Who captures the marks for the Petersen estimator?

Summary.  We examine the claim that the well-known Petersen estimator which is used in population size estimation was not in fact used by the scientist after whom it is named. We show how, in the early years of the last century, the modern use of the Petersen estimator grew from that of the fishing coefficient. Contending with the somewhat conflicting claims that were made at the time, and what by modern standards is poor referencing of sources, we investigate where the credit lies for these concepts, and the principles and protocols which support them. We assess also how far attributions of credit were affected by practical considerations, and the history of the estimator by the nature of the problems being pursued. We identify scientists whose early work on marking and estimating fish populations deserves more credit than it has received.     

财政支出的效率与规模——基于中国的实证分析

运用1978～2004年中国实际国内生产总值和实际政府财政支出的数据，对中国政府规模与经济增长的关系进行实证研究，利用Barro定律及Karras实证方法估计中国政府的政府支出的生产效率及最优规模。并运用Granger因果关系检验了真实GDP、实际政府支出两者之间的因果关系。结果表明：中国的政府财政支出是具有生产性的且政府最优规模为国内生产总值的28．2％（±3％）；中国经济增长是政府规模增长的Granger原因，实证结论支持了瓦格纳定律。     

Non-parametric estimation of population size from capture–recapture data when the capture probability depends on a covariate

Summary.  In capture–recapture experiments the capture probabilities may depend on individual covariates such as an individual's weight or age. Typically this dependence is modelled through simple parametric functions of the covariates. Here we first demonstrate that misspecification of the model can produce biased estimates and subsequently develop a non-parametric procedure to estimate the functional relationship between the probability of capture and a single covariate. This estimator is then incorporated in a Horvitz–Thompson estimator to estimate the size of the population. The resulting estimators are evaluated in a simulation study and applied to a data set on captures of the Mountain Pygmy Possum.     

陈望道的办刊实践和新闻教育思想

陈望道是一位对中国学术事业发展卓有贡献的学者、教育家。他的一生基本上在复旦大学度过．他对复旦大学的贡献很大，其中之一便是把复旦的新闻院系建成了中国新闻院系中历史最悠久、唯一薪火不断的院系。陈望道早期从事办刊物、开书铺的实践，对他新闻教育思想的形成有着很大的关联性。他是复旦大学新闻系的创办者之一，他的新闻教育思想集中体现在由他确定的系铭——“好学力行”四个字上。好学力行，成了复旦大学新闻教育的优良传统和教育目标。陈望道对复旦新闻系所作的开拓性建设，实际上也是对我国新闻教育的建设性贡献。     

An Asymptotic Analysis of the Logrank Test

Asymptotic expansions for the null distribution of the logrank statistic and its distribution under local proportional hazards alternatives are developed in the case of iid observations. The results, which are derived from the work of Gu (1992) and Taniguchi (1992), are easy to interpret, and provide some theoretical justification for many behavioral characteristics of the logrank test that have been previously observed in simulation studies. We focus primarily upon (i) the inadequacy of the usual normal approximation under treatment group imbalance; and, (ii) the effects of treatment group imbalance on power and sample size calculations. A simple transformation of the logrank statistic is also derived based on results in Konishi (1991) and is found to substantially improve the standard normal approximation to its distribution under the null hypothesis of no survival difference when there is treatment group imbalance. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

揭开千古人豪刘伯温与俞源的神秘面纱——刘基为俞源村设计太极星象真伪考辩

本文从刘基政治生涯的特定历史背景及俞源的地质、地貌、水文地质等方面对刘基为俞源村设计、建造太极星象说的观点进行驳斥，把刘基从神坛位置上请到了武义的地面人间，揭开了刘基与武义神秘莫测的面纱。刘基及其在武义留下的“刘基文化”是一笔不可多得的宝贵财富，在当时、今天乃至将来，都将在政治、经济、文化、社会生活、民俗风情等领域产生深远的影响。     

A new mixture model for capture heterogeneity

Summary.  We propose a mixture of binomial and beta–binomial distributions for estimating the size of closed populations. The new mixture model is applied to several real capture–recapture data sets and is shown to provide a convenient, objective framework for model selection. The new model is compared with three alternative models in a simulation study, and the results shed light on the general performance of models in this area. The new model provides a robust flexible analysis, which automatically deals with small capture probabilities.     

配合尺寸公差中心范围加工法的应用与研究

目前机械加工企业根据国际标准偏差加工工件，由于受操作者主观因素的影响，工艺能力下降，工程等级降低，不能满足产品质量的要求，而配合尺寸公差中心范围加工法则很好地解决了这一问题。笔者论述了机为加工的质量特征分析，通过实例论证了配合尺寸公差中心范围加工法与传统加工方法的优越性与可行性。     

Gamers’ confidants: Massively Multiplayer Online Game participation and core networks in China

Through a survey of more than 18,000 participants in a Chinese Massively Multiplayer Online Game (MMOG), this study examines how the size and diversity of Chinese gamers’ core networks vary by individuals’ sociodemographic, socioeconomic and game-related characteristics. It represents the first study focusing exclusively on the gamer population and one of the most recent examining personal networks in contemporary China, home to over 560 million Internet users. We found that Chinese gamers have notably larger and more diverse core networks than those of major studies. Coplaying patterns and attachment to the game community contributed significantly to network size and diversity.     

中国上市公司监事会规模和构成的影响因素

理论分析表明,监事会规模及构成内生于公司风险。文章构建联立方程模型实证考察了监事会规模和构成的影响因素,在控制了内生性和制度因素影响后发现：公司经营范围、监督收益对监事会规模和职工监事比例有显著正向影响;监督成本、管理者权力对监事会规模和职工监事比例有显著负向影响。还发现：在控制了监事会规模和构成的影响因素后,监事会规模和职工监事比例与公司风险并没有统计意义上的相关性,表明监事会未能有效发挥降低公司风险的治理作用。因此,加强监事会能力建设,推进公司治理体系和治理能力现代化,仍将是中国公司治理改革努力的方向。