劳动力转移下的中国农业经济增长——基于1986-2005年的经验证据

本文以新古典经济学的农业劳动力转移理论为基础构建计量经济模型,运用1986—2005年的数据,对我国农业劳动力转移对农业经济增长的影响做了实证分析,结合中国农村的具体情况进一步深入分析得出以下结论:第一,农业劳动力转移对农业经济增长有显著的促进作用。第二,农业劳动力转移促进农业经济增长的传导机制在于:促进了农村土地流转,使农业生产初具规模,农业机械使用增加,显著地推动了农业经济增长。第三,农民工社会保障的缺失,使土地出租短期化,土地改良投资小,化肥施用量大大增加,化肥的大量使用使土壤肥力下降,引起了农业产出下降。     

70年代以来美国国内人口迁移态势与成因分析

美国人口密度相对较小 ,自然增长缓慢 ,机械变动大 ,外来人口补充了其劳动力资源。 90年代以来 ,美国国内的人口迁移呈下降趋势 ,迁移规律表现为 :1 向西部、向南部向阳光地带流动 ;2 向大都市区流动 ;3 由城市向市郊转移 ,向乡间转移。其迁移规律表现为 :短距离迁移者多 ,租房户迁移多 ,2 0 - 30岁的年轻人迁移者多。形成这一态势的原因有三 :市场结构性的变化、经济利益的驱动和文化生态因素     

Will the retiring baby boomers return to rural periphery?

Many belonging to large post-war age cohorts in the western countries moved from rural areas to larger industrializing cities. They retire soon and can consider moving back to the childhood places. This article studies these baby boomers and the issues about their return to peripheral rural areas. The case regards one rural municipality, Ristijärvi, in the remote Northeastern Finland. Despite ageing of local population, Ristijärvi aims to attract new elderly inhabitants with the Seniorpolis project. The entire baby boom generation of Ristijärvi municipality was studied. A questionnaire was answered by 313 people born in Ristijärvi in 1946–1955 and who live now elsewhere in Finland. Answers were analyzed with cross tables and factor analysis. Additional phone interview was held with 66 considering return migration. Furthermore, local policies to attract the elderly (return) migrants were analyzed. Potential elderly return migrants with spouse can reach up to tenth of current municipal population. Of the respondents 3% expressed their wish to return and 19% could live part-time in Ristijärvi. Remained contacts and summer cottage in Ristijärvi and wish to live in rural areas influence positively on returning. Those interested in returning seek clean nature, peaceful environment, security, detached houses with beautiful setting, lower housing costs and landscapes of home region. Elderly and their return migration should be conceptualized further. Return migration can be a trigger for local development as presented in the public–private initiative the Seniorpolis. However, local elderly policies should be analyzed carefully and promoted those projects having long-term positive impact.     

人力资本区域迁移与经济增长理论模型—国际智力外流模型的拓展

本研究将国际智力外流模型拓展为两区域模型．综合考虑人力资本迁移对迁入地区和迁出地区的经济增长效应，并且进一步引入迁移成本，构建适用于中国人力资本区域迁移与经济增长的理论模型。基本启示是：中国人力资本区域迁移在理论上完全能够实现人力资本迁入地区和人力资本迁出地区双赢．同时迁移成本的降低将大大促进人力资本迁移的经济增长效应。模型暗含的政策建议是降低中国区域间人力资本迁移成本，加速区域间人力资本合理迁移以促进中国各区域经济增长。     

迁入地类型的选择——基于五普资料的分析

利用第五次人口普查长表0.95‰微观资料,研究移民特征对迁入地类型选择的影响。结果显示,移民的人口因素和社会特征对迁移目的地的选择有较大的影响。移民人口有向青壮年集中的趋势。婚姻迁移妇女的目的地主要是乡村。有配偶的人更多地考虑迁移对家庭的影响。户籍制度仍然对人口迁移起到限制作用。     

东汉时期匈奴族的人口

根据有关记载推算,东汉和帝永元年间,南北匈奴的人口总数约有140万,这是我们所能推知的东汉时期匈奴人口的最高数。东汉前期北匈奴居住在漠北,南匈奴主要分布在并州、凉州、幽州的缘边诸郡。东汉中后期,匈奴人口逐渐内徙到今天的山西中部一带。东汉末年,一部分匈奴人被迁居到魏的邺城。     

不确定性预期影响下的农村消费市场发展研究

启动农村消费市场,将农村消费市场培育成新的消费热点,是诱导我国消费快速增长的关键,但我国农村居民受不确定性预期的影响,导致农村消费市场难以启动。为解决此问题,文章将综合考虑来自社会、历史文化、经济等多方面复杂因素,从收入不确定性、流动性约束、环境约束及传统观念等角度展开论述,揭示农村消费市场现阶段存在的问题,从制度建设等方面提出扩大内需,启动农村消费市场的政策建议。     

Demography of Illicit Emigration from China: A Sending Country's Perspective

This paper examines the demographic trends of international migration from China, particularly from Fujian Province in the 1980s and 1990s, comparing the characteristics of emigrants with nonemigrants. This research yields two major findings. First, Fujian Province became a leading immigrant-sending province in the mid-1990s. Second, there have also been changes in socioeconomic status (SES) selectivity of emigration from Fujian from 1990 to 1995. In particular, this change in emigration selectivity is characterized by a significant shift from urbanites to rural peasants. The future prospects of emigration from Fujian and China are explored.     

A Study of the Gendered Identity of Female Migrants in Contemporary China

As a new group in the process of socio-economic transformation, female members of the Chinese floating population have negative self-identities rooted in the traditional gender discrimination in China society. This impacts negatively on female migrants1 both physiologically and psychologically, disadvantaging them in the pursuit of resources, opportunities and rights. It is therefore necessary to positively influence the self-image of female migrants so as to ensure their rights, further their interests and...     

流动妇女心理健康状况分析

通过对江苏省张家港市和江阴市流动人口基本情况和症状自评量表(SCL-90)的实地调查,从流动妇女的人口社会学因素和流动经历特征分层分析流动妇女的心理健康状况。流动妇女心理健康水平低于成年正常女性;从人口社会学因素来看,未婚、无小孩、年轻的流动妇女心理健康水平较低;从流动经历来看,常回老家者、和家人同在一个城市者、对生活状况满意者的心理健康状况相对较好。