休谟与启蒙运动——基于《人性论》引言的思想史考察

当前对休谟的研究常把他和启蒙运动相隔裂.通过对休谟代表性著作《人性论》引言的分析,可以发现他和法国启蒙思想家共享认识世界的“力学模式”和实验方法,都试图将当时在英格兰兴起的“自然哲学”应用于人类境况,都致力于用对人类生活有用的经验研究所产生的新理论代替传统形而上学.同时,休谟对经验主义方法自身的局限有着更为健全的认识,主张在经验和可观察现象范围内的实验方法.这一认识在我们反思启蒙时极富价值.     

A likelihood ratio test to discriminate exponential–Poisson and gamma distributions

The exponential–Poisson (EP) distribution with scale and shape parameters β>0 and λ∈?, respectively, is a lifetime distribution obtained by mixing exponential and zero-truncated Poisson models. The EP distribution has been a good alternative to the gamma distribution for modelling lifetime, reliability and time intervals of successive natural disasters. Both EP and gamma distributions have some similarities and properties in common, for example, their densities may be strictly decreasing or unimodal, and their hazard rate functions may be decreasing, increasing or constant depending on their shape parameters. On the other hand, the EP distribution has several interesting applications based on stochastic representations involving maximum and minimum of iid exponential variables (with random sample size) which make it of distinguishable scientific importance from the gamma distribution. Given the similarities and different scientific relevance between these models, one question of interest is how to discriminate them. With this in mind, we propose a likelihood ratio test based on Cox's statistic to discriminate the EP and gamma distributions. The asymptotic distribution of the normalized logarithm of the ratio of the maximized likelihoods under two null hypotheses – data come from EP or gamma distributions – is provided. With this, we obtain the probabilities of correct selection. Hence, we propose to choose the model that maximizes the probability of correct selection (PCS). We also determinate the minimum sample size required to discriminate the EP and gamma distributions when the PCS and a given tolerance level based on some distance are before stated. A simulation study to evaluate the accuracy of the asymptotic probabilities of correct selection is also presented. The paper is motivated by two applications to real data sets.     

Inference for quantile measures of kurtosis,peakedness, and tail weight

Insight into measures of peakedness, heavy-tailedness, and kurtosis can be gained by studying Ruppert’s ratios of interquantile ranges. They are not only monotone in Horn’s measure of peakedness when applied to the central portion of the population, but also monotone in the practical tail-index of Morgenthaler and Tukey, when applied to the tails. Non-parametric confidence intervals are found for Ruppert’s ratios, and sample sizes required to obtain such intervals for a pre-specified relative width and level are provided. In addition, the empirical power of distribution-free tests for peakedness and bimodality are found for some symmetric distributions.     

Sexuality in Older Adults (65+)—An Overview of the Literature,Part 1: Sexual Function and its Difficulties

Objectives: The aim of the current article was to provide an overview of literature on sexual function and sexual difficulties in older adults. Method: The authors conducted a narrative review of papers published in English between January 2005 and July 2015 based on an extensive search in PsycINFO. Results: The review showed that although common biological changes may adversely affect sexual function in old age, sexual experience seems to also be affected by psychological and interpersonal factors. Conclusions: Greater life expectancy and better medical care will result in older individuals with chronic diseases living longer. The need for help to cope with changes in sexual health is likely to increase in older adults, as sexuality may be negatively affected through several pathways.     

负重前行：创伤视角下的奥古斯特·威尔逊

美国黑人剧作家奥古斯特·威尔逊以其＂20世纪黑人体验史＂系列剧而著名。他对黑人历史的关注源于自身的创伤经历。从文化创伤角度来探讨,威尔逊作品中的一个持续主题是,作为背负历史创伤的族裔,黑人怎样能既不忘记奴隶制、种族歧视的痛苦历史,又要走出它产生的创伤阴影。通过分析其三部代表性作品可以看出,他的态度是：只有正确认识理解过去、将个人记忆和集体记忆相连,个体和个体发生关联、共同承担创伤,黑人才能汲取力量、继续前行。其作品体现出威尔逊通过对文化创伤的塑造建构族裔认同的不懈努力。     

Beyond Petliura: the Ukrainian national movement and the 1919 pogroms

On the basis of largely unused archival materials in Kyiv, this article re-examines the responsibility of the Ukrainian People’s Republic (UNR) for the pogroms of 1919. It consciously puts aside the question of Symon Petliura’s personal guilt, preferring to concentrate on the broader responsibility of members of the Ukrainian national movement for propagating antisemitic stereotypes and engaging in anti-Jewish violence. This approach reveals a widely held belief among members of the UNR that they were fighting a Jewish Bolshevik enemy. This led to pogroms but also probably prevented the UNR from punishing its soldiers who had perpetrated them. Despite the declarations by UNR figures condemning pogroms and the creation of an organ to investigate them, there were apparently very few, if any, convictions, at least in 1919, the year of the worst pogroms.     

Testing Wagner's Law in India: A cointegration and causality analysis

The present study empirically analyzes the validity of Wagner's Law for Indian economy. With the use of annual time series data from 1970–71 to 2013–14, all the six versions of Wagner's Law have been analyzed to test the relationship between government expenditure and gross domestic product. Wagner's Law states that the economic growth is the causative factor of the growth of the public expenditure. The study applied the unit root test and cointegration test to find the long-run relationship between government expenditure and gross domestic product. The present study employed the various econometric techniques such as unit root test, cointegration, and causality analysis for empirical analysis. The empirical analysis under study inferred mixed results of Wagner's Law for Indian economy, where four versions, namely Peacock, Gupta, Guffman, and Musgrave, found valid for Indian economy. The study concluded that the Wagner's Law is valid for the Indian economy except the Pryor and Mann Versions of the Wagner's Law.     

论党的群众工作优良传统与社会工作创新

群众工作是我党的优良传统和政治优势,社会工作是解决社会问题的重要手段,在社会主义全面深化改革阶段,面临新的社会形势,群众工作与社会工作迫切需要创新。将党的群众工作优良传统与社会工作创新结合起来探讨,一方面有利于群众工作的创新;另一方面有利于社会工作的本土化发展。     

“一带一路”战略为中阿关系发展增添活力

本文对历经六十年的中阿关系进行了回顾，政治上双方相互支持，维护权利，经济上优势互补，合作共赢。2010年底中东发生动荡后，中国一直密切关注，希望阿拉伯国家早日结束动乱、恢复稳定。随着时间的推移，阿拉伯国家会增加对中国尊重国家主权独立、坚持不干涉内政、主张政治解决争端立场的理解，会越来越体会到中国是可以信赖、可以交往的国家。在“一带一路”战略下，中阿关系将茁壮成长。     

The impact of age,BMI and sex hormone on aging males’ symptoms and the international index of erectile function scores

Objective: To analyze the impact of age, BMI and sex hormone on aging males’ symptoms (AMS) and the 5-item version of the international index of erectile function (IIEF-5) scores in middle-aged and elderly Chinese men.

Methods: A population-based cross-sectional study was conducted in Jiashan County. A total of 969 men, aged between 40 and 80 years old, were admitted. Physical examination and the sex hormones were measured, and AMS and IIEF-5 scores were assessed.

Results: The oneway ANOVA analysis indicated older age groups had higher AMS total-scores, somatic and sexual sub-scores, and lower IIEF5 scores (all p?r_pairwise) analyses showed the significant associations between AMS and age or sex hormone (cFT, Bio-T, SHBG, and LH) levels, and similar for IIEF5. However, when age was adjusted, the correlation coefficients (r_partial) weakened, and correlation significance disappeared, except LH (for AMS: r_partial?=?0.096, p?=?.009; for IIEF-5: r_partial?= ?0.140, p?=?.001). Multiple linear regressions confirmed the influence of increased age and LH on the AMS and IIEF5 scores.

Conclusion: CFT, Bio-T and SHBG failed to yield any additional predicting information when age was adjusted. To improve the male reproductive health, future research should pay more attention on aging-related comorbidities and how to improve general wellness.