some of them have high correlations with each other.     

"筝源于瑟"说考论

筝源于瑟,说法有三:一、"筝,小瑟也";二、"颂瑟,筝也";三、分瑟为筝.其说起因不外两个方面:一、筝与瑟的形制相似;二、瑟之弦数(多谓"二十五弦",亦有谓"二十七弦"者)或为十二弦和十三弦两种筝的弦数之和,或可分出两张十三弦筝.筝源于瑟说虽非空穴来风,但其根据汉代之后筝与瑟的形制以及二者弦数的某种巧合而作的推断,仅仅是关于筝发展演进中的形制的变化,从未真正触及到早期的"五弦筑身"或"鼓弦竹身"之筝的源起问题.     

中国共产党百年文艺工作的发展历程、基本经验及当代启示

百年来，在马克思主义理论指导下，党的文艺工作始终坚守“以人民为中心”的初心，致力于民族解放与国家发展大局。从艰辛成长到曲折探索，到蓬勃发展，再到丰富创新，党的文艺工作有辉煌成就，也经历过坎坷曲折，它为百年中国革命、建设与改革事业提供了精神动力，注入了思想活力。党的百年文艺工作坚持以马克思主义文艺观为指导，坚定党在文艺工作中的领导地位，维护人民在文艺工作中的主体地位，并始终把握“弘扬主旋律”的文艺工作主题。昨日之史，今日之鉴。百年历程启示我们，在今后的文艺工作中，要坚持政治性与艺术性的统一、建设性与批判性的统一、娱乐性与教育性的统一，要善于定目标、举旗帜、聚能量，不断展现新时代文艺发展的新风貌。     

FEPA-金融时间序列自适应组合预测模型

本文报告一种金融时间序列预测的信号分析、信息融合与智能计算组合模型，简称FEPA，由针对金融时间序列（FTS）信号分析的经验模态分解（EMD）、用于数据降维的主成分分析（PCA）和用于非线性建模的人工神经网络（ANN）三部分组成。该模型首先应用滑动窗口截取原始金融时间序列最近期数据集，应用EMD分解算法把数据集分解成不同尺度的本征模态函数（IMF），然后通过主成分分析将分解后的数据降维，提取最有信息量的特征；然后将这些特征输入到神经网络进行组合预测。本文提出的组合预测模型FEPA是基于分解-提优-合成的信息融合思想，有效提高了预测可靠性。其创新点在于：1）首次给出了EMD算法的结构化表达，提供了今后融合更多信息的算法接口；2）通过多步长预测输出深入研究EMD分解的有效信息结构；3）通过切换到更细时间框架来处理EMD的端点效应，并探索了两级时间框架下的预测效果；4）给出了金融时间序列组合预测模型的一般性架构，具有可升级性和可扩展性。并且通过滑动窗口EMD使得实证更能切近实际。通过在沪深300股指和澳大利亚股指上的实证，结果表明FEPA预测模型在沪深300股指日线和15分钟线上的预测命中率高达78%和82%，在澳大利亚股指日线上也达到了74%的命中率，经比较，明显高于文献中常见的5种模型。     

A Framework to Understand Extreme Space Weather Event Probability

An extreme space weather event has the potential to disrupt or damage infrastructure systems and technologies that many societies rely on for economic and social well‐being. Space weather events occur regularly, but extreme events are less frequent, with a small number of historical examples over the last 160 years. During the past decade, published works have (1) examined the physical characteristics of the extreme historical events and (2) discussed the probability or return rate of select extreme geomagnetic disturbances, including the 1859 Carrington event. Here we present initial findings on a unified framework approach to visualize space weather event probability, using a Bayesian model average, in the context of historical extreme events. We present disturbance storm time (Dst ) probability (a proxy for geomagnetic disturbance intensity) across multiple return periods and discuss parameters of interest to policymakers and planners in the context of past extreme space weather events. We discuss the current state of these analyses, their utility to policymakers and planners, the current limitations when compared to other hazards, and several gaps that need to be filled to enhance space weather risk assessments.     

陕南商洛客家方言入声演变的特点

商洛客家方言古入声今读的情况是塞音韵尾已全部丢失，入声韵尾脱落后，古入声韵或以主要元音相近为原则，归入相应的阴声韵，或独立成韵，相对比较复杂。入声调的今读情况各地也存在差异，罗湾保留阴入、阳入，安乐只有阴入，其他地方没有入声调，清入字或归上声或归阳入，全浊字都归去声，次浊入字部分随清入字走，部分随全浊入字走。     

Explicit analytical solutions for ARL of CUSUM chart for a long-memory SARFIMA model

This paper aims to derive explicit analytical solutions for Average Run Length (ARL) of CUSUM chart for the SARFIMA(P,D,Q)_S process with exponential white noise. Measurement of performance was done with the ARL in terms of percentage error and CPU time. The results obtained from the explicit formulas were compared focusing on the performance using the numerical integral equation (NIE) method. Both methods had similarly excellent agreement with the percentage error at less than 0.25%. Meanwhile, the explicit formulas consumed less CPU time than the NIE method. It is clear that the explicit formulas are a good alternative in real applications.