中东剧变中的阿尔及利亚政局透视

2010年底以来,中东地区多国发生了政权更迭,阿尔及利亚一度爆发群众游行示威,但目前阿尔及利亚政局基本稳定,原因可归纳为以下四个方面:一是阿尔及利亚独立以来的长期动荡释放了民众的不满;二是布特弗利卡执政联盟仍具有较强的政治实力;三是国内的两个主要反对派因其各自的缺陷,难以获得大多数民众的支持;四是现政权与美国保持了较好的关系。然而,由于目前中东地区的局势尚在发展中,随着新因素的加入,阿尔及利亚的政局仍存在变数。     

中东剧变以来的东盟与海合会关系研究

中东剧变对阿拉伯世界整体格局和阿拉伯板块在国际体系中的地位产生了深刻影响。阿拉伯世界转型促使海合会正不断向阿拉伯君主共同体转型,也加快了东盟本身及其许多成员国的民主化进程。面对当前海合会从海湾次地区力量迈向中东地区性力量的战略走向,东盟在政治与经济层面加强了与海合会的协作,海合会的大国外交战略也将不断变化中的东盟纳入其重要战略目标领域。尽管如此,双边政治合作仍滞后于经贸合作,东盟—海合会自由贸易区仍是未来的首要目标。     

Substance‐dependent women becoming mothers: breaking the cycle of adverse childhood experiences

Parenting may be particularly challenging for substance‐dependent mothers who have grown up with parents who themselves had substance use disorders (SUDs). The aim of this study was to explore how substance‐dependent mothers describe their childhood experiences with substance‐abusing parents and the association between these earlier experiences and their own role as caregivers. Using purposeful sampling, mothers admitted for 1 year to a family ward at a substance abuse clinic were approached. Through in‐depth, qualitative interviews, nine substance‐dependent mothers described their lives in the form of present, past and future tense. The findings indicate that substance‐dependent women, who have experienced SUDs in their families of origin, face several major challenges when they become mothers. Some describe having lived their whole lives ‘on the edge of society'. This makes their rehabilitation process more complex. All mothers work to abstain from substances, process traumatic experiences and integrate their family into society. They need help to build supportive social networks and to establish a safe and predictable family environment for themselves and their children. The therapeutic implications of these findings will be discussed.     

终身教育理念下思想政治教育的定位与实现路径

在终身教育理念指导下，思想政治教育的可持续性、开放性、主体性以及建立公民学习信仰的目标定位应得到突显。为此，要积极营造良好的思想政治终身教育的社会氛围，建构思想政治理论课教师队伍的终身教育体系，开展思想政治终身教育的方法创新和途径创新。     

中国青年政治意识的未来发展

青年政治意识作为社会政治现象中的一个特殊方面,对中国、中国特色社会主义乃至中国特色社会主义政治的长远发展都具有重要的现实意义。以社会主义公共意识为基础,以主体性、发展性为一般属性,以政治性、积极性和行动性为特殊属性的政治行动意识作为主体政治心理走向政治人格的重要中介,是中国青年政治意识发展的未来取向,以政治参与意识为中心的青年政治行动意识培养是中国青年政治意识未来发展的重要路径。     

The Political Economy of Social Insurance: Towards a Fiscal‐Centred Framework

This article draws attention to social insurance (SI) as a revenue raising institution, and explores the potential merits of drawing on new fiscal sociology for studying the development of SI systems. This is done by revisiting previous research conducted in Germany, the USA, Finland and Israel and by offering a new reading of their findings. The reviewed cases support two interlocking claims drawn from new fiscal sociology to the study of SI. The first is that state actors may perceive SI as an extraction instrument and employ it to advance fiscal and/or economic interests other than covering the costs of SI schemes. The second is that the design and management of contribution policies for such purposes may have substantial ramifications for the development of SI schemes. In addition, while current understandings tend to associate fiscal concerns with welfare state retrenchment, this article shows that they can also play a major role in driving welfare state expansion.     

The effect of sociodemographic (mis)match between interviewers and respondents on unit and item nonresponse in Belgium

Interviewer characteristics affect nonresponse and measurement errors in face-to-face surveys. Some studies have shown that mismatched sociodemographic characteristics – for example gender – affect people's behavior when interacting with an interviewer at the door and during the survey interview, resulting in more nonresponse. We investigate the effect of sociodemographic (mis)matching on nonresponse in two successive rounds of the European Social Survey in Belgium. As such, we replicate the analyses of the effect of (mis)matching gender and age on unit nonresponse on the one hand, and of gender, age and education level (mis)matching on item nonresponse on the other hand. Recurring effects of sociodemographic (mis)match are found for both unit and item nonresponse.     

Testing variance components in balanced linear growth curve models

It is well known that the testing of zero variance components is a non-standard problem since the null hypothesis is on the boundary of the parameter space. The usual asymptotic chi-square distribution of the likelihood ratio and score statistics under the null does not necessarily hold because of this null hypothesis. To circumvent this difficulty in balanced linear growth curve models, we introduce an appropriate test statistic and suggest a permutation procedure to approximate its finite-sample distribution. The proposed test alleviates the necessity of any distributional assumptions for the random effects and errors and can easily be applied for testing multiple variance components. Our simulation studies show that the proposed test has Type I error rate close to the nominal level. The power of the proposed test is also compared with the likelihood ratio test in the simulations. An application on data from an orthodontic study is presented and discussed.     

Mortality among elder abuse victims in rural Malaysia: A two-year population-based descriptive study

Our study aims at describing mortality among reported elder abuse experiences in rural Malaysia. This is a population-based cohort study with a multistage cluster sampling method. Older adults in Kuala Pilah (n = 1,927) were interviewed from November 2013 to May 2014. Mortality was traced after 2 years using the National Registration Department database. Overall, 139 (7.2%) respondents died. Fifteen (9.6%) abuse victims died compared to 124 (7.0%) not abused. Mortality was highest with financial abuse (13%), followed by psychological abuse (10.8%). There was a dose-response relationship between mortality and clustering of abuse: 7%, 7.7%, and 14.0% for no abuse, one type, and two types or more, respectively. Among abuse victims, 40% of deaths had ill-defined causes, 33% were respiratory-related, and 27% had cardiovascular and metabolic origin. Results suggest a link between abuse and mortality. Death proportions varied according to abuse subtypes and gender.     

The methodology of a multi-model project examining how facebook infrastructures social relations

It is the purpose of this paper to make explicit the methodology (the theory of the methods) by which we conducted research for an Economic and Social Research Council-funded research project on the relationship of values to value. Specifically, we wanted to study the imperative of Facebook to monetize social relationships, what happens when one of our significant forms of communication is driven by the search for profit, by the logic of capital. We therefore wanted to ‘get inside’ and understand what capital's new lines of flight, informationally driven models of economic expansion, do to social relations. Taking up the challenge to develop methods appropriate to the challenges of ‘big data', we applied four different methods to investigate the interface that is Facebook: we designed custom software tools, generated an online survey, developed data visualizations, and conducted interviews with participants to discuss their understandings of our analysis. We used Lefebvre's [(2004). Rhythmnanalysis: Space, time and everyday life. London: Continuum] rhythmanalysis and Kember and Zylinska's [(2012). Life after new media: Mediation as a vital process. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press] ideas about ‘lifeness’ to inform our methodology. This paper reports on a research process that was not entirely straightforward. We were thwarted in a variety of ways, especially by challenge to use software to study software and had to develop our project in unanticipated directions, but we also found much more than we initially imagined possible. As so few academic researchers are able to study Facebook through its own tools (as Tufekci [(2014 Tufekci, Z. (2014). Big questions for social media big data: Representativeness, validity and other methodological pitfalls. In ICWSM ‘14: Proceedings of the 8th International AAAI Conference on Weblogs and Social Media, pp. 505–514. [Google Scholar]). Big questions for social media big data: Representativeness, validity and other methodological pitfalls. In ICWSM ‘14: Proceedings of the 8th International AAAI Conference on Weblogs and Social Media (pp. 505–514)] notes how, unsurprisingly, at the 2013 ICWSM only about 5% of papers were about Facebook and nearly all of these were co-authored with Facebook data scientists), we hope that our methodology is useful for other researchers seeking to develop less conventional research on Facebook.