The predictability of stock returns - a nonparametric approach

This paper reexamines the predictability of stock returns with a nonparametric model. We first identify, through a set of diagnostic tests, five lagged predictive factors from a linear model. Using these factors, we predict one-month-ahead stock index returns with a nonparametric approach. We find that our nonparametricmodel. We first identify, through a set of diagnostic tests, five lagged predictive factors from a linear model. Using these factors, we predict on -month-ahead stock index returns with a nonparametric approach. We find that our nonparametric model can correctly predict about 74% of stock index return signs. With various ex ante trading rules based on nonparametric predictions and transaction cost schedules, we then compare the performance of "managed" portfolios with that of the buy and hold portfolios. We fmd that the managed portfolios are mean-variance dominant over the buy-and-hold strategies when no or low transaction costs are assumed. When high transaction costs are assumed instead, the mean-variance dominance diminishes However,the Sharpe index of risk-adjusted portfolio performanceindicates that the managed portfolios significantly outperform the buy-and-hold strategies even for the high-transaction cost scenario. We show that the difference in performance between the managed portfolios and the buy-and-hold strategies can be partially explained by the January effect or the small firm effect. In sum, this paper demonstrates the merits of using a nonparametric approach for predicting stock returns and testing market efficiency.     

我国制造型企业市场导向和创新导向对新产品绩效影响的实证研究

本研究基于我国227家制造型企业的问卷调查数据,实证考察了市场导向和创新导向对新产品开发绩效的影响,以及创新导向和环境变动在市场导向和新产品绩效关系中的调节作用。结果显示:(1)本研究的概念模型整体拟合度优于西方常用模型;(2)市场导向和创新导向对制造型企业新产品开发绩效的影响显著为正,且均高于以前文献研究的一般水平;(3)创新导向和技术变化对于市场导向和新产品绩效的关系起到正向调节作用;(4)市场变化和竞争强度的调节作用不显著。研究结果对于制造型企业改善产品创新绩效具有重要的启示意义。     

The Potential for Cannibalization of New Products Sales by Remanufactured Products*

The potential for cannibalization of new product sales by remanufactured versions of the same product is a central issue in the continuing development of closed‐loop supply chains. Practitioners have no fact‐based information to guide practice at firms and academics have no studies available to use as the basis for assumptions in models. We address the cannibalization issue by using auctions to determine consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for both new and remanufactured products. The auctions also allow us to better understand the potential impact of offering new and remanufactured products at the same time, which provides us insights into the potential for new product cannibalization. Our results indicate that, for the consumer and commercial products auctioned, there is a clear difference in WTP) for new and remanufactured goods. For the consumer product, there is scant overlap in bidders between the new and remanufactured products, leading us to conclude that the risk of cannibalization in this case is minimal. For the commercial product, there is evidence of overlap in bidding behavior, exposing the potential for cannibalization.     

战略导向、组织学习对产品创新的影响研究

本文对战略导向影响产品创新的路径进行了研究,发现不同战略导向对学习活动有不同的选择倾向,而不同类型的学习活动也会对产品创新产生不同的影响。本研究不仅弥补了应用性学习与探索性学习研究的不足,也有助于企业引导和利用组织学习来提高产品创新水平,为管理实践提供理论参考。     

多产品竞争中企业产品线最优区域的选择

多产品厂商产品线延伸收缩的决策,不仅仅与自身的竞争实力有关,还与产品的市场特性有关。低端市场上的产品处于生命周期末期,厂商的市场空间不断缩小,市场竞争异常激烈。而新兴市场上的产品从成长期向成熟期过渡,技术不断成熟,消费群体稳步增长。拥有技术优势的厂商必然会收缩低端产品线,放弃低端市场,然后延伸高端产品线,进入新兴市场,从而提升自身的利润水平;由于低端市场上厂商的退出,市场竞争烈度的下降,低端市场在位企业的利润水平也会因此有所改善。     

Strategic Liquidity Provision in Limit Order Markets

We characterize and prove the existence of Nash equilibrium in a limit order market with a finite number of risk‐neutral liquidity providers. We show that if there is sufficient adverse selection, then pointwise optimization (maximizing in p for each q) in a certain nonlinear pricing game produces a Nash equilibrium in the limit order market. The need for a sufficient degree of adverse selection does not vanish as the number of liquidity providers increases. Our formulation of the nonlinear pricing game encompasses various specifications of informed and liquidity trading, including the case in which nature chooses whether the market‐order trader is informed or a liquidity trader. We solve for an equilibrium analytically in various examples and also present examples in which the first‐order condition for pointwise optimization does not define an equilibrium, because the amount of adverse selection is insufficient.     

深化征地制度改革研究——基于保护农民土地权益视角

从保护农民土地权益的视角阐述了现行征地制度中对农民土地权益的侵害,认为政府具有侵害农民土地权益的利益冲动,且我国农民缺乏维护自身利益的土地权力基础并受到"公私"理念的桎梏,而界定公共利益和征地补偿标准存在着现实难题,这些都是征地制度中农民土地权益屡遭侵害的原因。对此,提出切实保护农民土地权益,就必须明确界定公共利益,土地市场中引入价格机制;提高征地补偿标准,完善征地补偿内容;建立失地农民社会保障体系;形成有效约束机制,建立法治政府等。     

上证指数收益率的特征及其波动性分析

股票价格的频繁波动是股票市场最明显的特征之一。ARCH类模型可以很好地预测金融资产收益率的方差。通过对上证指数的统计分析表明,上证指数的收益率分布表现出非正态性,并存在自回归条件异方差的特征。利用ARCH类模型对上证指数的波动进行了拟合,结果表明GARCH(1,1)模型对上证指数波动具有较好的拟合效果。     

市场导向下的西部民族地区内生式发展研究

面对中国经济非均衡发展现状,缩小区域差距成为西部民族经济转型的关键动因。立足西部民族地区发展现状,转变经济发展方式是经济转型的占优选择。分析西部民族经济发展条件,市场主导下的内生式发展是其转变发展方式的正确方向,现代循环经济模式则是实践这一转变的占优路径。