施蛰存的诗歌翻译及其对当代诗歌的影响

施蛰存的文学创作是从诗开始的,他的文学翻译工作也是从诗开始的。施蛰存的文学翻译主张兼收并蓄,但他更热衷于现代主义诗歌的译介,他所翻译的外国现代主义诗歌作品一直影响到新时期的朦胧诗。     

Towards a Society for All Ages

Summary

Any social action plan, scheme, or program for welfare or intervention can be formulated only on the basis of data generated by research findings. Empirical data forms the backbone of the formulation of policy. This paper outlines the summary of the Indian research effort in the area of aging. An examination of the research trends shows both strengths and weaknesses. The generation of large and varied pieces of data across disciplines is a strength, while the absence of methodological rigor, integration of research effort, and the building of theory are the lacunae. The needs of the elderly, elder-care issues, State vs. family care, elder abuse, interventional and action plan research are some areas that need accentuation. Documentation of data, creation of databases, and a national body for overseeing research are requirements that cannot be delayed any longer.     

Confidence interval estimation of the difference between paired AUCs based on combined biomarkers

In many diagnostic studies, multiple diagnostic tests are performed on each subject or multiple disease markers are available. Commonly, the information should be combined to improve the diagnostic accuracy. We consider the problem of comparing the discriminatory abilities between two groups of biomarkers. Specifically, this article focuses on confidence interval estimation of the difference between paired AUCs based on optimally combined markers under the assumption of multivariate normality. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed generalized variable approach provides confidence intervals with satisfying coverage probabilities at finite sample sizes. The proposed method can also easily provide P-values for hypothesis testing. Application to analysis of a subset of data from a study on coronary heart disease illustrates the utility of the method in practice.     

An Automatic Test for the Umbrella Alternatives

The paper proposes a new test for detecting the umbrella pattern under a general non‐parametric scheme. The alternative asserts that the umbrella ordering holds while the hypothesis is its complement. The main focus is put on controlling the power function of the test outside the alternative. As a result, the asymptotic error of the first kind of the constructed solution is smaller than or equal to the fixed significance level α on the whole set where the umbrella ordering does not hold. Also, under finite sample sizes, this error is controlled to a satisfactory extent. A simulation study shows, among other things, that the new test improves upon the solution widely recommended in the literature of the subject. A routine, written in R, is attached as the Supporting Information file.     

Validation of Nonparametric Two-sample Bootstrap in ROC Analysis on Large Datasets

The nonparametric two-sample bootstrap is applied to computing uncertainties of measures in receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis on large datasets in areas such as biometrics, speaker recognition, etc. when the analytical method cannot be used. Its validation was studied by computing the standard errors of the area under ROC curve using the well-established analytical Mann–Whitney statistic method and also using the bootstrap. The analytical result is unique. The bootstrap results are expressed as a probability distribution due to its stochastic nature. The comparisons were carried out using relative errors and hypothesis testing. These match very well. This validation provides a sound foundation for such computations.     

理性极限及其突破断想

思维具有历史的特征.而理性思维只是人类思维的一个阶段.因此,理性思维及与之相对应的理性哲学都无法超越自身的历史局限.理性哲学缺失与当下生活的对应的根本原因就在于理性极限.而理性的偏见与虚妄的悲剧价值预设正是这种极限的表现.打破理性极限的前提是将理性还原于历史中并具体列出突破理性哲学的叙述方案.     

Nonparametric and semiparametric estimation of the three way receiver operating characteristic surface

In many situations the diagnostic decision is not limited to a binary choice. Binary statistical tools such as receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and area under the ROC curve (AUC) need to be expanded to address three-category classification problem. Previous authors have suggest various ways to model the extension of AUC but not the ROC surface. Only simple parametric approaches are proposed for modeling the ROC measure under the assumption that test results all follow normal distributions. We study the estimation methods of three-dimensional ROC surfaces with nonparametric and semiparametric estimators. Asymptotical results are provided as a basis for statistical inference. Simulation studies are performed to assess the validity of our proposed methods in finite samples. We consider an Alzheimer's disease example from a clinical study in the US as an illustration. The nonparametric and semiparametric modelling approaches for the three way ROC analysis can be readily generalized to diagnostic problems with more than three classes.     

《三国演义》小字注考索

考察《三国演义》小字注的来源及其功能,认定小字注虽非一人一时所加,但小字注极有可能在罗贯中原本中便已存在。通过一条带有时代标记的小字注,初步分析《三国演义》成书于明代的可能性极小。     

Social Skills in Children Adopted From Socially-Emotionally Depriving Institutions

This study assessed social skills in post-institutionalized (PI) children with respect to age at adoption, age at assessment, and gender. Parent ratings of social skills (Social Skills Rating System) and behavior problems (Child Behavior Checklist) were obtained for 214 children and 127 adolescents who were adopted from socially-emotionally depriving Russian institutions. Results showed that children adopted before 18 months of age have better social skills than those adopted after this age; those assessed in childhood demonstrate better social skills than those assessed in adolescence. PI females, especially later-adopted adolescents, have particularly poor social skills. Children with poor social skills tend to have higher rates of behavior problems.     

Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts with Bayesian Signal Detection Models

We propose the use of signal detection theory (SDT) to evaluate the performance of both probabilistic forecasting systems and individual forecasters. The main advantage of SDT is that it provides a principled way to distinguish the response from system diagnosticity, which is defined as the ability to distinguish events that occur from those that do not. There are two challenges in applying SDT to probabilistic forecasts. First, the SDT model must handle judged probabilities rather than the conventional binary decisions. Second, the model must be able to operate in the presence of sparse data generated within the context of human forecasting systems. Our approach is to specify a model of how individual forecasts are generated from underlying representations and use Bayesian inference to estimate the underlying latent parameters. Given our estimate of the underlying representations, features of the classic SDT model, such as the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the area under the ROC curve (AUC), follow immediately. We show how our approach allows ROC curves and AUCs to be applied to individuals within a group of forecasters, estimated as a function of time, and extended to measure differences in forecastability across different domains. Among the advantages of this method is that it depends only on the ordinal properties of the probabilistic forecasts. We conclude with a brief discussion of how this approach might facilitate decision making.