Noninformative priors for linear combinations of the normal means

In this paper, we develop noninformative priors for linear combinations of the means under the normal populations. It turns out that among the reference priors the one-at-a-time reference prior satisfies a second order probability matching criterion. Moreover, the second order probability matching priors match alternative coverage probabilities up to the second order and are also HPD matching priors. Our simulation study indicates that the one-at-a-time reference prior performs better than the other reference priors in terms of matching the target coverage probabilities in a frequentist sense.     

隋文帝死因新探

隋文帝杨坚之死 ,传统看法是被其子杨广弑杀。本文通过考证分析认为 :文帝在花甲之年纵欲过度是其身体虚弱、患病、死亡的根本原因 ;太子杨广对其父皇爱妃陈夫人的非礼行为及为政权和平顺利交接采取的种种防范措施 ,引起病危中的文帝的极大愤怒、怨恨和猜忌 ,是文帝于 64岁时气愤至极而死的直接原因。     

Compatible prior distributions for directed acyclic graph models

Summary.  The application of certain Bayesian techniques, such as the Bayes factor and model averaging, requires the specification of prior distributions on the parameters of alternative models. We propose a new method for constructing compatible priors on the parameters of models nested in a given directed acyclic graph model, using a conditioning approach. We define a class of parameterizations that is consistent with the modular structure of the directed acyclic graph and derive a procedure, that is invariant within this class, which we name reference conditioning.     

Barnwood

Abstract

Institutional repositories (IRs) have been developed and promoted primarily as a means to re-publish scholarly content previously published elsewhere—usually in journals, festschriften, or collections of articles. This essay discusses the use of IRs as the originating publisher of materials not previously published elsewhere and assesses their potential use as a viable “first resort” for scholarly publication and an already existing alternative to traditional commercial or university presses.     

参考利率风险调整思路的比较与重构

为准确核算包含风险管理服务的FISIM产出,2008版SNA提出了对参考利率进行风险调整的建议。鉴于国民核算专家提出的多种参考利率风险调整思路无法同时满足“实践性”、“稳定性”和“国际可比性”要求,联合国国民经济核算工作组(ISWGNA)建议继续开展关于参考利率风险调整思路的研究。本文阐释了风险调整参考利率法的基本原理,对参考利率风险调整的可能思路进行了探讨。通过对较有代表性的三类调整思路的分析,本文归纳了参考利率风险调整的分歧问题。进一步地,基于对风险管理服务机制的阐述和各国金融机构经营现状的考察,本文重新探讨了分歧问题并提出了一种新的参考利率风险调整思路。根据我国数据的检验表明,新的参考利率风险调整思路兼顾“实践性”、“稳定性”和“国际可比性”。     

FISIM核算方法的演进与研究进展

本文回顾了间接测算的金融中介服务（FISIM）核算方法的演进及其在中国的发展历程,同时对FISIM的最新研究进展进行梳理;国际上关于FISIM所含服务的构成,特别是风险管理和流动性转换及其对FISIM具体价格和数量的影响、FISIM的进出口核算与国际贸易的一致性、FISIM的物量核算、参考利率的确定等议题仍存在很大的研究空间。     

Bayesian Inference on Multivariate Normal Covariance and Precision Matrices in a Star-Shaped Model with Missing Data

In this article, we study Bayesian estimation for the covariance matrix Σ and the precision matrix Ω (the inverse of the covariance matrix) in the star-shaped model with missing data. Based on a Cholesky-type decomposition of the precision matrix Ω = Ψ′Ψ, where Ψ is a lower triangular matrix with positive diagonal elements, we develop the Jeffreys prior and a reference prior for Ψ. We then introduce a class of priors for Ψ, which includes the invariant Haar measures, Jeffreys prior, and reference prior. The posterior properties are discussed and the closed-form expressions for Bayesian estimators for the covariance matrix Σ and the precision matrix Ω are derived under the Stein loss, entropy loss, and symmetric loss. Some simulation results are given for illustration.     

从《聊斋志异》儿童形象探析蒲松龄心路

《聊斋志异》中的儿童形象大多缺乏个性,很少引起研究者的注意。他们常是因果报应观念的物质体现,成人视之如器物,常可生杀予夺;男孩则往往早慧而好读,或少年老成能为家庭排忧解难。小说中儿童形象的这些共性折射出了蒲氏自身的人生经历、心理及各种社会文化意识如佛教思想、男尊女卑等对他的深刻影响。     

漆艺对现代包装设计的参照效应

在现代包装设计离传统工艺美术越来越遥远的时代,我们在新的文化视野中如何认知传统漆艺与现代包装设计的关系,并使其转化为现代包装设计可持续发展的母体参照,是现代包装设计急待解决的问题。在后现代艺术设计思潮中,强调对历史传统风格、民族工艺与装饰艺术的借鉴,也正契合了这一思路。传统漆艺中对功能美、色彩美、装饰美的追求可以为现代包装设计的发展走出一条民族之路。     

论乡镇检察室的重建

乡镇检察室的重建具有重要的制度意义,但是同时也面临一些重要的制度问题和现实问题。重建乡镇检察室,必须完善法律依据,重新明确职责,充分理川页乡镇检察室与检察院内设部门之间的分工和利益关系。