从生态思维方式三个视角分析社会主义核心价值体系

社会主义核心价值体系已成为学术界研究的热点。如何从新的角度深入理解社会主义核心价值体系,是研究走向纵深的必然要求。通过生态思维方式,基于生态学研究理论与方法,运用开放性、预见性、和谐性的思维视角解读社会主义核心价值体系,领悟普遍联系性、永恒发展性、对立统一性等特征。运用生态思维方式解读社会主义核心价值体系,具有一定的理论价值和实践意义。     

教派主义与叙利亚危机教派化机制浅析

关于教派因素在叙利亚危机中作用的现有研究多持工具论观点,忽视了教派身份认同被精英工具化的必要条件以及教派动员的微观机制。本文认为,教派因素确非叙利亚危机爆发的根本原因,但阿萨德家族统治时期叙利亚社会长期积累的教派间利益分流、社会区隔和敌对情绪,一定程度上构成了危机教派化的前提条件和大众动员的最初框架。2011年叙利亚危机爆发伊始,民间自发的地方性教派动员和暴力已然出现。叙国内外精英通过不同政策迅速直接或间接介入民间自发性的教派动员,制造或强化了历史积累和新近出现的教派敌意、利益冲突、能力、机会等因素,触发并加剧了“安全困境/暴力螺旋”和“群体内—群体间交互作用”两大机制,最终导致了危机的教派化。     

Substance use disorders and referral to treatment in substantiated cases of child maltreatment

Parents with substance use disorders (SUD) require treatment and support in order to provide children with appropriate care and protection. Using the 2012 National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System (NCANDS), this paper analysed 464 313 substantiated child maltreatment reports to determine (i) the proportion and characteristics of reports involving substance abuse; and (ii) the child and caregiver/perpetrator (C/P) characteristics that predicted referral to treatment as recorded in service plans. Findings indicate that 12% (N = 53 234) of maltreatment reports involved C/P SUD. Yet, of those reports, only (19%) (N = 10 088) were referred to substance abuse treatment as part of their service plan, indicating a large gap between those who need treatment and those who receive it. This finding is important given that parental SUD is consistently linked to poorer child outcomes. Amongst other variables, reports indicate that C/P with co‐occurring emotional disturbance were three times more likely to be referred to treatment for SUD as part of service plans. Additional research is needed regarding the characteristics that distinguish C/P who receive referrals for SUD treatment in substantiated cases of child maltreatment.     

我国残疾人服务体系的完善对策

中国残疾人服务体系亟待完善。推进残疾人服务体系建设必须注重发展的均等化与体系的一体化,设施的标准化与内容的规范化,队伍的专业化与评估的科学化,资源的多元化与管理的合理化。     

Whither practice-near research in the modernization programme? Policy blunders in children's services

In this article, we lament the effects of practice-distant research and associated policy initiatives on contemporary children's services in England. In the last decade, as a result of high profile inquiries into non-accidental child deaths, statutory children's social care services in the UK have been subject to a wide-reaching ‘modernization’ programme. We studied decision-making in the high blame environment of local authority children's services. Our research sought to examine the relationship between performance management and the impact of anticipated blame within the decision-making practices of those providing, supervising and managing these services. We show that systems and technologies can be developed which both assist the users in their daily work and achieve desired organizational goals, but without an ethnographically informed, practice-near approach, unsafe work regimes and practices can ensue.     

残疾儿童社会保障制度的研究

目前，政府通过发展社会保障以增进社会和谐的政策方向基本确立，倡导残疾儿童社会保障制度的适度公正机制是基于经济发展和现代社会平等两者之间的权衡。目的是使社会成员都能够普遍以适度标准不断享受经济社会发展的成果，从而有效地实现社会整合。我国已经初步具备实现残疾儿童社会保障制度的适度公正目标的条件，基于此目标，残疾儿童的社会保障制度仍存在以下制约瓶颈：相关社会保障制度建设法规滞后；政府保障主体地位缺失，财政经费投入不足；残疾儿童参与社会保障层次低、覆盖面窄；保障政策执行部门行政多头管理。因此，残疾儿童社会保障制度的制度设计需要着重于：保持经济发展水平下残疾儿童保障支付享受标准；倡导公正和能动的残疾儿童权利保障价值取向：界定政府责任边界和立法，广泛动员社会力量；整合政府部门残疾儿童社会保障资源。     

Quality and Reliability in Top-event Estimation: Quantitative Fault Tree Analysis in Case of Dependent Events

This article deals with the quantitative Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and the estimation method of the top-event in case of dependent events. It aims at addressing two main issues: (1) the decomposition of variability for the top-event according to several error components linked to the estimation of the top-event and sources of internal and external variations for a complex system; and (2) the definition of a Performance Measure Independent of Adjustment in order to set the quality of the top-event as a complex measure of the system failure. A simulated study applied to the health system is also carried out.     

论中国历史上的三次制度设计

自三代始，迄于近代，上下四千年。其间，制度设计之事，史不绝书。然而，择其具有原创意义、影响中国历史进程的制度设计，主要有三次，分别出现在周代、秦朝和近代。在中国文化语境中，古代制度设计权属于王和圣，虽为价值有涉，但也使“天下为家”体现出“天下为公”的理想。前两次制度设计以家天下政治为核心，先后形成了王制和帝制的模式；近代以孙中山为首的民族资产阶级的制度设计，效仿法、美模式，开启中国民主制度的先河，奠定了中国政治的基本方向。从历史背景、设计者及思想来源、系统性、创新性、本质性和对外影响来比较，三次制度设计既有相同性也存在着本质差别。三次制度设计对中国历史的进程有重要影响，可以作为中国历史上时代划分的标志。三次制度设计皆发生在中国历史转折时期，其影响之深远，意义之重大，留下了宝贵的历史经验、启示和借鉴。     

Extending systems thinking in planning and evaluation using group concept mapping and system dynamics to tackle complex problems

Group concept mapping (GCM) has been successfully employed in program planning and evaluation for over 25 years. The broader set of systems thinking methodologies (of which GCM is one), have only recently found their way into the field. We present an overview of systems thinking emerging from a system dynamics (SD) perspective, and illustrate the potential synergy between GCM and SD. As with GCM, participatory processes are frequently employed when building SD models; however, it can be challenging to engage a large and diverse group of stakeholders in the iterative cycles of divergent thinking and consensus building required, while maintaining a broad perspective on the issue being studied. GCM provides a compelling resource for overcoming this challenge, by richly engaging a diverse set of stakeholders in broad exploration, structuring, and prioritization. SD provides an opportunity to extend GCM findings by embedding constructs in a testable hypothesis (SD model) describing how system structure and changes in constructs affect outcomes over time. SD can be used to simulate the hypothesized dynamics inherent in GCM concept maps. We illustrate the potential of the marriage of these methodologies in a case study of BECOMING, a federally-funded program aimed at strengthening the cross-sector system of care for youth with severe emotional disturbances.     

学分绩点制在武汉七所部属高校的实践与探索

学分绩点制是一种能客观衡量学生学习质量的教学管理制度。学分绩点制在武汉地区七校联合办学实践中的应用,为联合办学的可持续发展提供了有益的探索。