Female Labor Supply,Human Capital,and Welfare Reform

We estimate a dynamic model of employment, human capital accumulation—including education, and savings for women in the United Kingdom, exploiting tax and benefit reforms, and use it to analyze the effects of welfare policy. We find substantial elasticities for labor supply and particularly for lone mothers. Returns to experience, which are important in determining the longer‐term effects of policy, increase with education, but experience mainly accumulates when in full‐time employment. Tax credits are welfare improving in the U.K., increase lone‐mother labor supply and marginally reduce educational attainment, but the employment effects do not extend beyond the period of eligibility. Marginal increases in tax credits improve welfare more than equally costly increases in income support or tax cuts.     

抗日文学光环掩盖下的文革

何顿的抗日题材长篇小说《来生再见》,其写作的重心不在抗日,而在文革;作家关注的不是历史,而是普通人在极端政治条件下人性的挣扎。生存环境险恶严酷的抗战时期,主人公黄抗日能够应用自己的生存哲学虎口脱身,回到家中安静地生活;但在文革的政治环境下,他却被逼得装疯、吃屎,家破人亡,生活、人格肢解得体无完肤。作品通过这种对比竖起了一座文革无字碑,形成对文革无言的控诉。     

Eliciting Subjective Survival Curves: Lessons from Partial Identification

When analyzing data on subjective expectations of continuous outcomes, researchers have access to a limited number of reported probabilities for each respondent from which to construct complete distribution functions. Moreover, reported probabilities may be rounded and thus not equal to true beliefs. Using survival expectations elicited from a representative sample from the Netherlands, we investigate what can be learned if we take these two sources of missing information into account and expectations are therefore only partially identified. We find novel evidence for rounding by checking whether reported expectations are consistent with a hazard of death that increases weakly with age. Only 39% of reported beliefs are consistent with this under the assumption that all probabilities are reported precisely, while 92% are if we allow for rounding. Using the available information to construct bounds on subjective life expectancy, we show that the data alone are not sufficiently informative to allow for useful inference in partially identified linear models, even in the absence of rounding. We propose to improve precision by interpolation between rounded probabilities. Interpolation in combination with a limited amount of rounding does yield informative intervals.     

Hazard functions and life distributions in discrete time

The problem of studying lifelength distributions in discrete time is considered for certain forms of hazard functions. A class of life distributions that consists of the geometric, the Waring and the negative hypergeometric distributions is shown to result when the hazard function is inversely proportional to some linear function of time.     

见与不见：再论韩复榘与山东新生活运动

借新生活运动加强专制统治的山东韩复榘政府，在社会问题的整治上颇为用力，并取得了较为明显的效果。然而长期以来史家和坊间在评论韩复榘的时候，不是着墨于其政治生命后半程“印影”，就是湎于渲染韩的各版本“闹剧”的生产。尽管韩复榘的新生活运动呈虎头蛇尾之相，但即便摒弃后现代史学中的断裂地方史、小叙事的范式，史者也应有义务继续加力破除笼罩在韩复榘式的历史人物身上的流言，更客观地“见”他们曾有的“虎头”。     

A statistical measure of internal consistency

A test for homogeneity of several populations against the simple tree alternative is proposed when the observations in various groups are subject to the same pattern of random right-censorship. The test is a generalization of the one proposed by Slivka (1970) which is useful when testing time is expensive so that an early termination of an experiment is desirable. The power of the test is examined in a simulation study.     

论《生死疲劳》的叙事策略

莫言仅用43天的时间就创作了近50万字的《生死疲劳》,其创作速度之快、文本之厚重、情节之复杂都令人惊奇。《生死疲劳》的成功与莫言独特的叙事策略密不可分,"六道轮回"的叙事模式、灵活多变的叙述视角以及怪诞传奇的叙事情节,不单是吸引读者的因素,更是文本构造的支柱。     

和谐社会视阈下大学生生命教育管窥

建设和谐社会需要和谐的人。大学生是建设社会主义和谐社会的主力军,他们素质的高低关系到国家的兴亡、民族的兴衰,提高大学生的素质关键在教育。而近年来大学生暴力伤害、自杀、他杀等各种漠视生命的现象屡有发生,生命教育正在成为现代高等教育乃至未来高等教育的一个重要话题。在和谐社会视域下,教育要从关注生命出发,教育大学生珍爱生命、尊重生命、欣赏生命。     

网络“审丑”泛化对大学生思想行为的影响及对策研究

伴随着互联网技术的迅速发展，网络已经深入到大学生生活的每个角落，在缤纷复杂的网络世界中，形形色色的信息充斥着大学生的视野。当媒体和个人都以不健康的眼光对待网络审丑时，错误的世界观、人生观、价值观、与审美观就可能使大学生难以明辨是与非、美与丑。以丑为美，趋丑避美，长此以往，网络审丑泛化将会给社会公众，尤其是正在成长的大学生造成思想混乱、主流价值观颠覆及社会主流文化形态变异的趋势，应引起我们高度重视，是网络思想政治教育领域迫切需要研究和亟待解决的新问题。     

阿伦特人权现象学探微

古典人权理论的本质主义立场将人权归结为人所固有的权利,而忽略了人权得以实现的条件,从而使人沦为没有任何身份的赤裸生命,最终导致人权在现实中很难得到有力的保障。阿伦特从现象学的视角出发,以其富有争议的方式对当代的自明之理提出了挑战,反对用固有的理论范畴来解释人类历史的经验,强调采用新的方式朝向实事本身,重新考虑人权的条件,也即共同体的基础性作用。这种对当代自明之理的尖锐挑战,为我们反思人权问题提供了新的可能性。