Reference priors for linear models with general covariance structures

We develop a new class of reference priors for linear models with general covariance structures. A general Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is also proposed for implementing the computation. We present several examples to demonstrate the results: Bayesian penalized spline smoothing, a Bayesian approach to bivariate smoothing for a spatial model, and prior specification for structural equation models.     

走向刑事宪法?——以宪政框架下的法国刑事诉讼改革为背景

自2000年以来,宪法与刑事诉讼之间的微妙关系因频繁的刑事诉讼改革以及公民个案违宪审查权的创设而成为法国学术界最炙手可热的问题.刑事程序的合宪性规制技艺、内容设定以及效力范围均成为讨论的重中之重.法国宪法委员会在宪政框架下确保了刑事诉讼改革中的"公正优先,兼顾效率",构建了宪法与刑事诉讼法较为良性的互动.从比较法的角度看,法国的做法在欧洲大陆职权主义国家具有普适性.中国当下可能很难短时确立违宪审查机制,但可考虑在刑事诉讼法中确立序言性条款,允许法官在刑事诉讼法存有漏洞或与基本人权相冲突的情况下直接援引序言条款予以排除适用.     

A Note on Priors for the Multinomial Model

An “overall objective” prior proposed for the multinomial model is shown to be inadequate in the presence of zero counts. An earlier proposed reference prior for when interest is in a particular category suffers from similar problems. It is argued that there is no need to deviate from the uniform prior proposed by Jeffreys, for which links with a non-Bayesian approach, when prediction is of interest, are shown.     

On the Flatland paradox and limiting arguments

We revisit the Flatland paradox proposed by Stone (1976 Stone, M. 1976. Strong inconsistency from uniform priors. Journal of the American Statistical Association 71 (353):114–25.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), which is an example of non conglomerability. The main novelty in the analysis of the paradox is to consider marginal versus conditional models rather than proper versus improper priors. We show that in the first model a prior distribution should be considered as a probability measure, whereas, in the second one, a prior distribution should be considered in the projective space of measures. This induces two different kinds of limiting arguments which are useful to understand the paradox. We also show that the choice of a flat prior is not adapted to the structure of the parameter space and we consider an improper prior based on reference priors with nuisance parameters for which the Bayesian analysis matches the intuitive reasoning.     

Objective Bayesian Analysis for Log-logistic Distribution

In this article, Bayesian approach is applied to estimate the parameters of Log-logistic distribution under reference prior and Jeffreys’ prior. The reference prior is derived and it is found that the reference prior is also a second-order matching priors as for the case of any parameter of interest. The Bayesian estimators cannot be obtained in explicit forms. Metropolis within Gibbs sampling algorithm is used to obtain the Bayesian estimators. The Bayesian estimates are compared with the maximum likelihood estimates via simulation study. A real dataset is considered for illustrative purposes.     

网络环境下高校资料室的个性化信息服务

资料室个性化信息服务是资料室为满足本院系师生的个人信息需求而拓展的一项新的服务.从网络技术、网络资源和资料室的业务特点出发分析个性化信息服务的必要性和可行性,以及个性化服务的内容及其实现的途径.     

Defining the severely mentally disabled

A definition of the "known target population of severely mentally disabled" in community mental health centers is examined. Criteria include intensive treatment contact and persistent, severe disability, but not diagnosis. Feasible and reliable screening procedures are demonstrated. In the identified population, most subjects at some time had received a diagnosis of schizophrenia and had been on public assistance. These criteria apply to catchmented treatment systems and should be useful in services research.     

Bayesian analysis of the generalized gamma distribution using non-informative priors

The Generalized gamma (GG) distribution plays an important role in statistical analysis. For this distribution, we derive non-informative priors using formal rules, such as Jeffreys prior, maximal data information prior and reference priors. We have shown that these most popular formal rules with natural ordering of parameters, lead to priors with improper posteriors. This problem is overcome by considering a prior averaging approach discussed in Berger et al. [Overall objective priors. Bayesian Analysis. 2015;10(1):189–221]. The obtained hybrid Jeffreys-reference prior is invariant under one-to-one transformations and yields a proper posterior distribution. We obtained good frequentist properties of the proposed prior using a detailed simulation study. Finally, an analysis of the maximum annual discharge of the river Rhine at Lobith is presented.     

考“睹当”——兼论《汉语大词典》“参见”关联的失误

近代汉语中出现的“睹当”、“堵当”、“覩当”、“赌当”等一组口语词之间存在形音义上的交叉关系，从一定程度上反映了汉语词汇是个立体性的系统。而《汉语大词典》对该组词所作的“参见”关联指引存在失误，不仅未能起到合理建构词汇系统、明确词汇源流演变过程的作用，反使其形音义关系混乱。反映《汉语大词典》“参见”关联指引存在界定模糊、不符合《汉语大词典》编纂方针的问题。