立足"3R"打造矿难治理的准备构成

打造矿难治理的准备构成是一项复杂的、系统性的工作,也是坚持“以人为本”的科学发展观与构建和谐社会对矿业行业的具体要求。矿难因为涉及到人民的生命与财产安全,已成为制约我国经济社会可持续发展的瓶颈。导致矿难频发的重要原因在于矿难治理的准备机制不足,因此治理矿难频发关键要立足“3R”,即“备战、反应、关联”,打造矿难治理的准备构成体系,建立、健全我国矿难治理的长效准备机制。     

跨国公司研发国际化与中国世界制造中心成长

跨国公司研发活动国际化趋势日益加强,并呈现向发展中东道国集中的发展趋势。理论上讲,跨国公司研发国际化对发展中东道国的技术进步有正反两方面的影响。中国正处在世界制造基地向世界制造中心转变的过程中,应该积极发挥跨国公司研发国际化给中国技术进步带来的积极作用,提升中国制造业自主技术创新能力,实现向世界制造中心升级。     

ON THE COVERAGE PROBABILITY OF CONFIDENCE INTERVALS IN REGRESSION AFTER VARIABLE SELECTION

This paper considers a linear regression model with regression parameter vector β. The parameter of interest is θ= a^Tβ where a is specified. When, as a first step, a data‐based variable selection (e.g. minimum Akaike information criterion) is used to select a model, it is common statistical practice to then carry out inference about θ, using the same data, based on the (false) assumption that the selected model had been provided a priori. The paper considers a confidence interval for θ with nominal coverage 1 ‐ α constructed on this (false) assumption, and calls this the naive 1 ‐ α confidence interval. The minimum coverage probability of this confidence interval can be calculated for simple variable selection procedures involving only a single variable. However, the kinds of variable selection procedures used in practice are typically much more complicated. For the real‐life data presented in this paper, there are 20 variables each of which is to be either included or not, leading to 2²⁰ different models. The coverage probability at any given value of the parameters provides an upper bound on the minimum coverage probability of the naive confidence interval. This paper derives a new Monte Carlo simulation estimator of the coverage probability, which uses conditioning for variance reduction. For these real‐life data, the gain in efficiency of this Monte Carlo simulation due to conditioning ranged from 2 to 6. The paper also presents a simple one‐dimensional search strategy for parameter values at which the coverage probability is relatively small. For these real‐life data, this search leads to parameter values for which the coverage probability of the naive 0.95 confidence interval is 0.79 for variable selection using the Akaike information criterion and 0.70 for variable selection using Bayes information criterion, showing that these confidence intervals are completely inadequate.     

韩国新一轮产业结构调整及其对我国经济结构调整的启示

20世纪90年代以来,韩国经济发展速度放慢的一个重要原因,就是产业结构调整的滞后。目前,韩国正在进行新一轮的产业结构调整,并且初见成效。研究并借鉴韩国产业结构调整的得失,对正处于经济结构调整关键时期的中国来说,大有裨益。     

韩剧热播的社会效益及对中国电视剧的启示

近年来，韩国电视剧在儒家文化圈，特别是在中国传媒市场上呈现强劲趋势，给韩国带来了巨大的经济收益，带动了众多相关产业，甚至扭转了其他国家对韩民族的文化偏见。探讨韩剧如何火爆，对中国电视剧的发展有一定的启示。     

Can the Augmented Solow Model with Migration Explain the Italian Internal Brain Drain?

We extend the Dolado et al. (1994) model to both inflows and outflows of migrants and assume that they have a human capital endowment that contributes to increase/decrease the stock of human capital in the receiving/sending economy. We derive the conditional convergence equation in which the impact of migration flows on the growth rate is disentangled in a pure quantity effect and in a quality or composition effect of immigration and emigration rates that accounts for the relative human capital endowment of migrants with respect to resident population. Next, we test the model with Italian regional data for the 1970–2005 time period. We find that the model provides a good explanation of the Italian experience. The quantity effect is negative for the immigration rate and positive for the emigration rate, whereas the composition effect is positive for immigration and negative for emigration. Finally, we separate the centre‐north from the south and find that the composition effect of emigration is stronger for the latter. We interpret these results as a clear evidence of a brain drain from the Mezzogiorno to the centre‐northern regions.     

R语言在统计学教学中应用初探

在统计学教学中引入一款合适的统计软件就变得尤为重要,而R语言简单易学,统计分析功能强大,正好是统计教学辅助工具的最佳选择.文章通过一个简单的例子,逐步引导学生掌握R语言的应用,解决统计分析中的问题.     

高校科技对区域经济发展贡献率的实证分析

目前,技术进步逐渐成为促进区域经济发展的主要动力,而高校科技是推动我国科技进步的重要力量,它必然会对区域经济发展做出贡献。文章在选择适当计量模型的基础上,就辽宁省高校科技对区域经济发展的科技进步率和科技进步贡献率进行了实证分析。研究表明,高校的研发支出效率远高于其他科研机构的平均水平,高校科技对地方经济增长具有重大的推动作用。所以,应加大对高等院校科技投入,提高研发投入效率,以达到促进区域经济快速发展的目的。