中国农村老年人生活满意度研究

基于2013年"中国健康与养老追踪调查"(CHARLS)数据,对中国农村老年人生活满意度的影响因素进行分析,重点关注新农保和新农合对生活满意度的影响。研究发现,性别、婚姻状况、是否有医疗保险、是否有亲人(除了配偶以外)或朋友能长期照顾对农村老年人生活满意度有显著影响。年龄和社交活动对农村老年人生活满意度的影响部分显著。根据研究结论,建议老龄问题立法层面应考虑性别差异,适度提升基础养老金水平,进一步发挥新农合的医疗保障作用并加强农村社区居家养老模式的建设。     

城市边缘地带地质灾害风险的形成与分配——以L市H社区的地质灾害为例

在风险社会中,既存在着普遍性风险,也存在着特殊性风险,考察特殊性风险的形成与分配应从微观层面入手。文章从风险社会学的角度研究L市边缘地带H社区的地质灾害风险。在梳理技术资料获取地质灾害风险形成的自然致灾因素之后,运用口头访谈方式直接从被访问者处获得一手资料,了解其个人生活史、进入社区的不同原因与方式、居住条件、生计方式等内容,探求直接或间接的影响该区域地质灾害风险形成的社会因素,最终得出该风险的分配原则:社会地位直接决定其风险地位。     

编辑审稿中的非学术因素及排除之策

学术期刊是学术和学科建设的重要阵地,应以学术性作为编辑审稿工作的唯一标准。然而,在现有学术评价体制的影响下,这一工作受到了诸多非学术因素的消极干扰,如以作者身份的高低而非稿件质量的高低来取舍稿件。这一非学术性倾向直接影响了审稿的公正性,也削弱了编辑审稿活动的意义,是学术评价异化的一种反映,不利于学术研究的正常进行和健康发展。编辑应该强化责任意识,自觉克服心理因素,排除思维定势,提高学术判断力,重视学术新人的发现和扶持,从而有效发挥学术期刊在学术和学科建设中的积极作用。     

试论双回路维稳模型

社会领域也存在某种惯性趋势,即社会趋稳性。这一概念的提出旨在说明,一切不稳定的产生,必定是受到某种作用力的结果。而社会趋稳性与变动力量的结合,便会造成不同程度的反作用力。这种反弹行为在实践中很容易被界定为＂不稳定因素＂。由于维稳的主客体都是人,而＂人是需求动物＂,所以,维稳的具体政策若不能够融入人的思考、理解及感情,将很难实现人际有效的沟通,进而妨碍动态稳定的实现。以组织平衡理论、需求层次理论、安全阀理论及组织学习理论为基础的双回路维稳模型的提出,旨在强调人类需求、基本秩序以及自然法则在维稳中的关键作用。     

基于稳健稀疏主成分的经济增长影响因素分析

从传统生产要素、制度、金融和经济结构等四个方面选取了19个影响中国经济增长的变量,运用稳健稀疏主成分方法进行实证分析。结果表明物质资本、城镇化率、金融深度、城镇居民消费结构、基尼系数、技术水平已成为促进中国经济增长的主要动力,但东、中、西部经济增长的主要影响因素互不相同。在此基础上就如何进一步促进中国经济增长和区域经济均衡发展提出了若干政策建议。     

建立以本土企业为主体的协同创新机制研究

改革开放以来，我国经济发展取得了巨大成就，但也面临一些重大挑战，特别是本土企业加入、依赖跨国公司主导的产业链，在短期内得以迅速发展的同时，也导致本土产业链出现了断裂和碎片化的问题，这对本土企业的创新和发展是不利的。文章研究在我国建立以本土企业为主体的协同创新机制的基本规律和特点，为提高本土企业的创新能力提供借鉴。研究的主要发现是，这是一个复杂和曲折的过程，在这一过程的启动阶段和转折阶段，非经济因素或者至少是长期经济因素而不是短期经济因素具有独特的、非常重要的作用。     

A Tiered Framework for Risk‐Relevant Characterization and Ranking of Chemical Exposures: Applications to the National Children's Study (NCS)

A challenge for large‐scale environmental health investigations such as the National Children's Study (NCS), is characterizing exposures to multiple, co‐occurring chemical agents with varying spatiotemporal concentrations and consequences modulated by biochemical, physiological, behavioral, socioeconomic, and environmental factors. Such investigations can benefit from systematic retrieval, analysis, and integration of diverse extant information on both contaminant patterns and exposure‐relevant factors. This requires development, evaluation, and deployment of informatics methods that support flexible access and analysis of multiattribute data across multiple spatiotemporal scales. A new “Tiered Exposure Ranking” (TiER) framework, developed to support various aspects of risk‐relevant exposure characterization, is described here, with examples demonstrating its application to the NCS. TiER utilizes advances in informatics computational methods, extant database content and availability, and integrative environmental/exposure/biological modeling to support both “discovery‐driven” and “hypothesis‐driven” analyses. “Tier 1” applications focus on “exposomic” pattern recognition for extracting information from multidimensional data sets, whereas second and higher tier applications utilize mechanistic models to develop risk‐relevant exposure metrics for populations and individuals. In this article, “tier 1” applications of TiER explore identification of potentially causative associations among risk factors, for prioritizing further studies, by considering publicly available demographic/socioeconomic, behavioral, and environmental data in relation to two health endpoints (preterm birth and low birth weight). A “tier 2” application develops estimates of pollutant mixture inhalation exposure indices for NCS counties, formulated to support risk characterization for these endpoints. Applications of TiER demonstrate the feasibility of developing risk‐relevant exposure characterizations for pollutants using extant environmental and demographic/socioeconomic data.     

湖南高校公共体育教师教学积极性的影响因素与对策研究

根据影响湖南省高校体育教学积极性因素的调查和分析，社会地位、教学工作成就感、职业压力、教学评价、教学条件等是影响湖南省高校体育教师教学积极性的主要因素，因此．应有相关对策加以解决。     

Does the Role of Student Factors with Adolescent Substance Use Vary by Geography?

This study assesses the association of 12th-grade student factors (e.g., grades, classroom misbehaviors) with substance use (i.e., binge drinking, cigarette smoking, marijuana) across large, medium-sized, and nonmetropolitan areas. Based on a sample of 2,189 students from the 2013 Monitoring the Future data set, logistic regression analyses showed that poor student academic and behavioral factors were associated with higher substance use after controlling for gender, race, and socioeconomic status. Interaction analyses further showed no significant differences in the influence of student factors on substance use across locales. Results suggest that prevention efforts against substance use should target student factors regardless of area of residency.     

Replication: Revisiting Tversky and Shafir’s (1992) Disjunction Effect with an extension comparing between and within subject designs

Does uncertainty about an outcome influence decisions? The sure-thing principle (Savage, 1954) posits that it should not, but Tversky and Shafir (1992) found that people regularly violate it in hypothetical gambling and vacation decisions, a phenomenon they termed “disjunction effect”. Very close replications and extensions of Tversky and Shafir (1992) were conducted in this paper (N = 890, MTurk). The target article demonstrated the effect using two paradigms in a between-subject design: here, an extension also testing a within-subject design, with design being randomly assigned was added. These results were consistent with the original findings for the “paying to know“ problem (original: Cramer’s V = 0.22, 95% (CI) [0.14, 0.32]; replication: Cramer’s V = 0.30, 95% CI [0.24, 0.37]), yet not for the “choice under risk” problem (original: Cramer’s V = 0.26, 95% CI [0.14, 0.39]; replication: Cramer’s V = 0.11, 95% CI [−0.07, 0.20]). The within-subject extension showed very similar results. Implications for the disjunction effect and judgment and decision-making theory are discussed, and a call for improvements on the statistical understanding of comparisons of between-subject and within-subject designs is introduced. All materials, data, and code are available on https://osf.io/gu58m/.