商品金融化背景下大宗商品指数收益机制转换

基于虚拟变量Markov机制转换模型,选取具有代表性的国际商品指数-标普高盛商品指数(S&P GSCI)及道琼斯大宗商品指数(DJCI)为研究对象,探寻大宗商品指数收益率机制转换出现的规律与诱因.实证结果表明:修正后的模型能较好地反映大宗商品指数收益率波动性呈现出的“中-高-中高-低-中”的阶段性变化,在阶段变换的拐点处商品指数呈现出具有转折意义的“V”形走势;金融危机前后的流动性冲击改变机制转化的概率.研究结果可以为预测大宗商品市场走势及阶段性转折点提供参考.     

Effects of attributed responsibility and response strategies on organizational reputation: A meta-analysis of situational crisis communication theory research

Scholars utilizing situational crisis communication theory (SCCT) mainly examine how attributed responsibility affects organizational reputation and how response strategies matched with the amount of attributed responsibility protect reputation. The findings on these 2 important questions have been mixed. A meta-analysis of 35 investigations from 24 studies published between January 1990 and March 2015 was conducted to explain the mixed findings and reveal average correlations. Attributed responsibility was strongly associated with reputation at –.54, and response strategies were only weakly associated with reputation at .23. Equally important, crisis vignette choice moderated the responsibility-reputation association. Crisis clusters, reputation measurements, sample choice, and crisis vignette choice moderated the match-reputation association. Theoretical, methodological, and practical implications were discussed.     

高校贫困生心理危机及对策研究

我国高等教育体制改革的深入和高校在校生规模的扩大使贫困生在高校日常教学管理中成为一个不容忽视的特殊团体。高校贫困生面临着来自经济、学习、就业等各个方面的压力，更容易产生心理危机。分析了当前高校贫困生心理危机的现状及其成因，从促进贫困生健康成长的角度，探讨了解决贫困生心理危机的对策。     

Migration aspirations of European youth in times of crisis

In recent years, the European Union (EU) passed through a significant economic crisis. All across Europe, European young people are among the groups which are hit hardest, with youth unemployment rates rising to over 50% in member states such as Greece and Spain. In the classical migration literature, it is suggested that such unfavourable economic climate would make people more likely to move abroad. Whereas in press releases we are regularly confronted with stories about South European young adults with tertiary education working in bars in Northern European cities, limited empirical evidence exists as such on the relationship between the recent Euro-crisis and migration aspirations. This paper addresses this gap in the academic literature. Using data from Flash Eurobarometer 395, I investigate which micro- and macro-level characteristics influence migration aspirations of young people across the member states of the EU. The results reveal the importance of individual characteristics and feelings of discontent with the current climate in explaining migration aspirations. Furthermore, I detect a negative relationship of relative welfare levels with migration aspirations, and a positive relationship of the youth unemployment ratio. Together, the results suggest that potential young intra-EU movers are positively selected from the population.     

Industrial relations and adjustments to the crisis: A comparative micro‐statistical analysis of France and Great Britain

In this comparative study, the authors analyse the relationships between industrial relations and workforce or wage adjustments in response to the 2007–08 crisis, using two highly comparable establishment‐level surveys conducted in Great Britain (WERS) and France (REPONSE) in 2010–12. Notwithstanding contextual differences in the countries’ productive systems and the timing and impact of the crisis, the relationships between industrial relations and adjustment strategies appear to have been similar (trade union presence not preventing adjustments). Differences in industrial relations are therefore not found to provide an explanation for the different modes of adjustment observed at the macroeconomic level.     

Never easy to say “sorry”: Exploring the interplay of crisis involvement,brand image,and message appeal in developing effective corporate apologies

This study examines how the interplay among crisis involvement, brand image, and message appeal impacts the effectiveness of an apology in the context of a corporate crisis. To determine apology effectiveness, a 2 (crisis involvement: high vs. low) × 2 (brand image: symbolic vs. functional) × 2 (message appeal type: emotional vs. informational) experimental design was employed. The results demonstrate that the three-way interaction is significant, especially in the low-crisis involvement condition. The study concludes with a discussion of theoretical and practical implications and directions for future research.     

A port in a storm: Spontaneous volunteering and grassroots movements in Amsterdam. A resilient approach to the (European) refugee crisis

This article seeks to expand knowledge about spontaneous volunteering in Amsterdam during the European refugee crisis in the winter of 2015–16. As formal institutions, which relied on a top–down command and control approach, were unable to handle the relatively large number of refugees who arrived in a short period of time, grassroots social movements based on bottom–up participation emerged. Grassroots volunteers were not only politically engaged, protesting against the strict refugee reception policy, but they also became involved in the crisis response, showing a great deal of flexibility. Although the social movements struggled with their organizational structures, they were able to adapt their missions and structures to changing circumstances. To achieve a resilience‐based response to future refugee influxes, this article advocates for formal response organizations to dismantle their static, top–down approach, and for social movements to find a balance between participation and professionalism. If institutionalized refugee response organizations adapt to the dynamics of local conditions, they could create the conditions for resilient solutions in the crisis context.     

Social policies and solidarity during the Greek Crisis

This article provides a succinct overview of the phenomenon of solidarization in crisis‐ridden Greece. Brief accounts of the pre‐ and post‐crisis situation in four core social policy areas (health, employment, housing, education) are combined with the presentation of four illustrative case studies, one for each of the aforementioned areas. Drawing on a broad range of primary and secondary data, including 20 in‐depth interviews with key stakeholders and end‐users of the actions examined, we argue that while the crisis provoked a further “residualization” of the institutionalized solidarity system, it also triggered the development of new solidarity ventures, both by state and non‐state actors, often even including partnerships between them. These ventures reflect the building of a bridge between institutionalized and informal solidarity in Greece and the shift towards a new type of mixed, although fragmented, mode of solidarity.     

Opportunities and Challenges for Public Libraries to Enhance Community Resilience

This study bridges a gap between public library and emergency management policy versus practice by examining the role of public libraries in the community resource network for disaster recovery. Specifically, this study identifies the opportunities and challenges for public libraries to fulfill their role as a FEMA‐designated essential community organization and enhance community resilience. The results indicate there are several opportunities for libraries to enhance community resilience by offering technology resources and assistance; providing office, meeting, and community living room space; serving as the last redundant communication channel and a repository for community information and disaster narratives; and adapting or expanding services already offered to meet the changing needs of the community. However, libraries also face challenges in enhancing community resilience, including the temptation to overcommit library capacity and staff capability beyond the library mission and a lack of long‐term disaster plans and collaboration with emergency managers and government officials. Implications for library and emergency management practice and crisis research are discussed.     

近十年来我国旅游危机研究的回顾和反思简

2003年以来一系列外部突发事件对旅游业的影响和冲击，进一步印证了旅游业具有高敏感性和易波动性的特点，学术界愈加关注旅游危机领域的理论研究和实证分析。根据中国期刊全文数据库相关文献检索，本文回顾近十年来旅游危机研究的进展和成果，探讨当前研究现状及存在不足，为今后进一步拓展和深化该领域研究提供指导和借鉴。