An option contract pricing model of relief material supply chain

Relief material management which aims to reduce the impact of disaster and maintain social stability is of great importance for nonprofit organization (NPO) such as government, department of civil affair or Red Cross. However, the research of efficiency and performance on this field has long been ignored. In order to improve the efficiency and performance of the relief material management, we apply the supply chain management method into this field. Considering the relief material management system as a supply chain with one buyer and one supplier, we introduce the option contract mechanism into relief material supply chain management. With reasonable assumptions, we design an option contract with two delivery steps, and build an option pricing model with binominal lattice to estimate the different values of the same option contract for both members of supply chain. Furthermore, we analyze the impacts of the different parameters (such as the ratio of inventory, subjective probability of disaster, etc.), on the supply chain and its members in detail. The numerical example presented at last demonstrates that, with two delivery steps, there is a feasible price range of option contract which makes both members of relief material supply chain profitable and willing to conduct the transaction with option contract.     

基于实物期权理论重构企业投资决策方法体系

传统的投资决策方法是一种广泛应用的以货币的时间价值为基础的投资决策方法,它已越来越不能适应当今充满风险和不确定性的市场需要.而引入实物期权理论恰好能克服传统投资决策方法所存在的缺陷.为此,本文从理论上和技术上阐述了重构企业投资决策方法体系的可能性,并由此提出了研究内容的基本框架.     

Adaptive Tactical Pricing in Multi‐Agent Supply Chain Markets Using Economic Regimes

In today's complex and dynamic supply chain markets, information systems are essential for effective supply chain management. Complex decision making processes on strategic, tactical, and operational levels require substantial timely support in order to contribute to organizations' agility. Consequently, there is a need for sophisticated dynamic product pricing mechanisms that can adapt quickly to changing market conditions and competitors' strategies. We propose a two‐layered machine learning approach to compute tactical pricing decisions in real time. The first layer estimates prevailing economic conditions—economic regimes—identifying and predicting current and future market conditions. In the second layer, we train a neural network for each regime to estimate price distributions in real time using available information. The neural networks compute offer acceptance probabilities from a tactical perspective to meet desired sales quotas. We validate our approach in the trading agent competition for supply chain management. When competing against the world's leading agents, the performance of our system significantly improves compared to using only economic regimes to predict prices. Profits increase significantly even though the prices and sales volume do not change significantly. Instead, tactical pricing results in a more efficient sales strategy by reducing both finished goods and components inventory costs.     

Risk Mitigation Benefit from Backup Suppliers in the Presence of the Horizontal Fairness Concern

The backup supply strategy is demonstrated as an effective approach to mitigating supply risk. We study a supply chain in which a leader manufacturer designs a contract to a potential backup supplier to mitigate the yield uncertainty of the primary supplier. In this context, the backup supplier may compare with the primary supplier and have horizontal fairness concerns. We model the contract design problem using a Stackelberg game and characterize the optimal decisions for the manufacturer and backup supplier, in both fairness and off‐fairness settings. The theoretical results show that the leader manufacturer must sacrifice his own payoff to balance the payoffs of both suppliers. As a result, using a self‐interested backup supplier is the dominating strategy, whereas using a fair‐minded backup supplier is only suggested when the reliability of the primary supplier is low and the fairness concern of the backup supplier is not strong. Additionally, the backup supplier only benefits from fairness concerns when the level is not exceeding a threshold value. With regard to high fairness levels beyond this threshold, fairness concern has negative effects on the monetary payoff and even might lead to loss of the business. By conducting laboratory experiments, we provide evidence of the horizontal fairness concern from the backup supplier. Further, we show that if the primary supplier also has horizontal fairness concerns, the leader manufacturer can conditionally benefit from a promoted yield reliability due to an extra effort from the primary supplier.     

知识经济背景下影响价格制定与调整的心理因素研究

在知识经济时代,随着知识等新的价值因素在商品价格中所占比例的增大,消费者心理因素对价格的影响,变得比以往任何历史时期都更加显著。因此,只有深入研究这些因素,并在此基础上采用与之相适应的价格制定与调整的策略,才能实现既卖出商品获得利润,又能让消费者满意的双赢效果。     

国有银行的贷款定价研究——基于无锡市中小企业的实证

随着我国利率市场化改革的不断深入，利率的形成机制和定价水平对于资金运用和资源配置的效率有着极其重要的意义。本文运用无锡某国有银行提供的中小企业贷款数据及相关金融理论，对中小企业的贷款定价行为进行实证分析，检验了相关因素对于贷款利率的实际影响，并对进一步完善银行的贷款定价机制提出建议。     

安然事件对完善我国公司治理的几点启示

本文通过对安然事件暴露出美国在公司治理方面所存在的缺陷的分析 ,认为我国公司治理 ,必须在借鉴美国经验的基础上 ,结合中国具体国情 ,从强化独立董事独立性、健全激励机制、加强金融中介机构参与公司治理几个方面来不断完善和创新     

Strategic Revenue Sharing with Daily Deal Sites: A Competitive Analysis

Promoting through daily deal sites has become popular in the past few years. Groupon is perhaps the best known provider of these promotions (also known as online discount vouchers) to customers. Daily deals differ from traditional coupons on three important dimensions: (i) They are not offered to consumers directly by firms but are offered through an intermediary, (ii) the promotional depth offered by these localized promotions tends to be higher, and (iii) consumers prepay for the discount vouchers, and then the daily deals site reimburses the retailer a prespecified negotiated percentage of each paid voucher. In this study, we build a theoretical model to explore the profitability of undertaking a daily deals campaign by firms. Our analysis identifies the role of types of consumers in the market, relative bargaining power of the local firms, revenue sharing agreements, and market characteristics, such as degree of product substitutability and extent of competition, on the profitability attained through daily deal promotions. Surprisingly, when demand spillovers exist, an asymmetric outcome, with one firm offering an online discount voucher and the competing firm not offering an online discount voucher, is an equilibrium under some conditions.      

Optimal pricing and production decisions in the presence of symmetrical and asymmetrical substitution

Firms may produce a variety of generally similar products or may practice “scientific pricing” or revenue management where the firm will offer similar or somewhat differentiated products in multiple market segments at different prices. Whenever generally similar products are available, the demand for the products is linked through the ability of the customer to substitute one product for another. One widely known type of demand substitution is referred to as inventory-driven substitution where a customer will substitute for a product that is out of stock by buying a similar product. A second type of substitution occurs as a response to price-differences when a customer substitutes a less expensive product for a similar higher priced product.     

Analytical results for IGFR and DRPFR distributions,with actuarial applications

An increasing generalized failure rate of a lifetime X defines an ageing concept, denoted by IGFR. Another notion, denoted by DRPFR, is defined by the decreasingness of the reversed proportional failure rate. In this article, we provide characterizations for both IGFR and DRPFR absolutely continuous lifetimes, based on monotonicity of quotients of probabilistic functionals and a result by Nanda and Shaked (2001 Nanda, A.K., Shaked, M. (2001). The hazard rate and the reversed hazard rate orders, with applications to order statistics. Ann. Inst. Stat. Math. 53:853–864.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). We derive the necessary conditions for the IGFR notion, based on stochastic orderings of truncated distributions, and we prove that the product of DRPFR lifetimes is also DRPFR; that the IGFR property is preserved by composition with certain risk aversion utility functions; and that the order statistics and the records (and the subsequent order statistic (record)) are IGFR under suitable assumptions, with similar results for DRPFR lifetimes. Also, we provide sufficient conditions for the hazard rate ordering of products and random products of IGFR lifetimes, and similar results for the reversed hazard rate order and DRPFR lifetimes, with a complementary result for the mean residual life order of random products of two families of IGFR lifetimes, we derive the upper and lower bounds for the cumulative distribution function of the product of IGFR lifetimes, and we provide the lower bounds for the risk function of an IGFR lifetime based on the distribution moments, and these bounds are extended for the product of IGFR lifetimes. We discuss extensively the applications of the results in insurance portfolios.