Towards an analytical theory of social change: the case of China

Lockwood argues that contradiction between the core institutional order and the material substructure of a society gives rise to potential social relationships which constitute a threat to the existing institutional order and may lead to change in the type of the society. Parkin, in particular, has advocated the application of the idea to the study of socialist societies. However, the situation of socialist China opposes Lockwood's view in that the new social relationships arising from the changing economic system do not pose a threat to the existing political system. Moreover, Lockwood underdevelops the connection between human action and social structure and does not theorize the mechanism linking system weakness and social change. This article formulates an alternative perspective by building on Giddens's structuration theory and Mouzelis's work on sociological theory. The theoretical framework is applied to China to give a flavour of how social change can be studied.     

A reference prior for the analysis of a response surface

Standard response surface methodology employs a second order polynomial model to locate the stationary point ξ$\mathit{\xi }$ of the true response function. To make Bayesian analysis more direct and simpler, we refer to an alternative and equivalent parametrization, which contains ξ$\mathit{\xi }$ as parameter of interest. The marginal reference prior of ξ$\mathit{\xi }$ is derived in its general form and particular cases are also given in detail, showing the Bayesian role of rotatability.     

论国际海上货物运输的法律冲突

在国际海上货物运输领域并存着三个国际公约,即海牙规则、维斯比规则及汉堡规则,这三个规则之间内容的分歧导致了许多法律冲突的产生;而各国国内法对涉外货物运输的不同规定更是加剧了这种冲突的严重性.文章着重对上述法律冲突进行分析,并就冲突的解决提出自己的观点.     

An optimal response adaptive biased coin design with k heteroscedastic treatments

For comparing treatments in clinical trials, Atkinson (1982) introduced optimal biased coins for balancing patients across treatment assignments by using D-optimality under the assumption of homoscedastic responses of different treatments. However, this assumption can be violated in many real applications. In this paper, we relax the homoscedasticity assumption in the k treatments setting with k>2. A general family of optimal response adaptive biased coin designs are proposed following Atkinson's procedure. Asymptotic properties of the proposed designs are obtained. Some advantages of the proposed design are discussed.     

计算机辅助自填式调查中敏感问题数据质量评价

 内容提要：已有的评价敏感问题调查方法的研究主要是通过比较不同调查方法下敏感行为发生率的高低,而运用平均回答问题时间来对敏感问题问卷质量进行评价的研究很少。本研究以2006年《中国人性行为和性关系》调查数据为例,根据平均回答时间来筛选问题样本。并对问题样本对应的被调查者和剩余被调查者的特征进行比较。还对该部分被调查者的自评价和相应地调查员给出的评价进行分析,结果显示问题样本对应的被调查者的特征、自评价以及调查员的评价在一定程度上得到了相互印证。因此根据平均回答时间来进行问题数据的识别是可行的。     

海恩法则在旅行社危机管理中的应用研究

在细分旅游危机种类的基础上,从提高危机防范意识、构建旅行社日常危机管理体系、成立旅行社危机管理部门以及实施举措等方面来研究＂海恩法则＂在旅行社危机管理中的应用。     

思辨英语视阈下的读者反馈理论综述

英语教学作为各阶段教育的重要组成部分,肩负着深化教学改革,满足新时期国家和社会对人才培养需求的重大任务。学生除了应当具备英语的综合应用能力之外,还应当具有一定的思辨能力。在各教育阶段的英语教学过程中应用Louise Rosenblatt开创的读者反馈理论(reader response theory)教授阅读,可以将教学模式从传统的“以老师为中心”转变为“以学生为中心”,并通过图式理论和反馈日记的辅助作用,逐步培养学生的思辨能力。国内外的教师和研究者应用读者反馈理论进行阅读教学的实践都证明,这一方法能够帮助学生逐步成为独立而有见地的阅读者,进而具有一定的思辨能力。