联合国安理会制度有效性的考察

国际制度的有效性是衡量国际制度在多大程度上塑造和影响国际行为的一种尺度.从制度的功能到制度效果的研究轨迹,通过对2000-2005年期间联合国安理会所处理议题的分析,利用设定的评估方法,考察联合国安理会职能运行情况,可以得出结论:联合国安理会作为一种国际制度,它目前职能的发挥是复杂的,在预防冲突和解决冲突性的议题中安理会的职能无法得到充分发挥,制度有效性较差,而在冲突后的和平建设和全球性议题上安理会相对可以发挥比较充分的作用.     

中东安全形势回顾与展望

2008年国际形势发生的剧烈变化对中东安全局势造成重大冲击,中东地区紧张状况未发生根本变化。中东地区长期动荡,既有重要的外部背景,也有复杂的内部原因,2009年中东地区安全形势依然十分严峻,奥巴马对中东政策的调整不会改变美国在中东的基本目标,大国在中东的博弈呈现加剧的趋势。中东地区的热点问题将继续存在,宗教冲突可能成为地区动荡和不稳的新因素。中东地区的传统安全和非传统安全均十分突出,严重影响地区的安全与稳定。     

利比亚的核政策：历史与现实

出于对自身政权安全的考虑,利比亚早在1969年即开始秘密进行核武研发活动,直至2003年宣布弃核。由于同美国等西方国家存在很大矛盾,利比亚从20世纪八十年代末起遭受日益严厉的经济制裁,其经济社会发展受到严重制约,人民生活水平明显下降,进而诱发了人民的反政府情绪并给政治反对派以可乘之机。在此背景下,利比亚决定采取实际步骤改善与西方国家的关系,这是利比亚弃核的根本原因。而伊拉克战争强化了卡扎菲对其政权威胁严峻性的认识,则成为其弃核的直接原因。利比亚虽然宣布弃核,但随着国际和地区形势的变化,将来仍有重新踏上核武研发之路的可能。     

试析阿拉伯粮食安全问题

在世界粮食价格高企的背景下,阿拉伯粮食安全状况不容乐观,主要体现为各国粮食供应短缺、粮食外贸依存度增加、以及粮价持续走高。粮食安全不仅是经济问题,还是社会和政治问题。为了确保粮食安全,阿拉伯各国纷纷采取措施,联合制定了阿拉伯农业可持续发展战略,准备走农业一体化道路,但却面临着人口增速过快、自然资源短缺、农业生产方式落后、农业地位遭受忽视等多方面挑战。笔者认为,解决阿拉伯粮食安全问题是系统工程,既有技术性因素,也有政策性因素,但关键在于走联合保障之路。     

Data Mining for Network Intrusion Detection: A Comparison of Alternative Methods*

Intrusion detection systems help network administrators prepare for and deal with network security attacks. These systems collect information from a variety of systems and network sources, and analyze them for signs of intrusion and misuse. A variety of techniques have been employed for analysis ranging from traditional statistical methods to new data mining approaches. In this study the performance of three data mining methods in detecting network intrusion is examined. An experimental design (3times2x2) is created to evaluate the impact of three data mining methods, two data representation formats, and two data proportion schemes on the classification accuracy of intrusion detection systems. The results indicate that data mining methods and data proportion have a significant impact on classification accuracy. Within data mining methods, rough sets provide better accuracy, followed by neural networks and inductive learning. Balanced data proportion performs better than unbalanced data proportion. There are no major differences in performance between binary and integer data representation.     

Enterprise risk management for automation in correctional facilities with pandemic and other stressors

Real-time tracking of tool and equipment inventories is a critical function of many organizations and sectors. For prisons and correctional facilities, tracking and monitoring of assets such as cookware, hardware, keys, janitorial equipment, vocational/technical specialty tools, etc., is essential for safety, security, trust, efficiency, education, etc. The performance of automated systems for this purpose can be diminished by a variety of emergent and future sociotechnical factors alone and in combination. This article introduces a methodology for contractor evaluation and selection in acquisition of innovative asset management systems, with an emphasis on evolving system requirements under uncertainty. The methodology features a scenario-based preferences analysis of emergent and future conditions that are disruptive to the performance of the asset-control system. The conditions are across technologies, operating environments, regulations, workforce behaviors, offender behaviors, prices and markets, organizations, cyber threats, etc. The methodology addresses the influence and interaction of the conditions to disrupt system priorities. Examples include: (i) infectious disease disrupting priorities among requirements and (ii)  radio-frequency identification (RFID) and wireless-technology innovations disrupting priorities among stakeholders. The combinations of conditions that most and least matter for the system acquisition are characterized. The methodology constitutes a risk register for monitoring sources of risk to project performance, schedule, and cost throughout the system lifecycle. The results will be of interest to both practitioners and scholars engaged in systems acquisition as the pandemic interacts with other factors to affect risk, uncertainty, and resilience of organizational missions and operations.     

农业产业化经营利用证券市场的意义与途径

农业产业化经营出现了新的发展趋势 ,研究农业企业如何有效利用证券市场具有重要现实意义 ;研究农业产业化经营利用证券市场的意义和途径 ,对于克服农业产业化经营发展中遇到的一些问题 ,促进农业产业化经营健康发展具有重要意义