Transient detailed balance and product form for reaction networks

This paper explores the boundary of the set of reaction networks that have an exact transient (truncated) multidimensional Poisson or product-form distribution for the number of particles of different types. Motivated by the birth–death process, we introduce the notions of transient detailed balance and delay functions, and use these notions to obtain the novel transient product-form distribution in a coagulation-fragmentation process for polymers with a tree-like structure from that of the pure coagulation process.     

Policy instrument affordances: a framework for analysis

The present study uses the concept of technological efficacy derived from ecological psychology and design studies to offer an alternative way of analyzing how policy instruments affect change. Reasoning from this, the paper outlines a framework for analyzing policy instruments in terms of their affordances. We define affordances as the means through which an instrument exerts influence on its intended target audience. Using this approach, we contend that policy instruments may be analyzed as interfaces that organize social relations and create structures of opportunity and/or restrict possibilities for action. We argue that explicating the pathways through which instruments afford or constrain action is a central task for policy analysis. Our proposed framework of analysis builds on the idea that instruments yield effects by facilitating action and learning. We further contend that the actions that an instrument can facilitate or inhibit are determined by specific affordance modalities of the instrument in conjunction with contingencies of the actor and the policy environment. Examples from research policy are used to illustrate some of these effects.     

基于需要层次理论的保险代理人分类激励机制指标体系设计

针对保险代理人的具体情况和实际需求，将马斯洛的需要层次理论灵活地应用到实际当中，设计出一系列量化分类指标，运用数理统计方法，进行加权汇总后得出几个总值，对这几个总值的大小进行排序，根据排序的结果科学理性地将保险代理人分成若干类别，在对保险代理人管理过程中可以针对不同类别的代理人采取不同激励措施，进而有效而又低成本地解决保险业对代理人激励不力的问题。     

The Roles Played by the Staff and Workers’ Representative Congress in the Formation of Work Regulations

Article 4 of the Labor Contract Law lays down the right of the Staff and Workers’ Representative Congress (SWRC) to deliberate on the formulation of (intra-enterprise) work regulations, but this has become a “soft” law in judicial practice. The judicial criteria for judging the validity of work regulations are in essence determined by the judge’s judgment on their reasonableness. As an important embodiment of Chinese politics, economics and culture, the transformation of the SWRC that accompanied the market economy has not negated its value as an indigenous traditional resource. The SWRC does not just enjoy deliberative rights in the formation of regulations, as clearly specified in constitutional law, but also has rights under the law in local legislation and practice. Hence the system of work regulations is neither a unilateral decision on the part of management nor a contract, but rather an autonomous norm developed through the SWRC mechanism. Given the mandatory nature of Article 4 of the Labor Contract Law, regulations will only be valid after they have gone through a democratic process. The further development of the theory of normative system formation should endow the SWRC with greater rights and integrate it smoothly with the collective contract system to standardize collective labor relations.     

A multicriteria sorting approach based on data envelopment analysis for R&D project selection problem

In this paper, multiple criteria sorting methods based on data envelopment analysis (DEA) are developed to evaluate research and development (R&D) projects. The weight intervals of the criteria are obtained from Interval Analytic Hierarchy Process and employed as the assurance region constraints of models. Based on data envelopment analysis, two threshold estimation models, and five assignment models are developed for sorting. In addition to sorting, these models also provide ranking of the projects. The developed approach and the well-known sorting method UTADIS are applied to a real case study to analyze the R&D projects proposed to a grant program executed by a government funding agency in 2009. A five level R&D project selection criteria hierarchy and an assisting point allocation guide are defined to measure and quantify the performance of the projects. In the case study, the developed methods are observed to be more stable than UTADIS.     

Monotonic change point estimation of generalized linear model-based regression profiles

In this article, a maximum likelihood estimator is derived in the generalized linear model-based regression profiles under monotonic change in Phase II. The performance of the proposed estimator is comprehensively investigated through some special cases, and compared with estimators under step change and drift. The results show that the proposed estimator has better performance in small and medium shifts under different increasing changes. Finally, the applicability of the proposed estimator is illustrated using a real case.     

Bayesian parameter inference for stochastic SIR epidemic model with hyperbolic diffusion

This paper is concerned with the Bayesian estimation parameters of the stochastic SIR (Susceptible-Infective-Removed) epidemic model from the trajectory data. Specifically, the data from the count of both infectives and susceptibles is assumed to be available on some time grid as the epidemic progresses. The diffusion approximation of the appropriate jump process is then used to estimate missing data between every pair of observation times. If the time step of imputations is small enough, we derive the posterior distributions of the infection and recovery rates using the Milstein scheme. The paper also presents Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation that demonstrates that the method provides accurate estimates, as illustrated by the synthetic data from SIR epidemic model and the real data.     

Incorporating balance concerns in resource allocation decisions: A bi-criteria modelling approach

We consider resource allocation problems where inputs are allocated to different entities such as activities, projects or departments. In such problems a common goal is achieving a desired balance in the allocation over different categories of the entities. We propose a bi-criteria framework for trading balance off against efficiency. We define and categorise indicators based on balance distribution and propose formulations and solution algorithms which provide insight into the balance-efficiency tradeoff. We illustrate our models by applying them to the data of a portfolio selection problem faced by a science funding agency and to randomly generated large-sized problem instances to demonstrate computational feasibility.     

LAN property for an ergodic Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process with Poisson jumps

In this article, we consider an ergodic Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process with jumps driven by a Brownian motion and a compensated Poisson process, whose drift and diffusion coefficients as well as its jump intensity depend on unknown parameters. Considering the process discretely observed at high frequency, we derive the local asymptotic normality property. To obtain this result, Malliavin calculus and Girsanov’s theorem are applied to write the log-likelihood ratio in terms of sums of conditional expectations, for which a central limit theorem for triangular arrays can be applied.     

A comparison of maximum likelihood and least squares for the estimation of a cumulative distribution

Monte Carlo methods are used to compare the methods of maximum likelihood and least squares to estimate a cumulative distribution function. When the probabilistic model used is correct or nearly correct, the two methods produce similar results with the MLE usually slightly superior When an incorrect model is used, or when the data is contaminated, the least squares technique often gives substantially superior results.